Indices review for Week 16/4/2012

I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 14/4/12. My Indices Review and my Trading Week review.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Trading Week Analysis as well so that you understand what I am looking for in the pairs this week.

USDX

Monthly: Trend up overall.  Still: Chart could still be forming a bull flag pattern as mentioned last week.  Trend line breaks will be watched for.

Weekly:  Trend sideways. Price is still trading within a symmetrical triangle though but, also, does look like it could still be forming a bull flag pattern, as mentioned last week and above. Last week’s candle was a bearish ‘hanging man’ candle though.

Daily:  Sideways to up/Ranging. Price is still bouncing within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Price bounced off the bottom triangle trend line on Friday forming a bullish engulfing pattern.

4hr: Sideways/Up.  Price traded in a narrow range for most of the week from 80-79.50.  It broke down briefly but then rallied to back up near the 80 level. Price is getting closer to the apex of the symmetrical triangle.

Thoughts:  We are STILL at key levels across the broader markets, even though critical support levels have been broken.  The DOW has broken below the 78.6% breakout 13,000 level.  The S&P has also weakened though and is just below its key 1,400 breakout level. This could be the start of the next market down turn after a recent high or, just a pause before the next big up move. I am open to either scenario and will trade what I see.

I will look to LONG the USD in pairs on valid TS signals and if price breaks, closes and holds above the 80 level and, then, above the upper triangle trend line.

 

I will look to SHORT the USD in pairs on valid TS signals and if price breaks below the 79.50, 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot area.

As always, Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices.  These events can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.

EURX

Monthly:  Trend down. Price is still trading within a large descending wedge pattern.  There is an extra, steeper, bear trend line in play as well. The current monthly candle is very bearish.

Weekly:  Trend sideways. Price has bounced off the upper bear trend line. Last week’s candle was an ‘indecision’ Doji.

Daily: Trend sideways/down.  Price is now trading within the smaller of the two descending wedge patterns. Price traded between 104 and 103 all week. The 103 level has held price up all week. Friday’s action was quite bearish after poor Chinese data. 

4 hr: Trend sideways/ ranging.  Price bounced sideways in a narrow range for most of the week.  The 103 level has offered support all week. There is little resistance to its downward path below this level though.

Thoughts:  I will look to SHORT the Eur in pairs on valid TS signals if the EURX breaks, closes and holds below the 103 level.

 

I will look to LONG the Eur in pairs on any new TS signal and if the EURX trends back upwards.  There is a bit of resistance in its upward path though; weekly pivot and 4 hr 200 EMA.