Monday, January 6, 2014

Trading Week 06/01/14

Sat 11th Jan (7.40 am)
EUR/AUD: NFP sure knocked this one on the head!

AUD/NZD: the weaker USD has boosted the AUD more than the Kiwi, triggering a new TS signal on my 1 am candle: 

GBP/AUD: after looking bullish for some time there seems likely to be a break of the daily support trend line and it also looks like a possible bearish H&S might be setting up on the daily chart here. I don't have a TS signal on the 4 hr chart yet though:

AUD/USD: a new TS signal is trying to form here but a close above the 0.90 would be more inspiring. Who wants to bet against the RBA though?

Fri 10th Jan (10 pm)
GBP/AUD: forgot to post earlier. This signal has now closed:

EUR/AUD: not looking too good either:

Fri 10th Jan (9 pm)
No new TS signals.

Fri 10th Jan (8.50 pm)
E/U: I'll be checking on this after NFP. A break of the daily trend line might be a good trade down to the lower trend line; some 500 + pips away! Otherwise, looking for a move back up to test the bear triangle trend line:
4 hr:

Fri 10th Jan (5.15 pm)
AUD/NZD: trading higher but no new TS signal just yet:

No other new TS signals yet.

Fri 10th Jan (1 pm)
Chinese trade balance data was weaker than expected.

A/N: no new TS signal here yet:

A/U: not too upset, just yet, by Chinese data. Imports were higher which probably is helping here: 

Fri 10th Jan (12 noon)
It is fairly quiet as the markets wait for some Chinese Trade Balance data.

Fri 10th Jan (6.40 am)
Indices: the USDX is holding up whilst the EURX is coming under some pressure:

USDX Daily Ichimoku Cloud:  the bearish cross has faded now as the Tenkan/Kijun lines have fused. The point to note though is that price action is back above the Cloud and has held there for the entire week. This is the most bullish performance here for the USDX since last July.  

S&P500: choppy all week as it tries to carve out its 2014 identity:

TS Signals: 
A/N has closed now as the 1.075 support seems to kick in. I'll be watching to see if this carves out a double bottom or is just a pause before further falls: 

U/J: faded for a loss of 20:

GBP/AUD: off its high but still going: 

EUR/AUD: was choppy as expected given ECB news and the TS signal is down but has not closed off: 

Other pairs:
E/U: choppy with ECB news BUT still holding above the daily trend line for the time being:

A/U: not straying too far from the 0.89 just yet:
Cable: still holding up:
Kiwi: choppy:

It has been a choppy week with all the news and I expect more of the same as we close out with USD NFP.

Thurs 9th Jan (9.40 pm)
Cable: Dean Malone has posted a video with his thoughts for the Cable. He has fibbed similarly to me.

Thurs 9th Jan (9 pm)
AUD/NZD: this has broken through support:

Thurs 9th Jan (5 pm)
EUR/AUD: has given a new TS signal. Caution is needed here though as there is major ECB news later today. It might be best to wait until after the ECB press conference:

AUD/NZD: this pair is testing the lows from last year now as it tries to hold above the 1.075 level. :
A/N 4hr

A/N monthly: I do suspect that if the 1.075 level breaks then it will be heading to the 2005 lows down near 1.04: 

GBP/AUD: keeping on going!

Thurs 9th Jan (1.45 pm)
Open TS signals: 
GBP/AUD: has now given up to 140 pips:

AUD/NZD: still at around 60 pips: 
U/J: choppy ahead of NFP
E/U: chopping above the daily support trend line:

A/U: has slipped back below the 0.89:

EUR/AUD: I'm watching for any new signal here after ECB and for any close above the monthly 200 EMA: 

Thurs 9th Jan (8.10 am)
Gold: I posted over the weekend about how Gold had broken up through a daily chart bear trend line. Price has tested this trend line so far but has not really moved on. I'm not surprised by this pause given the recent bout of USD strength. What does surprise me though is the start of a possible bullish 'inverted Head and Shoulder' pattern developing!

