Monday, January 13, 2014

Trading Week 13/01/14

Sat 18th Jan (6.20 am)
Indices: The USDX has kicked off and the EURX has fallen back below the key support of the monthly 200 EMA:

S&P500: still hovering at the 'double top':

Gold and Silver have ticked up again overnight:

TS Signals that have closed off:
EUR/AUD after giving 240 pips:

AUD/NZD after giving 170 pips:

Open TS signals:
A/U: has given 200 pips:

GBP/AUD: has given 380 pips:

New TS signals:
E/U: off my 5 am candle just before AND has broken a major support trend line: 

Kiwi: off my 11 pm candle but hasn't moved too far just yet:

Fri 17th Jan (8.45 pm)
Cable: strong retail sales has boosted the Cable:

GBP/AUD: this signal is firing:

E/U: is struggling to hold above major support:

A/U: struggling too. Has slipped below the 0.88:

Stocks: I've posted a few more interesting charts.

Fri 17th Jan (3.30 pm)
U/J: a bullish 'inverse H&S' building here?

Fri 17th Jan (1.50 pm)
Aussie: a video by Dean Malone on the Aussie

Not a whole lot happening. There is some Cable weakness but there is key GBP data tonight:

Fri 17th Jan (9 am)
A/U: I would not be surprised to see this pull back to test the 0.89 level before any possible further falls:

Fri 17th Jan (7 am)
E/J: another H&S building here too on the daily? The 'neck line' of any possible such pattern would be the major 61.8% fib level. This is the 61.8 fib pull back level of the 2008- 2012 bear move and, thus, is a significant level for the E/J. Worth watching...that's all I'm suggesting!

E/J daily: 

E/J monthly

Fri 17th Jan (6.45 am)
Indices: have moved very little and I suspect the 'double top' on the US major stock index, the S&P500, may have been a contributing factor:

TS Signals:
Some have closed off:
E/J: after just 60 pips:
 U/J:after just 70 pips:

E/U: closed off for -20. I had said I would not take this signal unless there was a close below the trend line and that has not evolved :

The AUD based signals are still moving, no surprises there:
A/N: 170:
E/A: 240:

A/J plunged yesterday too but the candle move was too big for a good TS signal:
Kiwi: choppy:

Cable: still holding above support...for now:

Silver: still holding above the key $20:

Gold: I'm still seeing a possible inverse H&S building here:

Thurs 16th Jan (6 pm)
TS signals: there are numerous signals and they are all ticking along except for the E/U.

E/U: This is choppy as it trades along the major weekly support trend line. I had stated that I would not take this signal unless it closed below the major trend line:

Cable: this is still hovering above the support of the major triangle trend line from the monthly chart and I don't have any TS signal here at all, long or short! 

I have adjusted the 4hr triangle trend lines to reflect latest S/R:

Thurs 16th Jan (3.15 pm)
S&P500: I'll be watching for a break or respect of this 'double top' region:

I have bought Cov Call on BAC and sold Puts on AA today though. Waiting for earnings to pass on INTC, MSFT and GE to trade these as well.

Also, getting ready to jump on AMD if it closes back above the $4.50:

Thurs 16th Jan (11.50 am)
AUD data: this has really got the TS signals moving!
A/U: has now moved 150 pips:

The A/U weekly chart 'H&S' may be starting!

EUR/AUD: now moved 170 pips:

GBP/AUD: now on for 200 pips:

AUD/NZD: has given 140 pips and the 2005 lows would seem to be the next stop.

Thurs 16th Jan (9.30 am)
AUD employment data: is due out in 2 hrs and this may trigger moves in the A/U away from the safety of the 0.89 level. A positive print here may trigger a bounce but a negative result may start the move below 0.89:

AUD/NZD: still below the support of 1.075. The data might shift this pair too:

Thurs 16th Jan (6.45 am)
Indices: The USDX looks like its getting its mojo back. It has moved up out of the Cloud and is starting to look bullish again:

EURX: flat

S&P500: still moving along. The 30 min charts, again, gave a good trading opportunity. The daily chart shows the index to be testing the possible 'double top' region. A clean break and hold above this would obviously void this pattern and be a bullish signal. Respect, though, could trigger a pause or even pull back:

TS signals: have done little since the last update and some have reversed:
GBP/AUD: gave 100 then fell back:
AUD/NZD: not going too far:
EUR/AUD:  also gave 70 then fell:

U/J: the only one to lift a bit. Up 40: 
A/U: didn't move on:
E/J: still flat:

E/U back down near daily trend line support. This bearish move overnight gave a new TS signal off my 1 am candle. I'd only short this though on a clear break and hold below the trend line support.

Cable: this is testing the recent 4hr triangle support AND that of the major monthly triangle trend line:

PS: My charts will look a bit different as I have rolled over to a new lap top, hence new platform configurations etc. This has not been a fun exercise!

