Monday, November 18, 2013

Trading Week 18/11/13

Sat 23rd Nov (5.50 am) A MASSIVE pip haul from TS signals this week!

Indices: It is looking like the EURX may close the week out back above the major support of the monthly 200 EMA. The USDX has dipped in response:

E/U: there is a new TS signal on the E/U from my Fri 11 pm candle: 

The maximum pip movement on the the other open TS signals is as follows:

E/J: 130
A/U: 180
Cable: 10:
Kiwi: 160:
U/J: 80
EUR/AUD: 320!!!!!!
GBP/AUD: 460!!!!!!

To think I'd been so unkind to the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD in my recent weekly reviews!

BTW: Gold has plateaued with the falling USD:

Fri 22nd Nov (9.45 pm)
A/U: H&S break down:
The A/U continues to break down from the H&S pattern. The height of the 'Head' on this pattern was about 400 pips. The theory then goes that the target for the down move from the neck line should also be around 400 pips. A 400 pip from this neck line would put the A/U down near the previous lows at the 'double bottom'. Nifty, if nothing else!

Fri 22nd Nov (9.30 pm)
E/U: this is trying to form up a new signal here too:

Fri 22nd Nov (1.40 pm)
No real changes here with the many open TS signals BUT...check out the Nikkei!

Fri 22nd Nov (9.20 am)
Cable: a new long signal here and I'm happier with this one!

A/U: I'd be locking in profit here. That latest reversal-style 'Hammer' candle suggests a pull back. It might only get back to the broken neck line though:

Fri 22nd Nov (6.40 am)
Indices: a look at the indices might suggest that little happened in the last US session but.... throw in some 'talking down' of the AUD and, then, there were some big moves:

S&P500: this has bounced up again and would have been a nice 30 min trade during the US session! The Holy Trinity alignment of the S&P500, U/J and Nikkei is still in tact!
U/J: signal has given 60:

The best signals were the AUD ones:
A/U: signal has given 130

GBP/AUD: signal has given 300. Note how this pair has now also broken back up through a major S/R level of 1.75. This can be seen on the monthly chart:

EUR/AUD: signal has given 130:

Kiwi: signal has given 110:

Cable: this was the only losing signal @ -80 AND I had warned as such. 

E/U: I didn't ever receive a signal here and that's just as well as it has moved very little: 

A/JI didn't ever receive a signal here either and it has been choppy:

Thurs 21st Nov (9.15 pm)
S&P500: My TS signal has not closed off here just yet:

Thurs 21st Nov (9.05 pm)
Indices: the USDX is still in the Cloud but the EURX is trying hard to get back up and out of its Cloud:

E/U: I didn't ever get a TS signal here and just as well! 

A/U: AUD being talked down and thus this signal ended up giving 70 pips so far: 

Cable: I think this will fail and I'd be wary here:

Kiwi: has given 80 so far:
U/J: has given 40:

GBP/AUD: the best of them...has yielded up to 130 pips: 

EUR/AUD: a new signal here on my 9 pm candle close:

Thurs 21st Nov (6.15 pm)
Not a lot happening just now so thought I'd share this stock:
ZNGA: I've been stalking this and the $4 level. It finally broke this last night. Watching to see if it can close the week and month out above this S/R level:

Thurs 21st Nov (5.05 pm)
Two new signals on the U/J and Cable:
U/J: new signal:
Cable: new signa:

Thurs 21st Nov (2.20 pm)
No new TS signals from the majors yet. The E/U, G/U & U/J are trying hard though:

GBP/AUD: I missed this new signal on my 9 am candle but not trading this pair anyway:

AUD/NZD: this closed off for a small loss on my 1 pm candle:

Thurs 21st Nov (9 am)
A/U: this has given a new signal BUT there is Chinese data out later so I'm waiting until after that. Also, price is getting back down near the H&S 'neck line'. So, I will wait to see if that breaks:

Gold: this won't be helping the Aussie at all though!

E/U: a signal is trying to form but the last 4hr Doji has me cautious just now:

Cable: this hasn't joined the 'risk off' party and this has me cautious as well.

S&P500: this has turned back up a bit on the 30 min charts. I'm thinking we need a decent pull back here for sure but I'm not convinced we're going to get it! 

Thurs 21st Nov (7 am)

S&P500: My 'long' signal might be closing off. Need to see today's closing candle.

