Monday, November 25, 2013

Trading Week 25/11/13

Sat 30th Nov (5.20 am)
Indices: The USDX is putting in a bit of a bounce off the weekly 200 EMA to finish the week:

S&P500: some end of month profit taking but it seems we have a close above the 1,800!

The TS signals are still open but this late move on the USDX might see them close off soon:
E/J: has given 120
Cable: has given 100:
U/J: has given 80

EUR/GBP: H&S evolving it seems:

Fri 29th Nov (6.30 pm)
I'd be locking in profit now. Some reversals might be on the way.

Fri 29th Nov (4.30 pm)
TS signals: these are still ticking along but two of them are butting up against major resistance levels now.

E/J: has yielded up to 120 pips but struggling at the 140 level. This level is just below another key S/R level and that is the 61.8% fib retrace level after the last major down move from 2008 to 2012:

Cable: this has given up to 80 pips but is struggling at the triangle trend line on the monthly chart: 

U/J: has given up to 70 pips:

NB: It looks like the Nikkei will close above the 15,000 level for the month and that is a significant development.

Fri 29th Nov (12 pm)
USDX: this is still well and truly bogged in the daily Ichimoku Cloud. So, if you're wondering why the USD pairs aren't doing too much.....that's why!

E/U: slowly but surely drifting up to the 1.365 S/R level:

Cable daily: lurking under a major triangle trend line. Any break and hold above this level might offer trade entry opportunity next week:

Kiwi daily: H&S evolving:

Aussie dailyH&S evolving here too: 

I'm in at the hospital again this arvo.

Fri 29th Nov (9 am)
USDX: I'm not expecting too much movement here but I'm watching the weekly 200 EMA support level:

E/J: I have been saying for weeks that the E/J might target the 140 region. Well, it's almost there!

Fri 29th Nov (6.30 am)
Indices: the USDX looks like its struggling a bit to hold above the weekly 200 EMA. It is also still stuck in the daily Cloud. This, along with thin trading volumes, is enough reason to go find something else to do watch the Nikkei to see where it closes for the month! The EURX is holding up above the key support of the monthly 200 EMA and the daily Cloud:

USDX 4hr:
USDX daily Cloud:

EURX 4hr:
EURX daily Cloud:

The three open TS signal trades are all positive but only just:
E/J: 50
Cable: 60
U/J 40

Not much else happening. I am keeping an eye on the EUR/AUD and the 1.50 level:

I would like a pull back to the 1.75 on the GBP/AUD as well.

Kiwi might still unfold for a full 340 pip move with its H&S pattern:

A/U: this has taken a bit of a pause on its H&S pathway:

EUR/GBP: hasn't started its H&S as yet:

These, along with the Nikkei, mean that I might have to visit Santa for some of this 'wish list'!

Thurs 28th Nov (8.30 pm)
Stocks: monthly candles close off at the end of this week and I'm watching a few strong stocks as they push up to key S/R levels. My analysis of these stocks can be found through this link.

Three TS signals still open although only just!

Thurs 28th Nov (4.50 pm)
EUR/AUD: I wrote earlier today about possible targets for any continued bullish moves on the Cable and the GBP/AUD. Well, in that same vein, watch for any break and hold above the 1.50 level on the EUR/AUD. Possible further bullish targets might be up towards the 61.8% fib retrace level at the 1.74 region!

Thurs 28th Nov (4 pm)
EUR/GBP: this H&S is forming up more so now:

Thurs 28th Nov (2.25 pm)
Two TS signals have closed off.

GBP/AUD: closed off after 200. I would expect this to pull back to test the 1.75 level as this was such a major S/R level and not one to be given up so easily:

EUR/AUDclosed off after 100:

The E/A has been range trading between 1.4 and 1.5 for some time. It is not surprising that it has stalled at the 1.5 level:

E/J: still going...only just.

Thurs 28th Nov (7.20am)
GBP/AUD: I wrote in my 5.40 am update about the Cable and possible targets for any bullish triangle break out there. I've also been looking back over the GBP/AUD. This pair has made a recent bullish breakout above the 1.75 region. The monthly chart is the best here as well to look for further possible targets. I have drawn fib levels in on the monthly chart BUT I have ignored the 2008 spike. That is why fibs are so arbitrary! Anyway, a fib drawn from the swing high in 2006 to the recent low of 2013 puts the 61.8% level up near the monthly 200 EMA and in the 2.13 region. 

