I have
posted 2 reviews today, Sunday 29/4/12. My Indices Review and
my Trading Week review. Only one e-mail alert will be
sent though most likely. Please make sure that you read the Trading
Week Analysis as well so that you understand what I am looking
for in the pairs this week.
USDX
Monthly: Trend up overall/turning sideways. The current monthly candle still looks to be
forming a shooting star but has a few days yet to close. This could be read as
a bearish signal given that this candle is appearing after a recent ‘run up’ of
about 5 months.
Weekly: Trend still bouncing
sideways. Price has broken down from trading within a symmetrical triangle.
Last week’s candle was another large bearish candle.
Daily: Ranging. Friday’s
candle was a large bearish engulfing candle.
4hr: Down. Price opened the
week under the 79.50 and tried to break back up on Monday but, essentially,
kept falling after that. Price also tried to break up through the broken
triangle trend line later in the week but failed at that too. Price is now
sitting at 78.72 which, strangely, is a previous level of support. It could
even be viewed as forming a double bottom pattern at this level. I have shown
an extra 4 hr chart of USDX condensed price action with this support level
shown as a bold pink trend line and I have labelled the possible double bottom
action. The last 4hr candle on Friday was a shooting star which some may read
as the beginnings of a bounce. I’m wondering though if it was just people
exiting their short USD positions prior to the w/e.
Thoughts: This paragraph is
STILL relevant: We are STILL at key
levels across the broader markets. The DOW is back above the 78.6% breakout
13,000 level and the S&P is back above its key 1,400 breakout level. There
is still the possibility for market sentiment to move in either direction from
here, although the BULLS do seem to have a lot of persuasion at the moment. Negative
news seems to have only short term impact.
The USD looks bearish. I will
continue to take a bearish view on this index but will watch carefully to see
if the current price level, which is previous support, can be broken.
I will look to LONG the USD in
pairs on valid TS signals if price on the USDX reverses and bounces back up
from its current level.
I will look to SHORT the USD in
pairs on valid TS signals and if price on the USDX continues with its bearish
movement.
As always, Fundamentals, by way
of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price
movement on the indices. These events
can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.
EURX
Monthly: Trend down. This
chart is essentially the same as it was last week. Price is still trading
within a large descending wedge pattern.
There is an extra, steeper, bear trend line in play as well. The current
monthly candle is bearish.
Weekly: Trend sideways/up.
Last week’s candle was an indecision spinning top candle.
Daily: Trend sideways. Price
is still trading within the smaller of the two descending wedge patterns. Price
traded just above 103 all week and near the weekly pivot.
4 hr: Trend sideways/ ranging.
Price has continued to bounce sideways in a range around the weekly
pivot between 103 and just under the 4hr 200 EMA for most of the week. This has
been the pattern for over 3 weeks now as shown in highlight on the chart.
Thoughts: I am really keen
to see this index break out from the narrow range of 103-104 that it has been bound
by for weeks.
I will look to SHORT the Eur in
pairs on valid TS signals if the EURX breaks, closes and holds below the 103
level.
I will look to LONG the Eur in
pairs on any new TS signal and if the EURX breaks closes and holds above the 4
hr 200 EMA.
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