X US Steel:    I've closed my Jan $21 Calls. 
Bought @ $1.66. Sold @ $6.30.
ROIC (excluding commission) : ($6.30 - $1.66/$1.66) x 100 = 280%
I'm watching to see if this stock holds and, if so, I'll be buying more Calls down the track.

MSFT: I've closed my Jan $35 Calls.
Bought @ $1.33. Sold @ $2.56
ROIC (excluding commission) : ($2.56 - $1.33/$1.33) x 100 =92%
I'm watching to see where MSFT closes this month. A close above $37 would be bullish and a psychological boost and I'd be then buying those Calls.

As always, wish I had bought more!

I'm watching for any market pull back here now. I still see 1,685 as a possible magnet for the S&P500.  I'll look to buy Puts if this continues.

Thurs 21st Nov (5.30 am)
Indices: stronger than expected retail sales data has boosted the USD and put pressure on the EURX. The EURX has fallen back below key S/R levels:

AUD/NZD: this signal is now positive: 

Gold: this has slumped on fears that easing may wind up sooner rather than later. FOMC minutes, out shortly, might determine its short term fate:

Stocks: are choppy ahead of FOMC minutes:

E/U: trying to print a new SHORT signal:

E/J: that shooting star candle was a good indicator. The E/J is trying to print a new SHORT signal too. The triple top might still win here:

A/U: maybe a short signal looming here too:

G/U:  not here though!

Kiwi: this did give a new TS signal on my 4 am candle: 

U/J: flat lining along the 100 here:

Wed 20th Nov (9.15 pm)
No new signals. All trading eyes will be on USD Retail Sales and FOMC. These will mos likely determine the direction of the USD and trading sentiment.

Wed 20th Nov (5.30 pm)
A/J: this signal closed off for - 40:

AUD/NZD: this seems to have closed off too for -20:

The extra choppiness this week seems related to the USDX being stuck in BOTH the 4hr and daily Cloud. That's handy to know!

Wed 20th Nov (5.15 pm)
USDX: still stuck in the Cloud as it is getting some support from the weekly 200 EMA:

Wed 20th Nov (1 pm)
E/J: Hmph! No new TS signal just yet AND there was a bit of bearish reversal style 'shooting star' for the last 4hr candle: 

A/J: some Yen strength seems to be impacting these Yen pairs. The A/J has pulled back too:

Personally, I'm waiting for the USDX to make a clear exit from the Cloud. Up or down...don't care....just OUT. 

Wed 20th Nov (11 am)
Indices: the USDX closed right at the bottom edge of the daily Cloud. The EURX has closed back above the monthly 200 EMA; a huge S/R level to break back over for this index!

Wed 20th Nov (10.20 am)
USDX: the daily candle has still yet to close but it is making a push below the Cloud as I type. We may just get that Ichimoku alignment today!

Wed 20th Nov (9.40 am)
E/J: A TS signal did not evolve on the 9am candle. There is still time for this develop though. It is clearly trying to shake off the 'triple top' issue:

A/J: still ticking along:

AUD/NZD: down but not out:

Gold: LOL! I'm clearly not the only person on the planet with this trend line drawn in!

Wed 20th Nov (6.50 am)
Indices: The USDX has plateaued a bit but the EURX is back to trading right up under the monthly 200 EMA. This will be a HUGE test for the index! US Retail Sales data later tonight might help determine if the index can get back up and over this major hurdle;

Ichimoku Alignment: We're not there yet. The USDX looks like it will be closing within the Cloud for yet another day! It has fallen down through the 4hr Cloud for now though: 

S&P500: this index chopped lower overnight.  Interestingly, FX chopped higher with more of a 'risk on' sentiment!

AUD/NZD: not looking too healthy:
E/U: holding

E/J: should form a new TS signal on my 9 am candle.

A/U: no new signal here but this is holding up too. It is up and out of the 4 hr Cloud now. It's trying to navigate the 4hr 200 EMA at the moment: 

A/J: gave a new TS signal on my 4 am candle: 
Cable: flat

U/J: also looks close to a new TS signal.

All eyes will be on the USD Retail Sales data due out in the next US session. Some think this might be weaker than expected and, thus, promote a delayed US tapering stance. This is then suspected to hurt the USD which, then, might lift EUR/AUD/NZD/Stocks etc. That is back to a 'bad news being good news' kind of stance. 

