Monday, January 27, 2014

Trading Week 27/01/14

Sat 1st Feb (6.15 am)
S&P500: it's been a choppy ride here so far and 1.5  hrs to go still:

The daily chart isn't very clear here still just yet:

TS signals:
AUD/NZD: 130 pips
E/U: 100 pips:

EUR/AUD: is currently flat but would have been stopped out for -100. BTW: I had warned against this until it closed below the monthly 200 EMA. It has yet to do so.

E/J: There was a TS 'short' signal here last week that faded. The better trade option here though would have been a purely technical one to simply short from the break of the H&S neck line! This move has now yielded 280 pips. The pull back was only 70 pips. BTW: the trading channel may now also be broken:

Fri 31st Jan (7.50 pm)
TS signals: 

E/U: chopping along support.  Red flag EUR data at 9 pm might shift things here:

EUR/AUD: now, what was I saying about the monthly 200 EMA?

AUD/NZD: the 1.075 S/R level may not hold:
Cable: still triangle trading:

Nikkei: this closed for the month just below the 15,000 BUT....below is below!

Fri 31st Jan (2.10 pm)
E/U: This pair is still chopping around near the daily support trend line:

It is trading below the 4hr and daily Ichimoku Cloud now though too:
E/U 4hr Cloud:
E/U daily Cloud:

Dean Malone, from Compass FX, has just put out a video on this pair.

Fri 31st Jan (12.25 pm)
Cable: still chopping under the monthly 200 EMA but above the monthly trend line. I've drawn in new trend lines:

Fri 31st Jan (10.40 am)
AUD/NZD: is testing support at the 1.075 level.

E/U: I clearly have my trend line a tad high!

EUR/AUD: the monthly 200 EMA supporting price here:

I want to see how Asia trades today. Apart from that, it looks like most instruments are in 'watching for Sue' mode. That is, doing little.

Fri 31st Jan (6.20 am)
E/J: looking back, on the daily chart, this would have been a better trade to take from just the technical H&S move. Once price broke down through the 61.8% fib, it only retraced about 70 pips back above this level. It has now move 150 pips below this support:

Fri 31st Jan (5.45 am)
Today is the last day of the trading month and there may be some unusual movement. Also watch out for where key pairs and indices close for the month. I most interested to see where the Nikkei closes for the month and I'll be checking on that 15,000 level!

Indices: the USDX has rallied and the EURX has suffered as a result and fallen below major support:

S&P500:  US data was weak but some positive earnings reports have helped to lift stocks. I'm still on the lookout for a possible H&S on the daily though:

Gold: is struggling with the higher USD and has fallen back to test the previously broken trend line. A fall back below this would be rather bearish.

Ichimoku Alignment: I do note that we have Ichimoku alignment across the indices that favours long USD and short EUR or, what has previously presented as, 'risk off'. That is, the EURX is trading below the Cloud on the daily and 4hr charts and the USDX is above on the daily and 4 hr charts. I'll be watching to see if this alignment holds and develops. I'm not seeing this sentiment translated across a range of instruments just yet though. Stocks and the Aussie are trading higher today and bucking this alignment.

Open TS signal:
AUD/NZD: job done for the week as this has delivered 100 pips. This was the first new TS signal for this week:

New TS signals: the rally with the USD has tipped the EUR lower and triggered two signals overnight.

E/U: this triggered on my 1 am candle BUT is finding some support at the daily trend line. I'd rather see a close below this level:

This would have made a nicer 30 min trade for thos who trade the London /US session:

EUR/AUD: also triggered off my 1 am candle BUT wary of the major support from the monthly 200 EMA just below:

E/J: no new TS signal here but I do note that this has fallen 150 pips below the key 61.8% fib that I wax on about!