I'm not sure if/how Gold can continue to hold above this trend line, and the $1200 level, if USD strength continues.

Thurs 9th Jan (8 am)
EUR/USD: Correction to trend line
I have found at the start of each week as my MT4 charts update that the trend lines often shift. I usually spend some time each week re-calibrating these. I just went out to my E/U daily chart and noted the daily trend lines was not in correct position. I have adjusted the daily trend line to reflect the previous support I had noted. This now shows that support has not been breached on the 4hr chart. 
E/U daily:

E/U 4hr: So, support has not been breached just yet and I don't have any new TS signal. There is EUR interest rate news tonight that may feed movement here though: 

Thurs 9th Jan (6.30 am)
Indices: positive US data has reinforced taper thoughts and this has boosted the USD. The EURX has slipped in its wake:
Open TS signals:
U/J: signal open but choppy:
A/N: has now crept to 60 pips:
G/A: to 80 pips

E/J: This didn't ever give the second candle close above 143 that I required and the signal closed off for a loss of 100: 
A/J: didn't ever break the trend line but has closed too for a loss of 50:

E/U: has broken the daily trend line BUT, strangely, no new TS signal. I suspect the lack of momentum is due to the looming ECB news:

A/U: some AUD data out later but USD strength isn't helping the Aussie: 

Cable: GBP interest rate news later today here but is trading higher. I do note that the Cable has bounced 120 pips off the major triangle trend line! 
Kiwi: choppy
E/A: ditto:

Wed 8th Jan (5.20 pm)
E/J: this has given a new TS signal BUT price is hitting the Bollinger band, monthly and weekly pivots and the 143 whole number barrier. I'd prefer to WAIT and see if price can close again above the 143 level before taking this new signal:

A/J: a new signal here too but price hampered by the weekly pivot and trend line just above. cautious here too. 

Wed 8th Jan (4 pm)
E/J and A/J signals building now too. A bit of 'risk on' seems to be brewing. I'll need the 5 pm candle close to confirm:

Wed 8th Jan (2.55 pm)
U/J: I did get a new TS signal on my 1 pm candle:

Nothing else just yet though.

I am wary of ANY trend based signal ahead of the news this week (GBP and EUR interest rates, FOMC minutes and NFP).

Wed 8th Jan (11.25 am)
U/J: this is looking like it may be setting up for a new TS signal but I need my 1 pm candle to close first. I have to go out for a few hours though and will update when I get back.

E/U: this is under pressure a bit now with some USD strength coming through but I'd be wary ahead of ECB:

A/U: this is a bit weaker too:

Wed 8th Jan (10.25 am)
U/J: this has broken out of the 'flag' pattern but I don't have a new TS signal just yet.

Wed 8th Jan (8 am)
S&P500: This gave another great intra-day trading opportunity last night. The 30 min chart shows a clean trend during the US session. A complete 'no-brainer' trade after the better than expected USD trade balance data!

S&P500 30 min chart:

S&P500 daily MT4 chart:  looks like a possible 'Bull Flag' might be setting up!

S&P500 Ichimoku Chart:  the bullish signal is still valid and price is above the Cloud:

Wed 8th Jan (6.50 am)
Cable and E/U: 
We have a fairly iconic movie here in Australia called 'The Castle'. One of our favorite quotes from this gem is 'How's the serenity'? Well, in a similar vein, I'd like to ask the Cable and E/U...'How's the liquidity?'

Check those Bollinger bands!

Wed 8th Jan (5.40 am)
Indices: not much happening. The markets are clearly waiting for guidance from the GBP, EUR interest rate decisions, FOMC minutes and NFP.
USDX: flat
EURX: ditto

AUD/NZD: this TS signal has crept along to 50 pips: 

GBP/AUD: did end up giving a new TS signal off the 1 am candle BUT it isn't too inspiring. 

Totally unrelated a house with some maths always happening.....this made me laugh this morning....

