The indices are still bouncing sideways. I don't have any new TS signals just yet. The Aussie pairs are trading 'risk off' but the Euro pairs 'risk on'. The A/U is trying to form a TS short and is currently testing the daily bull trend line. Very strange. I'm staying clear!
I'm still cautious whilst price on the USDX is stuck in the cloud!
Don't forget to check out my new blog page 'TS Epiphany'.
The indices continue to bounce sideways. I have just published a new page on my blog. This is the 'TS Epiphany' page. It is quite pertinent to post this page at this stage given the trading conditions we are currently experiencing.
Friday 17/8 (6.15am)
The USD rally was halted overnight with up-beat comments from Angela Merkel. These comments clearly boosted optimism and the VIX, or fear gauge, is now below 14:
The EURX, which yesterday looked like breaking down from the symmetrical triangle, has now broken up and out! I would still want to see the EURX close and hold above the resistance level of 98 though first: this is the area of the monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA
I am still quite wary of any 'risk on' movement though given the state of the USDX daily Ichimoku cloud chart. Price is embedded within the resistance of the 'cloud':
We had a similar situation last April when price was embedded in the daily Ichimoku cloud; with big swings during the US sessions but overall choppy trading on the 4hr charts. Back then I noted how trading was best taken from the shorter time frame charts during the US session. You can go back to the April archives and read how I discussed this ...ad nauseum! I am concerned we may be headed for more of the same again. The 30 min charts of the E/J & E/U shows how shorter time frame trading was more successful last night:
The E/U has now broken out and up of a symmetrical triangle on the 4 hr chart though BUT I don't have a valid TS 'long' signal, for the time being at least:
The E/J has broken up and out of its triangle too and this pair had given a TS signal a few session ago:
The A/J, like the E/J, gave a TS long signal earlier and has now held above the 83 level for some sessions:
I don't have any other 'risk on' TS signals on the other pairs which makes me a bit cautious though. The A/U has yet to get involved in any 'risk on' party which makes me cautious as well. I'd be more inclined to take this pair 'long' than any of the others given it may bounce up from the daily support trend line:
The USDX is having a little rally but this is not being matched with a corresponding fall in the EURX; for the time being at least:
I still want to see the EURX bull trend line break before having confidence with any 'risk off' rally.
Some of the pairs are starting to move that way but I don't have any good and consistent TS signals yet.
The odd thing is that the U/J, which I usually ignore due to finding it erratic, has actually conformed to the latest TS long signal and triangle break out! The world sure is 'topsy turvy' at the moment!
BTW: Here is another Dean Malone video. How to determine daily trading targets:
I still want to see the EURX bull trend line break before having confidence with any 'risk off' rally.
Some of the pairs are starting to move that way but I don't have any good and consistent TS signals yet.
The odd thing is that the U/J, which I usually ignore due to finding it erratic, has actually conformed to the latest TS long signal and triangle break out! The world sure is 'topsy turvy' at the moment!
BTW: Here is another Dean Malone video. How to determine daily trading targets:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/81512/81512.html
There still isn't much movement. The USDX is just bouncing around at the 82.65 level:
There has been a lot of trading chatter that folk are expecting Ben Bernanke to announce QE3 at the Aug 26 Jackson Hole meeting. This trend-less sideways market could last up until then, especially given the light summer volumes we are seeing! There is increasing speculation now though that the Fed will wait even longer before announcing QE3, possibly until closer to the US presidential election. The current Ichimoku Cloud chart for the daily USDX supports this possibility that we might see choppy markets for the month of August:
Mixed data and light Summer trading volumes kept US stocks fairly flat overnight. The USD is trying to rise higher though but is stuck, yet again, at that 82.65 level: the 61.8% fib retrace level, 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot area:
The EURX is trading down near the support level of the daily bull trend line:
Neither chart shows much momentum though as can be gauged from the ADX. This indicator is trading down near or below the 20 level on both indices.
I want a clear break up and out of the 82.65 level on the USDX and a break below the bull trend line on the EURX before trading 'risk off'.
