Trading Week Analysis 26/3/2012

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 24/3/12; My Indices Review and my Trading Week Analysis.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

The following pairs interest me this week: E/U, E/J, A/U, A/J, G/U, USD/SGD, Gold and Silver.  Charts and notes for these are below:

E/U: I don’t have a TS LONG signal on the 4 hr chart yet but price action looks bullish. Price is trading within a symmetrical triangle.

I will look to LONG the E/U if 'risk on' continues and on a full TS signal and if price breaks and holds above the monthly pivot and upper trend line.

I will look to SHORT the E/U if 'risk off' returns and on a new TS signal and if price breaks, closes and holds below the 4hr 200 EMA and also, later, the bottom triangle trend line.

E/J: This pair has yielded many hundreds of pips lately.  I have re-drawn the trend lines on this pair now though and I just have a bottom bull trend line shown. 

I will look to LONG the E/J if 'risk on' continues and on a new TS signal and if price is supported by the bottom bull trend line.

I will not SHORT this pair.

A/U: I will look to LONG the A/U if 'risk on' continues and on a full TS signal and if price breaks and holds above the weekly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA and monthly S1 level.

I will only look to SHORT the A/U if 'risk off' returns and on a new TS signal and if price breaks, closes and holds below the daily bottom triangle trend line near the monthly S3.

A/J: This pair pulled back last week but only to re-test the initial breakout trend line, as can be seen on the monthly chart.  It is not at all surprising to see price re-test a break out level, or trend line, especially after such a significant break to the upside.

I will look to LONG this pair if 'risk on' continues and on a new TS signal and if price breaks closes and holds above the 87 level. 

I will not SHORT this pair. 

G/U: I am looking to LONG the G/U if 'risk on' continues.  I will look for a TS signal and a break close and hold above the trend line and 1.6 level.

USD/SGD:

I will look to LONG this pair if 'risk off' returns and if I get a new TS signal and a break, close and hold above the upper trend line.

I will look to SHORT this pair if 'risk on' continues and I get a new TS signal plus a break, close and hold below the 4 hr and daily 200 EMA and the weekly pivot level at the 1.26 area.

The Swissie: USD/CHF: I won't SHORT this pair due to concerns about Swiss bank intervention BUT this pair seems to be making very bearish moves with a triangle break out evident on the daily chart.  Price though is currently supported just below this breakout level by the daily 200 EMA. I am just mentioning this out of interest.

GOLD and SILVER: I am keeping an eye on the metals.  I am looking out for bearish moves if we do see the USD continue to fall and a continued 'risk on' sentiment.  Conversely, if we see a return to 'risk off' I will look for further up moves and triangle break outs with new TS signals.