A/U: trying to break up and out of the trading channel:

Cable: broke down from the shorter term triangle BUT no new signal:

U/J: still hanging near the S/R of the monthly 200 EMA:

Thurs 30th Jan (5.10 pm)
AUD/NZD: this pair did give a new TS signal off my 5 pm candle close. There has been a trend line break of sorts too:

EURX: this is still hanging in just above a major intersection of support.  A breach here though could tip markets into a bout of 'risk off':
4 hr:

daily: I'm starting to worry about myself a bit as I do seem to be seeing a lot of possible H&S patterns of late. Is it me....or the markets though!?

Thurs 30th Jan (4.05 pm)
AUD/NZD: The key S/R level of 1.075 is about 80 pips above current price. This might give this pair some grief if it continues with this bullish break. As will the 61.8% fib just before this:

Thurs 30th Jan (3.55 pm)
Stocks: Given there isn't much too happening.... just yet at least.....I have updated my Stocks: Jan page.

I do see the Nikkei struggling to try and get back up over the 15,000 level!

Thurs 30th Jan (3 pm)
AUD/NZD: this is breaking the neck line of the 4hr H&S pattern and looks set to form a new TS signal on my 5 pm candle. I'm at school pick up then.

Not much else happening.

Thurs 30th Jan (10.20 am)
Not seeing much happening anywhere really:
E/U: still chopping sideways:

A/U: have adjusted the trading channel:

Cable: another Bull Flag forming?

U/J: choppy around the monthly 200 EMA:

E/J: chopping around too, albeit with a downward bias:

Thurs 30th Jan (10 am)
S&P500: the 1770 level looks to be forming some support here:

Thurs 30th Jan (8.15 am)
AUD/NZD: the bullish descending wedge didn't really fire up but there could also now be a bullish inverse H&S (of sorts) setting up here:

Thurs 30th Jan (6.25 am)
Gold: interesting, no rout with Gold post FOMC! Price is holding above the neck line $1,255 level for now:

S&P500: buyers seem to be jumping in on the S&P500:

AA: Alcoa is up 2% @ 26 cents! Go figure!

Thurs 30th Jan (6.15 am)
Indices: I'm not seeing the big moves here that I was expecting. The USDX is up a bit and the EURX is trying to hold above an intersection of major support;the monthly 200 EMA and the major trend line:

I'm seeing a bit of risk off movement BUT I'll wait until the dust settles a bit. I'm wondering if the 'good news' aspect of the taper might start to filter in. The S&P500 isn't liking the news:

Wed 29th Jan (9 pm)
No new TS surprises there! Will be back after FOMC.

Wed 29th Jan (8.25 pm)
FOMC: I am not alone in suggesting to wait until after FOMC to determine any new trades or trend direction.

Wed 29th Jan (6.15 pm)
S&P500: I'm keeping an eye on the 1,815 level. A respect of this level could see a H&S start to form up:

Wed 29th Jan (4.10 pm)
E/U: The E/U is only about 300 + pips away from a major triangle trend line on the monthly chart. This won't be smooth sailing unless, of course, it's headed south!

E/U monthly:

The monthly chart sort of has a 'Bull Flag' look to it as well!

E/U weekly:

E/U daily:

E/U 4hr:

Wed 29th Jan (1.30 pm)
E/J: I had been on the lookout for bearish follow through on the E/J H&S pattern but this hasn't evolved. It is now looking like it could be setting up as a 'Bull Flag'! The Nikkei is up today and S&P500 is ticking upwards too. The U/J might follow and could possibly drag the E/J with it. The 'elephant in the room' remains as FOMC though:

Wed 29th Jan (1.15 pm)
Not much happening but President Obama is giving his State of the Union address.

Aussie: I do note there has been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the 4hr Cloud chart BUT this is deemed a 'weak' signal as it evolved below the Cloud:
A/U 4hr Cloud:

A/U daily Cloud:

Wed 29th Jan (7 am)
Indices: both chopping sideways ahead of FOMC:
USDX: check out those Bollinger bands!

