Trading Week Analysis for Week 5/3/12

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 3/3/12; My Indices Review and my Trading Week Analysis.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

There was a shift from the 'risk on' six week old rally to 'risk off' last week. I am not sure whether this new sentiment will hold though so I will be on the lookout for any change in sentiment.  

I am travelling OS early in the week and may not get to post, or trade, much at all this week. I am away from 5/3 - 23/3 and may not post or update much at all during this time.

E/U: I had a signal to short this last Thursday but ignored it due to concerns over the disruption to the usual correlation between currency pairs.  The move has already yielded 150 pips.  I will now wait to see if this 'risk off' sentiment continues and, if it does, I will look to SHORT the E/U on the break, close and hold below the daily trend line.  This may end up correlating with a TS signal on the daily chart.  If the E/U fails to break this trend line and market sentiment turns back to 'risk on' then I will look to go LONG on the E/U on the formation of a new TS LONG signal.

E/J: I won't Short the E/J.  I will look to Long the E/J if market sentiment returns to 'risk on' and there is a break up out of the triangle.

A/U: I won't trade this pair Long as I see other better 'risk on' trades.  I would consider trading Short if I get a TS signal to Short and a trend line break.

A/J: Have I told you how upset I am at getting stopped out of this A/J pair from the 86 level?  Only once or twice?  This trade has now delivered up to around 180 pips!  I will try to get in again if the 'risk on' sentiment continues.

G/U: I don't usually trade the cable.  It is setting up though for a nice triangle break pattern.  It was nearing an upward break late last week but has since re-traced down.  I will keep an eye on this pair and if 'risk on' returns I will take this Long on a break, close and hold out above 1.6 and the triangle pattern.

USD/SGD: This is also setting up for a triangle break pattern.  I will look to Short this pair if 'risk on' returns and I get a valid TS signal along with a trend line break.  Otherwise, I will look for new TS Long signals.

Swissie: I won't trade this pair this week but I do keep an eye on it.  I find that it doesn't move as much as some of the other pairs when momentum does indeed kick in.

U/J: I missed this triangle break out and new TS signal on Friday.  I won't chase this trade.

I'm not even bothering with the Loonie, Silver or Gold for this week.  The first one is crazy and the two metals are still in damage control after last week's big moves.