Monday, November 11, 2013

Trading Week 11/11/13

Sat 17th Nov (6.15 am)
Indices: It might not look like much but the move with the EURX overnight has seen it break some hefty resistance! The candle has yet to close for the w/e BUT a close above the possible inverse H&S 'neck line' would be pretty significant, at least I think so!

TS signals: all of these are in positive territory:

E/J: up 100
A/J: up 80
G/U: up 70
U/J: 50

E/U: triangle break but no TS signal yet 
A/U: no signal yet

Kiwi: almost a signal here:

S&P500: not much happening here:

Fri 16th Nov (11.45 pm)

S&P500: might be a good SPY trade night:

Fri 16th Nov (11.30 pm)
E/U: a TS signal seems to be building

BTW: I'm listening to this.

Fri 16th Nov (11.20 pm)
EURX: I can identify with this just won't give up!

Fri 16th Nov (11.15 pm)
A/U: still no TS signal:

Fri 16th Nov (5.40 pm)
I'm out for the evening soon...I'll check back in again when I get home. I'm listening to this whilst I start my w/e blog write up. I'm long E/J and U/J for now and leaving them. 

Fri 16th Nov (5 pm)
A/U: no TS signal yet:

EURX: struggling a bit now:

Fri 16th Nov (3.20 pm)
Home now.... Yeah! So so glad to be my (trading) room.

Nikkei: check this out. This is the chart after yesterday's close. It hasn't got today's huge move factored in just yet! I was stalking this Index at the end of last month for a close above the trend line. Maybe....just maybe....we'll get there this month. Stay tuned!

Fri 16th Nov (2 pm)
Home now.... Yeah! So so glad to be my (trading) room

Indices: Still not a whole lot happening BUT, check out the EURX! It just seems to refuse to roll over. It's still under the key S/R level of the monthly and 4hr 200 EMAs, monthly pivot and the 50% fib. Notice also how there seems to be a bullish 'inverse H&S pattern' building. A break above the 4hr 200 EMA would be a rather bullish signal:
EURX 4hr:

EURX 4hr Ichimoku: note how the index is trying to break back above the Ichimoku Cloud. The top of the Cloud will offer some resistance BUT, success here, would suggest some bullish action might be ahead!

USDX: not too happy here it seems.

E/J: signal now up 70 pips!

A/U: a TS is building up here. I need the 5pm candle close. There has been a 4hr bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross here too!

A/J: this TS signal is now up 55 pips:

G/U: up a little here:

U/J: this TS signal is up 30 pips:

Gold: I didn't get a clean TS signal here BUT, if the USD rolls over, I'd look to long here on a break back above the $1,300:

ASX 200: SPI: note the great 15 min chart momentum trade here today! I've been on the road all day but looking to trade this index next week, opportunity permitting that is. I'll be posting this 'journey' here:

Fri 16th Nov (6.20 am)
Indices: Both indices were fairly flat

S&P500: chopping higher
E/U: grinding back up to 1.35
E/J: up a bit
A/U: hovering above the 0.93 'neck line' area:
A/J: signal is flat:
Cable: flat too BUT a long from 1.6, as suggested yesterday, would have yielded 100 pips!
U/J: a new signal came through on my 1 am candle:

I'm heading home today and will update when I can.

Thurs 14th Nov (9.30 pm)
No further TS signals on the 9 pm candle close.

The A/J and Cable signals are down. I am wondering if the Cable just needed to test the 1.60 again though. I said as much this morning.

Thurs 14th Nov (6.50 pm)
E/U: doing 'the limbo'?

A/U: getting 'talked down' again!

I missed these signals from my 5 pm candle close. They are being dragged along by the U/J I think:

Thurs 14th Nov (6.30 pm)
Indices: not doing too much at the moment:

Thurs 14th Nov (9 am)
Cable: this has given a new LONG signal but I'd prefer to enter back at 1.60:

Gold: this TS short signal has closed after yielding almost $20 worth of fall:

Silver: this TS short signal is still going and has yielded almost $1 worth of fall: 

SPI: I'm keen to see how this goes today!

Thurs 14th Nov (6 am)
Indices: the USDX rally has paused and the EURX is trying to keep going:

S&P500: turned back up overnight. It has peaked up over an all time high:  

Silver and Gold are the only open TS signals. These are still going but Gold has paused at the trend line so I'd be locking in profit here:

E/J: this long signal had closed off but another seems to be building: 
E/U: doing little

A/U: holding above the neck line: 

Cable: had a big bounce off the support trend line! 

Kiwi: holding above the H&S neck line for now too: 

U/J: seems a little lost at the moment:

Wed 13th Nov (8.55 pm)
E/J: this TS signal has closed off now after giving up to 75 pips:

Wed 13th Nov (8.40 pm)
EURX: starting to struggle now:

Wed 13th Nov (6.10 pm)
Indices: The EURX is struggling at that congestion zone (discussed earlier). A failure to continue up from here could spell more 'risk off':

A/U: trying to hold above support but looking heavy:

Cable: ditto
 Kiwi: ditto

Gold: is trying to avoid going off a cliff: 

Wed 13th Nov (10.30 am)
I'm away from home at the moment and will update when I can.