Tue 7th Jan (9 pm)
No new TS signals BUT...the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD are trying to form signals. It might take the 1 am candle to form these up though:

GBP/AUD: check that support trend line! I'm clearly not the only person with this one drawn in!

The only open TS signal is the AUD/NZD and, after looking a bit sick, it is now up 40 pips:

Tue 7th Jan (6.50 pm)
E/J: signal now closed:
Kiwi: signal now closed:

AUD/NZD: TS signal still going; the only open TS signal for now

U/J: not much happening...must be waiting to see how Fed minutes and NFP goes!

E/U: looking heavy as it tries to hold above daily support but no new signal yet. Interest rates and ECB still to come here this week::

A/U and A/J: choppy:

Cable: Interest rates still to come here too this week. Trying to hold above the major triangle trend line: 

Stocks and AAPL: I'm watching the daily support trend line here for some guidance:

Tue 7th Jan (12.40 pm)
Nikkei: there is a bit of chatter about the pull back on the Nikkei. Yep...I see it but would expect nothing less. This index broke through a MAJOR trend line and some significant psychological barriers to close out last year. I would be expecting the Nikkei to at least be choppy, perhaps test the 15,000, and even the broken trend line, before any possible bullish continuation! This index is navigating a possible major point of inflection and such moves are often gradual and choppy!

Tue 7th Jan (11.40 am)
U/J: This looks like it might be setting up in another 'Bull Flag' type of pattern; one of many as the 4hr chart shows. This pair will probably be dictated by the Nikkei, FOMC and NFP this week but I'm still watching the technical patterns anyway!

Tue 7th Jan (10.10 am)
Not much happening. It might take until FOMC minutes and/or NFP before the USD makes up its mind where its going.

Tue 7th Jan (6 am)
The USDX needs a bit of Eliza Doolittle and 'Dover...move your bloomin' arse'!
USDX: I have been discussing in my w/e write ups how I would like to see the USDX make a clean break away form the weekly 200 EMA, up or down, so that a new trend can emerge. It ain't happened yet!

EURX: ticking up with USD weakness:
TS signals:
E/U: TS signal has closed as the suspected bounce off the daily support trend line evolved!

E/J: still open but not going too far. U/J holding it back:

Kiwi: up 30 pips now:

AUD/NZD: TS signal open but flat: 

Cable: Well, we got the bounce of the major triangle trend line! No TS signal yet though!

U/J: I do think it will visit the monthly 200 EMA here before deciding its next move: 

Aussie: still chopping above the key 0.89 but under the 0.90:

A/J: chopping under the daily chart trading channel trend line: 

We have an annual event horse race here called the Melbourne Cup. It is a 3200 m (2 mile) event and for the first mile or so there is much chaos as riders 'jockey' for positions. The action doesn't really start until the horses hit the final straight and the last 450 m. I feel that these markets are out of the gates for sure with the New Year but well inside the first mile and that there is still much 'jockeying' for positions to be done yet before we see a clear trend. Pardon the horse analogy but I always wanted to be National Velvet!

Monday 6th Jan 2014 (8.15 pm)
Indices:the USD is down a bit and the EURX is up a bit. There has been some talk about mixed views on starting to taper. I'm wondering if a 'taper' had been priced in BUT this new news is now putting some pressure on the USD? Maybe the US session will shed some light here!


TS signals:
E/U: has given 70. That daily trend line might kick in with support so I'd be wary here, especially if the USD starts to slip further!

E/J: has now given 170 pips! Ditto as for above though. I had thought it might pull back, at a minimum, to test the major break of the 61.8% fib BUT...maybe it won't get that far!

Kiwi: TS signal not looking too good! 

AUD/NZD: ditto 

Other pairs: no new TS signals yet on any of these yet.

A/U: choppy and check the complete lack of momentum with the ADX!
A/J: ditto:

Cable: I had thought this might pull back to test the break of the major triangle trend line! That is where price has bounced so far. Poor PMI data just now has put pressure on here though:

U/J: choppy still under the 61.8% fib:
EUR/AUD: choppy

GBP/AUD: holding above the trend line. No momentum.

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