G/A 4hr
G/A daily
G/A weekly
G/A monthly

This pair has a terrible spread with my broker so I don't trade it but a pull back to test the 1.75 would be mighty tempting!

Thurs 28th Nov (5.40 am)
USDX: this has continued to range trade between the weekly and daily 200 EMA. It bounced back up off the weekly 200 EMA overnight:

EURX: this continues to hold above key support of its monthly 200 EMA. It's baiting that previous trend line too: 

USDX Daily Ichimoku:  this index remains stuck in the daily Cloud. That is why we are seeing more and bigger style moves in the cross pairs than in the USD pairs. I don't expect to see any real trends in the USD pairs until this index escapes the resistance of this daily Cloud. Even the A/U moves have been moderate considering its current status and all of the 'talking down'.

EURX daily Ichimoku: continues sitting up above the Cloud:

S&P500: choppy. I'd love a pull back but Thanksgiving might help to hold stocks up this week:  

E/J: this TS signal is holding up but not looking very convincing:

Cable: gave 40 pips before pulling back. This pair might become more choppy now as it is trading right up under the major resistance of the monthly chart triangle trend line:

Cable 4hr
Cable daily
Cable weekly

Cable monthly: possible targets for this pair might be best evaluated from the monthly chart. Any continued bullish momentum and break above the triangle trend line could see this pair possibly aim for the 1.8 region. This is up around the region of the 61.8% fib pull back level:

U/J: as suspected this did give a TS signal off my 1 am candle:

Missed TS signals: I missed seeing these 2 TS signals form up but I'm just noting them here anyway: 
GBP/AUD: has given up to 200 pips

EUR/AUD: up to 100 pips.

So...any moral or key learning here guys. Yep!!!! Make sure you check your cross pairs when the USD index is stuck in the Cloud!

E/U: choppy no TS signal here:

'Head and Shoulder' patterns on the Aussie and Kiwi:  neither of these pairs have given clean TS signals off the 4hr charts this week. The technical 'H&S" patterns seem to be unfolding though.

Aussie H&S daily: as noted in my w/e write-up, the expected move from this pattern could be up to 400 pips which would indicate a target of around 0.885 region, the area of the previous Aug lows:  

Kiwi H&S daily: the move here could be 340 pips which would place this pair back down in the 0.78 region: 

I'm cautious ahead of the lighter volume end of week with Thanksgiving and, also, end of month. I'm keen to see where some monthly candles close as I consider that these might help to dictate some  future direction. 

Wed 27th Nov (9.10 pm)
E/J: a new TS signal:

Cable: here too with a break of resistance as well: 

U/J: is very close to a new signal and should form up by the 1 am candle.

BTW: I did miss a new signal earlier on the GBP/AUD.

Wed 27th Nov (5 pm)
Well, I thought this 5 pm candle close might give a new TS signal on the E/J and even possibly the Cable. Nope! Note also that the Nikkei is down again today.

EURX: this is almost back above that major monthly/weekly chart triangle trend line that was broken some weeks ago. You have to admire the fighting spirit of this index! If I had to sit at a dinner and chat with any of the FX instruments, then, I'd have the EURX on one side and the Cable on the other.

Wed 27th Nov (11.45 am)
Not much happening and no changes. 

I'll be keen to see what the Nikkei does today. I would like it to test 15,000 and, then, close higher by the month end (ie: this Friday!). Not too much to it?

I'm out for a few hours.

Wed 27th Nov (9 am)
Cable: I still don't have a new TS signal on the Cable 4hr chart. I'm mentioned in my earlier post that the state of the USDX daily Ichimoku Cloud and the looming 'Thanksgiving' holiday might both contribute to weaker momentum all around.

Cable 4hr:

Cable daily: the daily chart shows how this pair is still range bound:

Cable 4hr Ichimoku Cloud: price is above the 4hr Cloud. Note the earlier bullish T/K cross signal. 

