Price action across most currency pairs was choppy again last night. I hate to be an "I told you so" kind of person but...I could have told you! Whilst the USDX has emerged from its cloud on the daily chart, the EURX has just headed into its daily cloud:
The USDX has stalled at the weekly support bull trend line. I wouldn't have expected it to simply keep moving down from this major level:
I'm away for the w/e so I'm closing off my TS signals for this week:
E/U: gave up to 160 pips
A/U: gave up to 70 but is now at -70. I closed my A/U trade at b/e. The A/U looks to be trying to break the daily bull support trend line. I don't have a TS signal to short this though!
G/U: gave up to 150 pips. I got stopped out for 100 pip profit! Yeah!
USD/SGD gave up to 70 before chopping back around.
Swissie: gave up to 120 pips
Loonie: never fired and is down -70
So, the final TS pip maximum tally for this week is: 160 -70 +150 +70 +120 - 70 = 360 pips!
My own tally was 100 pips. I'm a happy camper this week for sure!
I won't be accessing charts again now until Sunday. I want to see the EURX daily cloud cleared or rejected before being any way confident with the next major trend move anyway. This will probably take until next week to become clear.
I will post my usual w/e updates on my Sunday night.
Please read the earlier posts. I'm out for a few hours now. The USDX is currently trying to break down below the support of the weekly bull trend line. More 'risk on'?
Please read my 7am post before this one.
Major Trend lines on Many Trading Instruments
We are at major trend line break positions on many key trading instruments. I believe that the market will move quite significantly once these trend lines are navigated. I'm not predicting which direction the markets will move at all. The moves could be up or down but I think they could be quite explosive once they finally kick in. I'm simply analysing this from a charting and technical perspective. From the charts though if I was to guess a direction at this stage I would have to say that, against all logic, it looks to me to be towards 'risk on'. Time, no doubt, will tell!
USDX
The USD is currently trying to hold up above a supporting bull trend line on the weekly chart. Further falls should see continued 'risk on' sentiment but a bounce and rally would most likely see 'risk off' and falling stocks:
S&P500:
The S&P500 is trading in overbought territory for sure and is up at the bear trend line of a symmetrical triangle. Price could easily bounce back down from here or break right on up through this barrier. The Elliot wave suggests a pull back is in store and.... I get that and I would love that! The ADX on the daily chart suggests to me otherwise though:
Gold:
Gold is also trading up at the bear trend line of a triangle pattern. Further falls on the USD would most likely see this trend continue on up:
Silver:
Silver, like Gold, is also trying to break up and out of a triangle pattern. A falling USD will probably see this up trend continue:
Interesting times indeed!
Hold on to your hat....I suspect we're in for a fast ride...whatever direction we head!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bis1ldILrg4
I can almost hear the USDX singing this and, it has just about broken free of the Ichimoku cloud.
The USD continued to fall last night but it is not clear sailing down from this point by any means. There are some barriers to further falls for sure. Have a look at the weekly chart and you can see that price has now reached the supporting bull trend line. You can see on the 4hr chart how has price has stalled here a bit. It may chop around here for a bit whilst it makes up its mind what to do next:
The other point to note that is we get more risk on' movement that, whilst we've cleared the USDX daily cloud, there is the EURX daily cloud to get through although it is much smaller:
Some of the signals from earlier this week have kicked on plenty but a couple have stalled.
The E/U is now up 110 pips:
The G/U is up 120 pips:
The Swissie traveled 90 pips:
The USD/SGD is only up about 30:
The A/U is up just above entry....yeh!
The Loonie is dragging the chain though:
The E/J, U/J and A/J are all down but I suspect that is due more to Yen issues after yesterday's poor data.
Check out those metals! They are both now up at their triangle trend lines. I posted about these last night:
Gold:
Check out those metals! They are both now up at their triangle trend lines. I posted about these last night:
Gold:
Silver:
So, I'm still not taking any new trades just yet. I'm still long the A/U and I'm also long the G/U once it held above the daily 200EMA. I want to see if 'risk on' will continue: for this to happen it will need the USDX to continue to break down from the strong weekly support and for the EURX to get up through its daily Ichimoku cloud.
Some of you might remember that back in April we had ranging markets, similar to what we're currently seeing, and that the indices were stuck in the daily Ichimoku 'cloud'. Back then I noticed that 4 hr trend trading was choppy and that trading was best taken by trading from shorter time frame charts. Well, I just had a look back through some of the 30 min charts from last night and the same is holding true for now. Have a look at the chart of the E/U 30 minute below. There was a great TS trend trade that started late in the Asian session and went for up to 100 pips! This came with a trend line break for added confluence:
The Swissie also gave a 90 pip trend move on a trend line break too:
So, a pattern is definitely forming for these choppy markets that is consistent with the choppy markets we had back in April. I'm lovin' it...the scientist in me just loves the trends and patterns that are emerging!