The 'cloud' chart is still showing price is stuck in a lot of resistance:
Wednesday 15/8 (5.15 pm)
Still diddly squat happening with FX...so boring....
This ain't boring though.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0E1bNmyPWww
Wednesday 15/8 (1.30 pm)
Diddly squat happening guys!
BTW: got this today. Dean Malone has some tips for trading during this summer doldrums period. He gives some examples in this video of how to trade any post Asian session breakouts:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/81312/81312.html
USD/JPY: I've been a bit bored with the charts of late with all this sideways stuff so glanced back over the USD/JPY. This is a pair I discounted a while ago as I find it to be too erratic. It has been trading within a triangle for some time now though and has just broken out to the upside. It gave a TS long signal just before the breakout. I won't trade this pair but I'm just mentioning it in passing:
USD/JPY: I've been a bit bored with the charts of late with all this sideways stuff so glanced back over the USD/JPY. This is a pair I discounted a while ago as I find it to be too erratic. It has been trading within a triangle for some time now though and has just broken out to the upside. It gave a TS long signal just before the breakout. I won't trade this pair but I'm just mentioning it in passing:
Currency and stock markets continue to bounce around. The indices are also bouncing around:
The USDX daily cloud chart still shows price is congested amongst the 'cloud', the weekly and monthly pivots and the S/R level of 82.65 (the 61.8% fib retrace level from the last swing high):
Many of the pairs have the ADX and one, or both, of the DMI lines trading below the 20 level. This indicates a lack of momentum with what ever moves these pairs are experiencing. Some examples are shown below:
A/J
A/U: note how price is approaching the daily bull trend line:
Tuesday 14/8 (9.15 pm)
The choppiness continues with the currencies...as expected from the USDX daily cloud chart:
Tuesday 14/8 (6.45 pm)
I've just cross checked my Ichimoku cloud chart with my standard chart for the daily USDX. Further 'risk on' movement, if it occurs, will bring price out of the USDX daily cloud in a similar area to a break on the daily bull trend line. Worth watching:
We're seeing some attempt at 'risk on' trading. Well, this is just gonna get choppier before it gets any better...that's if the same pattern holds up with the 'indices stuck in cloud' scenario as for last April!:
It's a fairly quiet Asian session. The USDX isn't doing too much at the moment:
The daily Ichimoku cloud chart is getting uglier though. The major currency pairs are choppy and this is why:
I'm not trading whilst price is stuck in the Ichimoku cloud on the indices daily charts. To me this would be as foolish as taking a dinghy out to sea in a storm!
BTW: I've posted a new Stocks page for August. I'm tired after a late night and early morning. Tell me if I've made an error with writing out any of the maths.
I'm up early so as to catch the last hour of the stock market. I've rolled some of my options up and out and will update my stocks for August later today once I'm more awake!
The markets were choppy overnight. I could have told them that in advance. Look at the Ichimoku Cloud charts for both the USDX and EURX. For the USDX: price is stuck at the top edge of the cloud. For the EURX: price is stuck in the crossover of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. This is creating a very choppy trading environment indeed:
Odd things were happening over night too: the E/U & E/J rallied whilst the A/U & A/J fell away. The Loonie and the USD/SGD held up too. So, some risk off and risk on stuff happening together. Weird! All the more reason to stay out until some normal ebb and flow returns. The Ichimoku Cloud is great for helping keep me out of this choppy stuff!
Monday 13/8 (4 pm)
There has been little change in the indices and little movement with the currency pairs.
I'm out at a Science Week function for a few hours.
The morning has started off with 'risk off' appetite again. The USDX is having another go at trying to break up over the huge resistance are of the monthly pivot, 4 hr 200 EMA and the 61.8% fib retrace from the last major swing high:
E/U: I received a TS short signal on this pair last Wednesday after a rather big down move. It didn't do much at the time and so I left it. Well, it seems to be dragging on still. Now, I'm starting to see some patterns emerge here with my signals. When they form after a big move I have noticed that price often then drifts sideways for a number of sessions and then picks up again. This might be happening with this old signal too. I'm going to watch it:
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