Trend trading on the 4 hr charts came back to life a bit towards the end of the week. This coincided with price on the USDX emerging from the resistance of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. TS signals netted a maximum of 360 pips. I even managed to secure 100 pips! Price now has to clear the EURX daily Ichimoku if ‘risk on’ is to continue. I posted notes during the week to explain how many different trading instruments were at significant trend line break regions: S&P500, USD, Gold and Silver. It is not surprising then to see some market turbulence whilst trading at these levels.
E/U: Price broke out from the symmetrical triangle last week. Price is heading up to test yet another bear trend line on the weekly charts; dating back 12 months to August last year!
I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.
I will look to LONG the E/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.
E/J: Price is trading within an upwards trend channel.
I will look to SHORT the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns. The monthly pivot, previous trend line and 4hr 200 EMA are in the way of price falling though.
I will look to LONG the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.
A/U: There is still a possible bull flag pattern in play on the monthly chart. The bear trend line of this monthly triangle pattern is about 100 pips above current price. Price could fall 500 pips though and still conform to the monthly bull flag pattern! Price has broken down through the daily bull trend line but ran in to the monthly pivot and promptly reversed.
I might SHORT the A/U if ‘risk off’ returns and price breaks, closes and holds below the monthly pivot.
I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.
A/J: Price has had trouble holding above the 83 level. The double top did indeed form as suggested last week and price promptly fell almost 150 pips after breaking the 83 level!
I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the monthly pivot.
I MIGHT look to LONG the A/J on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and if prices breaks, closes & holds back above the 83 level.
G/U: Price broke through some significant levels last week; the daily 200 EMA and the S/R level of 1.58.
I would look to LONG the G/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price holds above the 1.58 level.
I MIGHT look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks and holds below the 1.58 area BUT there are lots of road blocks in the way.
USD/SGD: The strong S/R level of 1.241 was too difficult to pass and price has rebounded back up from this level. I have moved the bull trend line a bit lower to reflect these new S/R levels. This means the triangle break from last week has been cancelled.
I’m not trading this pair this week...it’s been too volatile for me.
Swissie USD/CHF: Price broke down and out from the symmetrical triangle and fell almost 170 pips!
I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.
I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.
Loonie: USD/CAD: Price has now broken down below the bear trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart dating back to October last year. This could be signal to a further 1000 pip move down if triangle break out theory holds true! Price meandered most of last week though, seemingly disturbed by this trend line break.
I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.
I will look to SHORT the Loonie on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.
Silver: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking quite bullish.
Gold: Price has broken out and up from the weekly symmetrical triangle pattern and is looking quite bullish although Fridays candle was an indecision style long legged Doji. A rally in the USD might cause this metals rally to pause.
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