Wed 15th Jan (9.30 pm)
Open TS signals: most are positive:
GBP/AUD: gave 100:
AUD/NZD: gave 80:
EUR/AUD: gave 70:
U/J: flat:
A/U: 80
E/J: down for now:

Wed 15th Jan (5.45 pm)
No new signals. There is some US data tonight.

Wed 15th Jan (2.45 pm)
USDX: is seeing some bullish action:

E/U: this has eventually closed for a loss of 50 pips. It clearly would have been better to get out earlier given all the choppiness:

GBP/AUD: this has now given a new long signal off my 1 pm candle:

Asian markets are mostly higher.

Wed 15th Jan (10.25 am)
Gold: An informative video about Gold from Dean Malone that is well worth watching. I'm on the same page as him.

Wed 15th Jan (10 am)
Swimming is more appealing than these markets at the moment!
I've said it before and I'll keep saying it: These markets will be choppy whilst:
  • The USDX is stuck in or near the daily Ichimoku Cloud and
  • whilst many trading instruments struggle to carve out a new trading path for the year.

New TS signals after my 9 am candle: 
Closed TS signal:
Kiwi: after giving 100 pips.


Cable: This pommy might be swimming on Bondi Beach with the rest of the population! Not much happening here. Retail Sales data, due later in the week, might get this swimming though!

GBP/AUD: no new signal here. Price is struggling at the combined weekly/monthly pivots:

Wed 15th Jan (8 am)
Cable: The Cable has been very choppy recently. I am not surprised. This pair is contemplating a major move; a continued bullish move and break above the monthly 200 EMA or respect of resistance and to track back down. Thus, we've seen it chop around between two key levels; between the support of the monthly chart triangle trend line and the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA. It may continue to chop around for a bit longer as it navigates this period of decision making:

Cable 4hr:
Cable monthly:

Wed 15th Jan (7.30 am)
A bit later today as I got my beach walk in early before the heat set in.
Indices: the USDX is still chopping sideways and stuck in the daily Cloud. The EURX is lifting though:
USDX Ichimoku Cloud:

S&P500:  I had mentioned yesterday how these periods, when the USDX is stuck in the Cloud, are often better for trading off 30 min charts during the US session. Well, again, last night was no different. Check out the clean trend on the S&P500:
Open TS signals:
E/U: positive now at least but has moved very little 

Kiwi: gave 100 before pulling back a bit: 

AUD/NZD: gave 60 pips and looks set to close below key support: 

Closed TS signals: Silver and Gold: both of these signals have closed off and their next move will probably depend on the USD. The USD index hasn't moved too far just yet and is still chopping around just above the weekly 200 EMA. A clear hold here would be bearish for the metals but any break of this support would help them move higher:

Silver: touched the daily chart bear trend line but has pulled back.

Gold:  Couldn't get over the S/R level of $1,255.

New TS signals:
I have two new signals off my 5 am candle:

Other pairs:
A/J: I haven't posted about this pair this week and this is why:

G/U: Mixed GBP data has made this seem confused as to which way to head:

U/J: that may be it for the pull back! A pull back to test the monthly 200 EMA was always on the cards but I had thought it might pull back even further; to test the top of the monthly Cloud: 

Tuesday 14 th Jan (9 pm)
USDX: has been choppy tonight but is still holding above the weekly 200 EMA support for now:

TS signals: some of these have closed off in choppy trade:
GBP/AUD: may only get back much further than the neck line though:

U/J: the monthly 200 EMA is helping here: 

A/U: may get support at the 0.90:

EUR/AUD: closed off after 100 pips:

Gold: looks like it might close off:

Other TS signals: E/U, Kiwi and Silver still ok for time being.

New TS signal: AUD/NZD:  I'd be happier to see a daily candle close the key 1.075 S/R level though:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (8.30 pm)
E/J: I have been discussing in my w/e write ups about the importance of the 61.8% fib for the E/J. price has pulled back to test this level this week, to the pip, and subsequently put in a bounce:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (6 pm)
U/J: no surprises with the pull back so far but will it go on to test the top of the Ichimoku Cloud?:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (5.40 pm)
IMHO: There isn't going to be any real momentum trend developing until the USDX gets away from the weekly 200 EMA and out of the daily Ichimoku Cloud:

Previous situations, like this, have shown trends to be more reliable from trading 30 min charts during the US session. I'll be keen to see if this evolves again tonight. This was the case last night with the S&P500:

TS signals: these are all still open for now but have stalled. I'd have stops to entry.

