The Chinese data was poor and this has halted 'risk on' for now. I tightened my stops to 10 pips before the news so I didn't lose much on these guesses. I should emphasise here that these trades (E/U and A/U long) were speculative trades and not based on new TS signals on the 4hr charts.
The USD/SGD yielded a huge 110 pips until the news release though. The A/U ended up giving around 90 too. Not bad for TS! I had avoided this TS signal due to a lack of movement on the USDX. I am finding, more and more, that this pair does its own thing though. I'm thinking I should just take TS signals on this pair when they appear without cross referencing to the USDX.
Now I really do head off.
I'm leaving for a w/e away now. I'll check in later if I can.
Friday 13/4/ (6.30 am)
As suspected, the USDX broke down below the key support of 79.5 overnight. This break also breached the 4hr 200 EMA, weekly and monthly pivots. There seems to be a real yearning to trade 'risk on'. The broader markets were up overnight on the falling dollar too; with the DOW finishing just below the key 13,000 level.
The USDX now has the triangle trend line in its downward path and the EURX has the psychological 104 level and 4hr 200 EMA in its upward path.
So far: The USD/SGD short delivered up to 75 pips, the A/U delivered 90 but the A/J gave only 50 pips; all pretty good considering the week that we have had.
I've now got new signals on the E/U and E/J to go long. The E/U is currently up and sitting on the 4hr 200 EMA, seemingly, waiting to decide what to do from this point on! Similarly, the E/J is tucked under its daily 200 EMA. The A/U is also hiding just under the 4hr 200 EMA and acting like it's trying to gather strength to burst through this. There is key Chinese data due out later today that I think the currencies, as well as the broader markets, are keenly waiting upon and 'holding their breath' for. It is Friday the 13th though guys!
I'm not going to be here for most of today but...I've taken longs on the E/U and A/U with small stops. I shouldn't have closed the A/J long!
The indices are still bouncing but the USDX is getting closer to breaking down below the 79.5 level, albeit not yet.
I've had signals on the A/J and A/U earlier (4pm candle close) as suspected. They are both up. The USD/SGD has also given +60 pips. BTW: I should not have closed my A/J but I have been a bit distracted. I've been doing some computer analysis of my TS system and it is very exciting to say the least.
There are signals about to fire on the E/U, E/J, and G/U to name just a few that I watch. I suspect that these signals will kick in fully if the USDX breaks below the 79.5 level. I'll likely miss them if they do.
Also, I am away for this w/e from Fri noon until Sun night. I will not be posting during this time so my w/e analysis will be late; most likely on Monday am but at least this is before the London open.
Indices still bouncing. I closed my A/J long for a few pips.
Thursday 12/4 (3 pm)
I have to update a bit earlier this afternoon as I am out for a few hours. It is school holidays here and I am busy with family and kids.
The indices are still just moving sideways but the USDX is trying to have another push downwards as I write.
I still don't have any new signals on the major pairs yet. I think it will take more of a move on the indices to get some signals flowing. The USD/SGD short is still going though and is up 40 pips and still moving.
PS: I suspect that I will have signals to long the A/U and A/J after the next candle close at 4pm; 30 min away from now. I won't be here then though. I have jumped in early into a long on the A/J. It has less resistance above it for the moment. I may regret this early trade though!
PS: I suspect that I will have signals to long the A/U and A/J after the next candle close at 4pm; 30 min away from now. I won't be here then though. I have jumped in early into a long on the A/J. It has less resistance above it for the moment. I may regret this early trade though!
The indices are still little changed since earlier this morning.
The AUD data was better than expected which has sent the A/U up by about 50 pips but, interestingly, I don't have a full TS signal to long this pair just yet. The USD/SGD signal is still valid though but price is not moving very far or fast; although it is heading in the right direction.
The indices are pretty much unchanged since I last posted. There seems to be a bit of risk appetite starting with some of the currency pairs though.This is probably based on the broader markets trading positive overnight.
I'm going to try to hold out though from any 'risk on' trading until the USDX breaks below the 79.50, monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA area though.
The A/U is trying to form a TS long signal but I'll wait until after the red flag news data due out later today at 11.30 am Sydney time. The short USD/SGD is still going though and is now up 35 pips from the initial signal.