Cable daily Ichimoku Cloud: price is above the daily Cloud as well and there has been a recent bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross here. This cross evolved above the Cloud and, thus, is deemed a 'strong' signal. There is the strong resistance zone at the 1.625 area (drawn in on all charts) that needs to be broken before I'd be happy to long here though anyway.

Wed 27th Nov (7.50 am)
Indices: these have drifted to more 'risk on':
USDX: drifting lower but still stuck between the weekly and daily 200 EMA:
EURX: drifting higher:

USDX daily Cloud:  The index is still stuck in the Cloud on the daily chart time frame. The slow downward pace and Cloud pattern means that the index has further to fall to move out of the Cloud. Many of the pairs continue to move little or be choppy this week and this isn't surprising given the USD index is bogged down in the resistance of the Cloud. This was the case last week too but, back then, we had the AUD helping moves all thanks to the RBA. There isn't any other 'helping hand' so far this week.

I don't have any new TS signals yet but I'm not too surprised. There will probably be thinning volume as we approach the Thanksgiving w/e and this will impact momentum. I'm expecting just more of the same until next week unless there is any major news. I have noticed that Thanksgiving w/e often tend to drift, even if only mildly, with 'risk on' more than 'risk off'.

E/U: no new TS signal
Cable: no new TS signal

I'll keep watching though.

Tuesday 26th Nov (8.40 pm)
The E/U looks like it's moving. Might give a signal off the 9 pm candle but I'm sick with a head cold and heading off.

Tuesday 26th Nov (5 pm)
E/J: as good as closed off now too:
No new signals.

I'm hoping for deeper pull backs but I'll go with whatever turns up.

Tuesday 26th Nov (2.20 pm)
USDX is still tracking sideways and range bound between the daily and weekly 200 EMAs:

EURX: is still holding up above the key monthly 200 EMA. 

It seems to be a battle of the EMAs!

Tuesday 26th Nov (10.50 am)
Gold: Gold and Silver were up overnight yet the USD was flat. There are a few reasons for this rally being suggested around the place. I'm watching for any new TS signal on the 4hr chart but can't see one yet. Also, I do find that many trading instruments tend to re-visit broken trend lines before any follow through. So, I'm wondering if Gold might just be trying to test the broken triangle trend line here:
Gold 4 hr:
Gold weekly:

More signals are closing off:

Tuesday 26th Nov (9.30 am)
EUR/AUD: this signal has closed off now:

Cable: I'm noting that a 61.8%fib pull back following the last up move would put price back down at the 1.60 region. I'm hoping so!

Tuesday 26th Nov (7 am)
Indices: these are both chopping sideways but the EURX has managed to cling on to the monthly 200 EMA for now:

 E/J: signal still going...just:
A/U: ditto

Cable: pulling back nicely. I want everyone to cheer it back down to the 1.60! 
Kiwi: choppy:
U/J: signal still going:

EUR/AUD: still open at the moment but looks like it might close soon: 

AUD/NZD: moving back up but might only test the broken 1.12 level:

GBP/AUD: signal closed now

Monday 25th Nov (9.10 pm)
E/U: this signal has faded and closed off flat:
G/U signal has closed off too:

Monday 25th Nov (5.15 pm)
I would not be surprised to see some pull backs after these big FX moves and so I'd be locking in profit.

Monday 25th Nov (4.30 pm)
Orders: I've put in orders to buy U/J @ 100 and Cable @ 1.60. I'm not trading GBP/AUD but an order @ 1.75 would be my pick.

Monday 25th Nov (4.10 pm)
The Nikkei: is well up again today!

Indices: both are drifting higher!

Kiwi: This TS signal has closed off and there hasn't been a daily candle close below the neck line yet: 
E/U: signal is limping:
E/J: up 200:
A/J: still at 180:
G/U; at 40 ahead of resistance: 
U/J: at 130:
GBP/AUD: at 480:

AUD/NZD: below the 'triple bottom: 

Monday 25th Nov (10.30 am)
I am in at the hospital for most of the morning for checks. Not too much happening with FX though but Mrs Cable is off and running early:

She will run into some resistance soon and this may slow her a bit....maybe. Personally, I'd like a pull back to test the 1.6 again! 

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