Trade Week Analysis for 13/08/12

Last week was another quiet one for trend trading and TS as early signals simply faded out.  Stock markets tended to trade ‘risk on’ for most of the week and, in fact, the S%P500 logged a 6 day rally on Friday and has closed above a key psychological level in 1400. The same can do attitude for ‘risk on’ was absent from currencies though. Even the A/U bounced sideways for most of the week. A number of the pairs are at key trend line levels and seem to have paused so as to give themselves time to decide what to do next. Further ‘risk on’ trade sentiment will most likely be choppy and I remind you again of last April and how the whole of that month was choppy. We may be in for a similar session here again where trading is best taken from bounces off key levels or from the shorter time frame charts. 

NB: I will be very cautious with any ‘risk on’ signals due to the ‘Cloud’ resistance on the daily Ichimoku USDX and EURX charts. See my FX Indices Analysis for further explanation here.

E/U: Trading under a daily bear trend line.

I MIGHT look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns. 

I will look to LONG the E/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment prevails and if price can break, close and hold above the bear trend line.

E/J: Trading under a daily bear trend line also.

I MIGHT look to SHORT the E/J on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  

I will look to LONG the E/J on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment prevails and if price can break, close and hold above the bear trend line , monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA.

A/U: There is still a possible bull flag pattern in play on the monthly chart. The bear trend line of this monthly triangle pattern is about 100 pips above current price. I did have a new TS short signal late on Fri but the A/U seems reluctant to trade ‘risk off’ lately.

I MIGHT look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns. 

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains.

A/J: Price baulked again at the 83 level though which is a major level of previously strong S/R. I’ll be watching this level again closely this week.

I MIGHT SHORT the A/J if ‘risk off’ returns but there are lots of road blocks in the path. 

I will look to LONG the A/J on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains and if prices breaks, closes & holds back above the 83 level.

G/U: This pair has been bouncing around a lot. I want it to clear some significant levels before I’ll trade it again.

I would look to LONG the G/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ remains and if price holds above the daily 200 EMA.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns and if price breaks below the 1.56 area.

USD/SGD: This pair has now broken the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the weekly chart. The strong S/R level of 1.241 has been difficult to pass though.

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains and if price can hold below the 1.241 level. 

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment returns. 

Swissie USD/CHF: Price is trading back above the weekly and monthly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA. There is a bull trend line supporting price still on the weekly chart.

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on any new TS signal & if ‘risk on’ returns. I would wait for the bull trend line from the weekly chart to be broken though too.

Loonie:  USD/CAD: Price has now broken down below the bear trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart dating back to October last year. This could be signal to a further 1000 pip move down if triangle break out theory holds true! There was a 'shooting star' candle on Friday though and these can signal a reversal so price might merely bounce back up from this low level and trend line. you'll need to watch it to gauge how it is going to react!

I will look to LONG the USD/CAD on any new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ returns.

  

I will look to SHORT the Loonie on any new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.