I got this in my e-mail today. It's worth a look if you have time. Dean Malone also comments on the market choppiness and looks for levels from which to trade bounces off smaller time frames. This type of trading is not for me though.
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/41112/41112.html
I got this in my e-mail today. It's worth a look if you have time. Dean Malone also comments on the market choppiness and looks for levels from which to trade bounces off smaller time frames. This type of trading is not for me though.
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/41112/41112.html
It seems that I didn't miss a thing last night. The indices are still bouncing and both are unable to clear major S/R levels to enable any follow through on the currency pairs. The USDX is still ranging but is now between 79.5 -80. Most of the currency pairs bobbed up and down overnight in a similar fashion to the indices. The broader markets were up overnight though but didn't manage to close above their previous key S/R levels.
The USD/SGD signal is still holding up for now but has only delivered a maximum of 30 pips so far. I still don't have signals on any of the other pairs I trade. TS is as good at keeping me out of poor trades as it is at getting me into good ones.
There is AUD data out later which is expected to be negative. I will see how this affects the the A/U.
Wednesday 11/4 (8 pm)
There is a bit more of a 'risk on' bias with the indices tonight so far. The USDX has yet to break below the 4hr 200 EMA, monthly pivot and 79.50 area though. This will be significant support for the index and I'd want to see these broken before being confident to trade 'risk on'.
I do have a TS short signal on the USD/SGD though BUT it needs to clear the monthly and weekly pivot first! Some other signals are close to forming and, if the USDX keeps falling, I would expect these signals to form by the next candle close at midnight.
Wednesday 11/4 (4.20pm)
It's back to Hokey Pokey action. There is 'risk on' sentiment continuing into the European session from the late Asian session. The USDX is falling and the EURX rising. Some TS 'long' signals are trying to form. The pre-market data shows the US to be trading positive, so far that is. I did post some more info on the April Stock page today which is relevant here.
I still want more, and stronger, clues from the indices that we are really back to 'risk on' though.
The indices are still just bouncing sideways with no clear new trend in sight. Not trend=no trade!
The A/U struggled against some heavy fund selling but has been buoyed by the release of some good Aussie data. It is now back to near where it opened. The TS signal, formed during the heavy fund selling, has now faded. I'm very wary about shorting this pair.
Wednesday 11/4 (11 am)
I'm not the only one wary of shorting the Yen pairs....read on....
Market steadies after some decent flows
Written by Sean Lee
April 11, 2012 at 00:25 GMT
April 11, 2012 at 00:25 GMT
Some heavy selling in the AUD has been soaked up by profit-takers and bottom-pickers it would seem, and the USD/JPY market has chosen to ignore the Asahi reports of additional easing at April 27th meeting. Regional stockmarkets are lower as risk sentiment turns sour but it’s difficult to go short the Yen crosses at these levels when more monetary easing seems inevitable. Best we wait for the picture to become clearer.
Wednesday 11/4 (10 am)
I have now received a TS sell signal on the A/U even though this 4 hr candle has 2 hrs until it closes. No signal on the E/U, G/U or USD/SGD though yet.
I did check on FX Live and saw these news items which probably explains some of the fall. I will wait until after some AUD news at 10.30 and 11.30 before trading this, if at all!
Written by Sean Lee
April 10, 2012 at 23:44 GMT
There has been some heavy turnover in the AUD this morning even though the ranges have been fairly tight. A large US macro fund has been selling the AUD heavily and the market is eyeing AUD stop-loss sell orders, not only in AUD/USD, but also in AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.
AUD/JPY: Hedge fund selling on Tokyo open
Written by Sean Lee
April 11, 2012 at 00:01 GMT
April 11, 2012 at 00:01 GMT
The bull flag pattern that I have been noting could still be evolving on the USDX.
Wednesday 11/4 (8 am)
I've just had my 8am candle close on my currency pairs. I still don't have a TS signal on any of them. This is weird. The A/U has broken below the daily trend line but, still, no signal. I'm gonna wait and see. I got caught on this pair last week...remember? If it turns back up it would then form a double bottom. BTW: the same double bottom scenario goes for the EURX if it turns back up! That is in the back of my mind when I look at the A/U. The other thing in the back of my mind is that POTENTIAL inverse H&S pattern on the E/U that I discussed in my blog post last w/e. (see chart again below). Mixed signals everywhere!