Indices: the USDX has just tracked sideways but the EURX has been on a bit of a tear:

EURX: note the EURX has pulled back but to an increasing number of potential road blocks. It is in the region of the:

  • major support trend line (recently broken).
  • the 50% ~ 61.8% fib region of the last down move.
  • monthly pivot.
  • monthly 200 EMA: this is a major S/R level!
  • 4hr 200 EMA
  • the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud.

Note also how price is butting up against the 4hr Ichimoku Cloud.

E/J: the only open TS signal on a currency pair. This has yielded up to 75 pips!

E/U: biding its time. No TS signal here at all!

U/J: holding up and out from the triangle break. Watch the Nikkei today though:

Aussie: watch the H&S neck line:

Kiwi:  watch the H&S neck line here too:

Cable: watch for any close below this recent support:

Silver: this TS signal is racing along. This was always going to evolve given Silver was under $21.50 at the end of the week. Also, below all Clouds on 4hr, daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Go back and check my w/e notes on this!

Gold: this TS signal is moving too. Note how price is also down near a support level in the form of a weekly chart triangle support trend line! A breach of this level would be very bearish indeed and probably spell bad news for the Aussie too! 

S&P500: pretty flat but overnight:

S&P500 weekly: check out the current weekly candle. I'm still conscious of the counter intuitive divergence pattern here. A pull back, even to the trend line, wouldn't be unheard of even if the over all bull move is to continue:

No new short or long signal from my TS system yet:
Tuesday 12th Nov (8.30 pm)
Cable: Much of the GBP data was weaker than expected and this is dragging the Cable down below daily support. This might help drag the E/J down too:

Tuesday 12th Nov (8.20 pm)
E/J: a whole lot of traders are looking to short the E/J here. A pin bar reversal candle would be a good clue to short. A close above the monthly pivot might help support any longs:

Tuesday 12th Nov (8.10 pm)
EURX: I've noted a new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the 4hr EURX chart. This is deemed a 'weak' signal though as it came through below the Cloud:

USDX: there was a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the USDX as well that evolved late last week.

Tuesday 12th Nov (6.55 pm)
Cable: getting down to near strong recent support. Data out in a couple of hours though:

Tuesday 12th Nov (6.30 pm)
A/U: this is looking like a H&S pattern is forming on the daily chart here too. Neck line at around the 0.93!

Tuesday 12th Nov (6 pm)
The choppy 4hr charts have meant that many potential signals are not forming up fully within the required time frame.

E/J: this did end up giving a TS signal off the 4hr charts on my 1pm candle:

Kiwi: this is looking bearish on the daily chart though:

U/J: this also didn't give a clean TS signal off the 4hr charts but it was a good technical trade following the weekly candle close out of the triangle. A signal is forming up on the daily charts though!

Silver and Gold: these TS signals carried over from last week are still ticking along:

S&P500: this is shaping up for a possible good intra-day trade off the 30 min charts. Watch for any momentum move after the US markets open. I'll be asleep by then. Don't wake me as I have a lot of driving tomorrow! 

 I notice the Nikkei was up over 2% today! Hmmm. 

Tuesday 12th Nov (9.00 am)
No new TS signals. I thought the E/J might offer one but the candle closed red so...nope!

Tuesday 12th Nov (6.10 am)
Indices: these have shifted to a bit more 'risk on' overnight. This often happens in no or light news sessions.
USDX: bounced back down from the daily 200 EMA:
EURX: bounced up

Ichimoku Alignment: the Index charts are no longer aligned for either Risk On or Risk Off. The USDX is in its daily Cloud and the EURX has moved back above its Cloud. Based on these charts, it looks like a period of choppiness might continue for a bit. 

S&P500: flat with the US holiday. 

SPI: the best trading opportunity that I could see came yesterday during the Asian session with the Aussie SPI 200. This is the futures contract based on the S&P/ASX 200: the top 200 Aussie stocks. Some intra-day trading off the 15 min charts was quite handy. This is something I am exploring. The action here often occurs during the US session though, as you can see from the chart of the previous 24 hr period:

FX: no new TS signals.

Monday 11th Nov (9.00 pm)
Still not much happening so no new TS signals.

Monday 11th Nov (5.10 pm)
Not much movement so, not too surprising, no new TS signals.

Monday 11th Nov (1.10 pm)
Indices: not doing much but the holiday Monday in parts of the world might be a factor here:

I have just had my first 4hr candle close. No new TS signals.

Fibonacci: I saw this TED talk about Fibonacci posted on FX Live today. Worth watching!

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