Gold and Silver: these are both looking a bit bullish:
Silver: may head to test a daily triangle trend line:

Gold: is pushing up under the key resistance level of $1,255. A break and hold above this would be bullish and suggest it might try to push back up to $1,300. The bullish 'inverse H&S' is still forming up:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (1 pm)
USDX: the weekly 200 EMA continues to offer support here and we are seeing a bounce with the USDX:

I had warned that this might evolve and this is putting pressure on some of the current TS signals.This choppiness is not unexpected given the USDX is still stuck in the daily Ichimoku Cloud. That should be always taken as a warning!

Tuesday 14 th Jan (12.40 pm)
S&P500: this index traded lower today but I don't have a sell signal just yet. I still plenty of room for a pull back before any major trend lines are broken. I am keeping an eye on the 'double top' though:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (9.30 am)
USDX: H&S setting up on the 4hr chart:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (9 am)
AUD/NZD: I forgot this one earlier. It has closed off now after yielding very little:

Cable: My TS system is nearly as good for the signals it does not give!  I was surprised yesterday to see that the cable did not trigger a 'buy' signal when I was getting such signals on the E/U, A/U and Kiwi. The system clearly is wiser than me as there was no momentum for any longs here. Price has again pulled back to the safety of the major monthly triangle trend line:

Tuesday 14 th Jan (7 am)
Indices: The USDX is back down at the weekly 200 EMA and trying to stop itself from falling over this key S/R cliff. It is also still stuck in the daily Cloud. The EURX is trodding along as if nothing is happening though:


TS signals: I had been a bit concerned about some of these given the USDX was mired in the resistance of the Ichimoku Cloud. All signals are positive or flat though. I would be locking in profit or moving stops to entry ASAP in case the USDX bounces!

GBP/AUD: the star performer signal has moved 240 pips. This looks set to break the neck line of the daily chart's H&S pattern. The height of this Head from the neck line is around 450~ 500 pips so that would be the predicted target for any follow through bearish move. Most interesting is that such a move would bring this pair back down to near the major S/R level of 1.75! How's that for confluence!:
G/A 4hr
G/A daily:
E/U: flat

A/U: gave 60 and probably waiting to see what Gold will do next: 

Kiwi: also gave 60 and holding out from the break of the daily trading channel: 

U/J: gave 60 as well. This has now broken down through the monthly 200 EMA. I had been suggesting that a pull back to the top of the monthly Cloud, whilst reasonable, might be too much of a pull back. Well, maybe not so. 

EUR/AUD: this move has yielded 100 pips:

 Silver: just 40 but now heading for a triangle trend line test:

Gold: this has given 100 pips and is still knocking on the 'neck line of the bullish inverse H&S pattern. Watch the USDX for clues here. A break of the weekly 200 EMA on the USDX will most likely see this push up through this $1,255 S/R level.

Be careful with Gold! This could just be a pull back to test the break of the monthly Cloud before more bearish follow through. Or, it may also be one big pause before the next rally and, hence, the 'Bull Flag' look setting up on the monthly chart! Watch trend lines for clues:

MGM: I sold my Jan Calls here this morning. Had been holding a few months.
Bought @ $1.38. Sold @ $5.66. ROIC= 310%
(no commission included)

Monday 13th Jan (6.45 pm)
USDX: this is getting some support from the weekly 200 EMA. A hold above this key support level would undermine some of the current TS signals so caution is needed.

Monday 13th Jan (5.30 pm)
Gold: a break above the $1,255 (the Inverse H&S 'neck line') would be a rather bullish signal and suggest a move maybe back up to $1,300:

Any such bullish move might drag the Aussie along with it too.

Monday 13th Jan (5 pm)
NB: The USDX is in the daily Cloud so I'm wary with all signals on USD pairs! Being Cloud bound suggests a lack of decent trend hence my hesitation with any USD trend signals.

E/U: this gave a new signal off my 5 pm candle:

Monday 13th Jan (3.30 pm)
USDX: is testing the weekly 200 EMA. A break and close below this level might be quite bearish:

USDX Ichimoku: price is back in the daily Cloud: 

Open TS signals: these TS signals have carried over from last week:
AUD/NZD: limping along as there is some AUD and NZD strength:

Silver: hitting some recent resistance:

Gold: the psychological $1250 level giving it some pause:

New TS signals after my 1 pm candle:

Kiwi: is also breaking through a daily trading channel trend line: 

U/J: I'd be wary though with the major support of the monthly 200 EMA just below price. A safer option might be to wait for any close and hold below this key level:

GBP/AUD: the 'neck line' of the daily chart H&S is below price. A break of this S/R level would help this signal. 

Nothing on the cable or E/U just yet.

Monday 13th Jan (11.15 am)
A/U: this is trying to get over the 0.90 but RBA sentiment weighs heavy here. Gold is trying to push higher and this is no doubt creating some tension for the Aussie. As they say, beware of the Midas Touch!
A/U 4 hr

Gold 4 hr: TS signal choppy but going in the right direction for now:

AUD/NZD: this TS signal is still going:

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