The metals: Gold and Silver
Both of these are looking a bit bullish of late which is hardly surprising given we've had a falling USD and there is talk of more QE3 around. Both metals are trading within triangles and both are rapidly approaching their upper, bear trend lines. Continued falls in the USD will probably see these keeping on with their current uptrend. A return to fear and 'risk off' with a rising dollar might see these both bounce back down though. They're worth keeping an eye on for sure:
Silver weekly:
Not too much to report. The USDX still trading sideways for now:
The USDX continues to chop around. I'm not taking any more signals until it gets out of the cloud, up or down! I'm clearly a rather slow learner!
The choppiness continues. The indices are just moving sideways, for the time being at least.
I'd said on the w/e I'd wait for the USDX daily 'cloud' to be cleared before trading and I should have! My A/U trade is now down but is still above the bull trend line at the moment. Interestingly, most of the other 'risk on' trades are holding up. This all just confirms my theory about choppy markets when the indices are embedded in the daily Ichimoku cloud though so, at least I'm learning and gathering tools to use for future trading.
Wednesday 22/8 (7am)
Nothing much happened after the big moves from earlier last night. The indices have paused after the initial big moves on their breakout:
Some choppiness is still to be expected though as the daily chart still shows the USDX clearly embedded in the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud:
The signals from last night were therefore mixed, and I'm not surprised.
The E/U gave up to 80 pips:
The A/U, Loonie and USD/SGD have chopped around though:
The Swissie gave around 50:
The G/U gave around 40 but looks to be a bit frightened by the 1.58 level just above it. It will be a significant achievement for this pair to close above the daily 200 EMA but there are a lot of road blocks in its path:
US stocks pulled back today though with profit taking after a lengthy rally and reaching new highs. Some choppiness across these markets is to be expected regardless of the USD.
I'm still in 'wait and see' mode a bit.
Tuesday 21/8 (9.45 pm)
I'm still in 'wait and see' mode a bit.
Gee, I go out for a few hours and it all happens. The indices have broken out into 'risk on':
Price is almost through the cloud too:
I've had TS signals form up on the E/U, A/U and G/U to long and the USD/SGD, Swissie and Loonie to short.
I've broken my own rule for the week....I've taken a long on the A/U even though the EURX hasn't closed up and out above the 98 and price is still in the cloud on the daily USDX!
I've adjusted my daily bull trend line for the A/U:
The E/U is starting to look bullish too and is worth watching:
The A/J too:
The USD/SGD is looking bearish:
The Loonie is looking bearish too:
The G/U is the other one to watch, as per my earlier post. There is GBP data out in just over an hour which might give this pair some added life. I'm out for a few hours now though.
The USD/SGD is looking bearish:
The G/U is the other one to watch, as per my earlier post. There is GBP data out in just over an hour which might give this pair some added life. I'm out for a few hours now though.
I want the EURX to break & hold above the 98 first though before 'risk on'. I hope I can stick to my rules from now on!
The USD looks like it's trying to break down a bit:
It still has some way until it gets out of the fog of the daily cloud though:
The weakness in the USD is resulting in some 4 hr TS 'risk on' signals trying to form up on the A/U and G/U.
Trading was flat again across all markets and still on very light volume. The indices are also just bouncing along sideways within their triangles:
Price on the USDX daily is still stuck in the cloud too so, like I've been saying for the last 2 weeks, I'm not expecting too much to happen too soon, unless there is some major news that upsets or excites the markets:
The EURX daily chart shows price embedded within the EMAs which is another precursor of choppiness:
I'm finding this period of choppy markets a lot less frustrating than I did back in April due to having the added tool of the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. This indicator helps to provide me with some framework of expectation for the overall markets. I can look at the daily 'cloud' charts and see, in an instant, what I should expect with movements in the markets. Seeing now also that there is still some way to navigate through the 'cloud' helps to give me greater perspective on the broader market moves. For example, like I mentioned above, given the current breadth of cloud in front of price on the USDX daily chart, I'm not expecting too much to happen this week, barring any major news that is.
The choppiness continues!
We are getting a bit of 'risk on' action which isn't surprising on this light news day:
I'm still wanting to see key levels broken first though...the 98 on the EURX for one!
Nothing much to report so far. The indices aren't doing much:
Price on the USDX is still stuck in the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart:
I suspect that this choppiness will continue until price emerges from this daily cloud. I don't have any TS trend signals on any of the pairs. I closed my A/U short for a few pips. Price is currently retracing, possibly to test the broken trend line. I don't like the fact that I don't have a good signal for this pair on the daily chart AND that I don't have other TS signals:
I'm going to try and wait for clearer signs!
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