Anyway, if this really ends up being a market turn/correction with stocks, USD etc then, I would rather wait to short the E/U after a break and close of 1.3 and, also, long the USD/SGD.
We've had a huge fall across the broader US markets but, strangely, this hasn't translated into much movement on currencies.....yet. The USDX has continued to bounce and has not broken the 80 level and the EURX has done the same whilst holding above the 103 level.
I still don't have any TS signals that I would trade. I have had signals on the YEN pairs but I'm wary of them: short on E/J, A/J and U/J. I've also had a long on the Loonie but I'm leaving it too.
The E/U and G/U have bounced a bit.
The A/U has broken below the trend triangle trend line but I still don't have a new 4hr TS signal to short this at the moment. All rather odd.
The USD/SGD is also struggling to decide where to head next. This, and the Aussie, are probably mindful of the good Chinese data from yesterday. Who knows...it all smells a bit suspicious to me.
The Swissie is doing its 'I'm neutral' thing too.
Tuesday 10/4 (8 pm)
The USDX is currently trying to break up through the 80 level. The EURX is trying to hold up above the 103 level. This chop and change though means I still don not have any new TS signals though.
The indices are bouncing around still but there has been a return to 'risk off' with European markets opening. The USDX is having another up run and the EURX is heading down again. The ADX on both of these indices reveal that there is no clear trend just yet. So, no clear trend = no trend trading for me.
The sentiment across the Asian markets was for 'risk off' today as well. It is very hard to exercise patience whilst waiting for the indices to give some kind of trend direction.
BTW: I have re-drawn the trend lines on the USD/SGD to better reflect recent resistance levels.
Still no new TS signals yet. I want more of a clear idea from the indices about the new trend though anyway.
Tuesday 10/4 (4pm)
The Chinese data was positive but it didn't do much to lift 'risk on' trading. The indices have been up and down today.
No new TS signals. The previous E/U signal has faded a bit but the G/U one is still limping along.
Tuesday 10/4 (12 noon)
There is a 'risk on' sentiment this morning. I am reluctant to trade this before the release of the China Trade Balance data though.
I do have weak TS signal to LONG the E/U and a continuation signal to LONG the G/U though.
Tuesday 10/4 (11am)
Just an observation: all the Yen pairs are rising. I suspect this is due to BoJ easing on the Yen to stop it appreciating too much. I'm avoiding them for the time being unless there is a return to 'risk on' that moves in their current direction.
There is important China data due out today which may offer some direction.
The indices are still giving away little clue as to what the next new trend is going to be. They are both up and down with neither offering a clear trend on the ADX. The USDX is still trading just under the key 80 level but above its weekly pivot. The EURX is trading above its key support level of 103 but under its weekly pivot. There was a bit of 'risk on' sentiment overnight though with a falling USD for some of the time.
I do not have any new TS signals which is not surprising given this choppy movement.
The interesting thing to note though is that the broader markets had a sell off last night with the DOW closing below the key 13,000 level and the S&P500 still below its 1,400 level. This could spell a return to 'risk off' which I would suspect might be followed up with a return to a rising USD and falling EUR etc. I will be looking for clues to this on the indices.
The indices are still bouncing sideways. No new TS signals yet.
Easter Monday 9/4 (4 pm)
The indices are still in much the same spot as before. The USDX is bouncing just under the 80 level. I suspect it might stay like this until some volume kicks in when the US market opens. No new TS signals.
Easter Monday 9/4 (12.30 pm)
We are having a fairly quiet day here today; beach, walks and AFL later as well as the kids over for dinner. I hope you are all getting some peace-time in over this Easter break.
There has been a bit of a gap this morning with the USDX up and the EURX down. The USDX is struggling at the 80 level though. Also, some good data out of China seems to have stalled the 'risk off' sentiment.
There has been a bit of a gap this morning with the USDX up and the EURX down. The USDX is struggling at the 80 level though. Also, some good data out of China seems to have stalled the 'risk off' sentiment.
I don't have any new TS signals just yet. A continuation signal has formed on the E/J, this is just a continuation of a short signal from last week. I'm wary of the Yen pairs at the moment though; as mentioned in my w/e posts.
There has been a triangle break up and out on the USD/SGD. This has stalled though with the release of the good Chinese data.
I'll update again when I see something worth noting.
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