EURX: still hovering above the major support trend line and the monthly 200 EMA ....for now: 

S&P500: choppy

Gold: slipping below the key $1,255: 

E/U: choppy:

E/J: hanging out near the safety of the 61.8% fib: 


Cable: choppy under the monthly 200 EMA: 

U/J: hanging out at the monthly 200 EMA:

I don't have any new trend signals and would not be expecting any until after FOMC anyway.
Tue 28th Jan (5 pm)
A/U: The 5 pm candle didn't trigger a new TS signal but there has been a wedge breakout:

E/J: this closed off for -50 but is still below the 61.8% fib:

I do note the Nikkei has slipped back but is still above the 15.000 at the moment.

Tue 28th Jan (3.40 pm)
Last day of school holidays today! Yeah!  Big time yeah!

S&P500: Asian markets have bounced a bit today and the S&P500 is up in Futures trade. I mentioned this morning how the daily support trend line has held since Nov 2012 and the condensed chart posted below shows this more clearly:

Trading during the US session might offer short term trades on the S&P500 but I would want to see a break and hold below the trend line before being confident of any longer term short play here.

Indices: The EURX is stuck in the daily Cloud and the USDX is very close to it's Cloud. There is no clear and unencumbered trend evident on either of these charts:

E/J: signal looks set to close but price is still below the key 61.8% fib for now:

A/U: looks like it will form a new TS signal off the 5pm candle and is also making for a bullish wedge break. I'll check again at 5pm:

Cable: looks like it's getting ready for good news on the GDP data front; due out later tonight. Watch the monthly 200 EMA with any positive print!

Tue 28th Jan (12.30 pm)
S&P500: A TS 'sell' signal formed after the close of the 27th Jan daily candle. The daily support trend line is just below price though and has supported price action since Nov 2012. I'm expecting a gap lower tomorrow considering the decline with Apple after markets closed:

Tue 28th Jan (9.45 am)
S&P500: I'll update this chart info later as my charts have an error here at the moment. It does look like a TS 'short' signal has formed on the daily though.

S&P500 Ichimoku: A bearish Tenkan/ Kijun cross seems to be forming and price is in the Ichimoku daily Cloud. All rather bearish at the moment:

E/J: this closed below the 61.8% fib on the daily chart:

Cable: choppy and no TS signal:

Gold daily: closed above the key $1,255 BUT I suspect it's fate rests with the USD and FOMC. 

Tue 28th Jan (7 am)
Indices: the USDX ticked a bit higher and the EURX a bit lower:

S&P500: choppy:

Closed TS signals: the following signals closed off overnight:

E/U: flat
A/J: after giving 300:

EUR/AUD: after giving 330 pips. This may only be back testing the previously broken and major 1.56 level though before further continuation! 

Other TS signals:
E/J: still open for now and it is still below the 61.8% fib for the time being:

U/Jstill open for now and it is still below the monthly 200 EMA for the time being:

Other pairs:
A/U: A bullish descending wedge looks to be forming but who would take a long here knowing the RBA sentiment?

Cable: chopping still between the monthly 200 EMA and the triangle trend line. No new TS signal: 

AUD/NZD: no new TS signal here but it has made a wedge break of sorts: 

Gold: testing the broken trend line BUT I'd avoid before FOMC anyway:

Monday 27th Jan (6 pm)
Asian markets traded lower today due to emerging markets and China credit concern. I do note the Nikkei closed just above the 15,000 though.

Closed TS signals:
AUD/NZD: this has now closed for a loss of 40. This pair might be setting up in a bullish wedge formation but, really, I think it's anyone's guess about how the broader markets will move until after FOMC:

GBP/AUD: this has closed too after moving 350 pips:

Open TS signals:

E/U: flat:

E/J: down but might be just testing the broken 61.8% fib level. A close back above this level would suggest a reversal though: 


U/J: testing the monthly 200 EMA: 


Gold: might be getting nervous ahead of FOMC: 

The E/J trade interests me most. I'm watching the 61.8% fib level. I am wary with this week's FOMC though. 

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