Indices Review for Week 9/4/2012

I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 7/4/12.  My Indices Review and my Trading Week review.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Trading Week Analysis as well so that you understand what I am looking for in the pairs this week.

USDX

Monthly: Trend up overall.  Chart could still be forming a bull flag pattern as mentioned last week.  Trend line breaks will be watched for.

Weekly:  Trend up overall / sideways. Price is trading within a symmetrical triangle but, also, does look like it could still be forming a bull flag pattern, as mentioned last week and above. 

Daily:  Sideways/Ranging. Price is bouncing within a symmetrical triangle pattern.

4hr: Up.  Price broke out of the narrow trading range where it was bound for many sessions some weeks ago; the 79.5 – 78.5 range.  Price is currently struggling on its upward journey near the key resistance level of 80. The bear trend line of the symmetrical triangle is just above price; at the 80.3 area. The DMI lines are both below 20 though and the ADX is trending down, revealing a lack of trend just at the moment. The Bollinger bands are closing in very tightly too.

Thoughts:  I say again, we are STILL at critical levels across the broader markets.  The DOW is still holding above the 78.6% breakout 13,000 level.  The S&P has weakened though and is just below its key 1,400 breakout level. I keep saying, this could be a market top or, just a pause before the next big up move which could spell a falling USD.

I will look to LONG the USD in pairs on valid TS signals and if price breaks, closes and holds above the 80 level and, then, above the upper triangle trend line. 

I will look to SHORT the USD in pairs on valid TS signals and if price keeps below 80 level.

As always, Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices.  These events can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.

EURX

Monthly:  Trend down. I have re-drawn the trend lines for this index.  Price is now trading within a large descending wedge pattern.  There is an extra, steeper, bear trend line in play as well.

Weekly:  Trend sideways/down.  Price has bounced off the lower of the two bear trend lines.

Daily: Trend sideways/down.  Price is now trading within the smaller of the two descending wedge patterns. 

4 hr: Trend sideways/down.  Price is trending down within a descending wedge pattern now.  There is little resistance to its downward path.  There might be some support offered at the psychological whole number level of 103 though.  This level has offered some support to price in the past. 

Thoughts:  I will look to SHORT the Eur in pairs on valid TS signals if the EURX breaks, closes and holds below the 103 level. 

I will look to LONG the Eur in pairs on any new TS signal and if the EURX trends back upwards.  There is a bit of resistance in its upward path though; monthly pivots and 4 hr 200 EMA.