The Nikkei closed lower yesterday BUT it is still above the major S/R level of 15,000. A close above this level for the month will be a huge achievement. Its still got some time to go though until then.

Tuesday 19th Nov (9 pm)
No new TS signals.

The only open signal for now is the AUD/NZD and it is only limping...

Tuesday 19th Nov (7 pm)
Ichimoku Alignment: we are close to having the EURX and USDX charts aligned for 'risk on' across the 4hr and daily chart time frames. The EURX is above the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily charts:
EURX daily Cloud:
EURX 4hr Cloud:

The USDX is trading in the bottom edge of the Cloud on the daily and 4hr time frames. Further bearish movement MIGHT see this index emerge below the Cloud on both time frames. If so, this would put the indices into 'risk on' alignment! 
USDX daily Cloud
USDX 4hr Cloud:

Clearly, we need to wait to see this daily candle close (tomorrow) before this alignment can be confirmed.

FYI: the last alignment period saw the E/U move almost 300 pips. This is no guarantee for the future is worth noting!

Tuesday 19th Nov (5.15 pm)
USDX: The USD index is mired within the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily and the 4hr time frame. This is making for choppy trading on US pairs:
USDX daily Cloud:
USDX 4 hr Cloud:

Cable: this TS signal has petered out to a close after yielding 90 pips. 

AUD/NZD: this cross has given a new TS signal through: 

Tuesday 19th Nov (3 pm)
Gold: this is back down near the triangle support BUT no new short signal on the 4hr chart just yet:

Silver: hindsight is pretty clear I know but, really, a short after the close below $21.50 and the fact it's below the Ichimoku Cloud on all time frames was a bit of a 'no-brainer' trade here!

Nikkei: is down today BUT still above the 15,00 at the moment. These lofty highs being printed across US stocks is making some nervous and, thus, I'm not surprised by this FX choppiness. Anyway, the USDX daily chart is still stuck in the Cloud and has been for the 5 days...where's Mick Jagger when you need him?

Tuesday 19th Nov (1 pm)
No new TS signals.

AUD/NZD: a new TS signal is trying to form up here though:

Tuesday 19th Nov (9 am)
A few TS signals have closed off now. This is not surprising and I'd expect a bit of slowing momentum or even some 'risk off' given the stock market highs:

A/U: this signal closed off for a loss of 30 pips:

E/J:  closed now too but the 135 is acting as some reasonable support! Max pips was 110. There is still a possible triple top evolving though.

A/J: closed off now too after a maximum of 100 pips: 

Tuesday 19th Nov (6.15 am)
Indices: There wasn't a whole lot of movement overnight. Stocks are putting in new highs and this might slow momentum even further. The USDX found support back at the 50% fib level. The EURX continues its slow grind higher though:

S&P500: ditto. This topped 1,800 during the US session! 

E/U: a close above the 1.35 would be a bullish signal 
E/J: still going
A/U: struggling a bit:

A/U: the Cloud is offering some resistance:
A/J: still going too
Cable: still going too

U/J: No new TS signal BUT holding above the 100 still:

Monday 18th Nov (9.15 pm)
U/J: this TS signal has now closed off. 

E/U: A TS signal did NOT evolve BUT there has been a triangle break (of sorts) and a close above the 1.35. It might be best to see if the daily candle can close above this S/R level though:

Monday 18th Nov (5.20 pm)
Further to my 5.10 pm update on the Aussie:

E/U: signal building but needs to hurry:
E/J: tested the surprises there!
A/J: up to 90 pips now:

G/U: also up to 90 but more if you waited for the pull back to the 1.60! 

U/J: hovering near the 100: 

AUD/NZD: maybe was a good bounce trade?

GBP/AUD: a new signal building here maybe: 

Monday 18th Nov (5.10 pm)
A/U: I did receive a new TS signal on the A/U. This follows on from a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the Ichimoku Cloud 4hr chart too. 

BTW: There isn't any red flag news tonight. these kind of nights are often, but not always, positive for 'risk on'.

Monday 18th Nov (2.45 pm)
A/U: A TS signal is trying to build here and has been since last week. The current 4hr candle is really the last opportunity the Aussie has in this section to form one. My candle closes at 5 pm so I'll update after that. 

Monday 18th Nov (1 .15 pm)
Indices: Not too much movement yet through this Asian session.

No new TS signals.

Open signals on E/J, A/J, Cable and U/J still going.

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