I still can't seem to sleep in so I'm up blogging and we head off early this morning to Dover anyway.
I've had a quick look at the indices though. I've re-drawn the trend lines for the USDX. It is looking a bit stuck and rather bearish but today's NFP data will no doubt give this a nudge. Currently, price on the USDX is stuck at the 79 area, a previous major support / resistance level and the current area for the 4hr 200 EMA and, also, just above the weekly and monthly pivot levels. Price could move either way from here for sure but, this is a major level from which the next big move should evolve from.
The EURX on the other hand is looking a little bullish and has continued its move up from the bottom trend line and has even closed above the weekly pivot.
Today's US NFP data will hopefully, and most probably, give the momentum to drive the next major sentiment move. The stock markets are up a bit and the VIX, fear gauge, is down. I think another assault on the 13000 on the DOW might be in store as well. Time will tell and I will look on with keen interest. This is all pointing to further 'risk on' but we need more confirmation from the indices.
I haven't slept in! I have been up since 4am and doing the travel blog instead. Jet lag is hitting me harder this time. Must be old age!
Anyway, I've just managed a quick look at the charts. Some optimism returned in yesterday with some positive US data and hopes about the Greek debt saga.
The EURX has bounced up off the bottom triangle trend line. The USDX hit up against the monthly R1 pivot and resistance 80 area and promptly fell back down.
It looks like we could get a return to 'risk on' but that will depend how the markets reads and, more importantly, interprets the data that is coming out this week.
I'm too busy too trade whilst holidaying this time but, glad to be so as, I think things could be messy until all of the news items for this week are cleared.
Wednesday 7/3 (4.30 am London)
I'm up early here as having already had 9 hrs sleep I can't rest any longer. We had a full day yesterday and were exhausted so retired early. I seem to remember when I went away last time that I missed some great market action. Deja vu? The Greek debt worries appear to have further spooked the market and the sentiment has clearly been 'risk off' so far this week.
Whilst the USDX broke up above the 79.5 level the EURX, although breaking below the monthly pivot, it has baulked at dropping below the daily bull trend line.
Some of the pairs I had mentioned on my watch list have delivered a lot of pips therefore too.
The E/U has actually moved 230 pips since the signal I received last week. It has also since broken the trend line and had a move since then of up to 90 pips. I had hesitated on the initial signal last week due to correlation concerns. It seems that in future perhaps I should just trust my signals!
The E/J had a text book style trend line break with a corresponding TS signal as well this week to the tune of 150 pips. I have been reluctant to short any Yen pairs due to potential BoJ intervention. Again, perhaps I;m being just too conservative here guys!
The A/U also has produced some good moves. An initial signal was received to short last week and that produced 230 pips but even waiting for the trend line break with TS gave over 100 pips.
Similarly, the A/J gave a TS short signal and trend line break at the critical 87 to yield up to 200 pips. Being a Yen pair though I have avoided shorting the A/J. Time to reconsider?
The USD/SGD also gave a new TS signal long this week which has delivered 100 pips until hitting the trend line.
What have I discovered this week:
- Perhaps I should be less conservative.
- I should have more faith in my TS signals.
- Shorting Yen pairs might be worth reconsidering. Perhaps do so with tighter stops and smaller profit targets? Something to think about.
- I'm too tired and fogged with jet lag to even think about placing trades at the moment!
Tuesday 6/3 (8am London)
Hi guys. Just arrived in London. it is a 24 hr flight from Sydney. Not doing any trading today BUT..I have noticed that USDX still hasn't broken the 79.5 level and the EURX still hasn't dropped much below the monthly pivot and it hasn't breached the 4hr 200 EMA or out of the triangle. So, I'm kinda glad I've got some sights to see! I don't want to be tempted to trade when the new trend is not fully functional. I'm not convinced it is 'risk on' or 'risk off' at this stage!
Monday 5/3 (1 pm)
The USDX at this early stage is trading in a bit of 'no mans land' so far today. It is still up, and out, of the triangle break but has not broken up above the all important 79.5 level. I said in my weekend Indices Review that I want to see it trading up over 79.5 for 'risk off' and back within the triangle for 'risk on'.
The EURX is trading up and has not broken below the monthly pivot level of 104.2. I said I wanted it to close below this level, and even the bottom trend line of the triangle, for 'risk off' trading or to trend back up for 'risk on' trading. So, at the moment there is no real clear cut clue as to the market sentiment for this week.
In currencies the Aussie pairs are down a bit but the rest are fairly flat. I think it might take until Europe, or even the US, comes online later on before there is much movement.
PS: I had made an error on one of my charts in the new 'Stocks' tab page and I have corrected this now. Guys, I'm only human and I've been struggling to stay that way for most of last year so apologies for any errors but this forum is a most humble production by one person, moi!
Still no data!
Monday 5/3 (10.15 am)
My chart provider/broker is having technical problems this morning and I am unable to get any live data updates for any of my charts. I am not able to make any assessments of FX trades thus far. This might be for the best for me today today though anyway. My husband and I head off for an OS flight in a few hours and I haven't started packing! I spent most of yesterday and last night in at the hospital with some complications but I'm fit to travel now. Having said that I do need to get a move on with my packing.
I will remain very open minded about whatever I see the charts reflect in terms of market sentiment this week. I will trade what I see but I will feel more confident in doing so if the usual currency correlation, absent late last week, is restored. I will not be at all surprised to see the sentiment return to that of 'risk on'. The positive US auto data from late last week is not to be under estimated. This is seen to be a significant boost to their economy. More cars means more confidence, means more outings, means more spending, means more driving holidays, means more spending etc etc. The link to an article on the data is here @ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-01/chrysler-sales-rise-tops-estimates-as-gas-prices-lift-demand-for-200-sedan.html
I will update once I get access to live market data on my charts and when I've finished packing!
Please also note that I have added a new page tab on Stocks and Options for those of you who are interested in these trading instruments.
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