Trading Week Analysis for 21/5/12

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 19/05/12; My Indices Analysis and my Trading Week Analysis.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

Last week: last week was a great week for trend trading. I flagged 5 trades during the week and 4 of them netted a possible 670 pips: The Swissie: 170, A/U: 120+, Loonie: 150 and USD/SGD 230 pips. (Charts below).Did I catch all of that action? No way, but I got some of it. I am far from being an experienced trader and need to work on my trade management.

NB: There was clear BoJ intervention on the YEN pairs last week so I won’t trade them this week.

NB: Amid all the doom and Euro zone gloom, I'm mindful of the bullish reversal candle pattern on the EURX weekly chart; a bullish reversal hammer pattern!

E/U: Price fell to near a previous low of 1.262 on Friday and has rallied from there. Price has broken up through a bear trend line going back for the last few weeks. I almost have a TS signal to long this pair. BTW: The bullish inverse H&S pattern on the monthly chart is still valid.

I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal and if price breaks, close and holds below the 1.262 level.  

I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment remains into next week and if the index continues to trade back up.

E/J: I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and if price rallies, breaks, closes and holds above the bear trend line on the 4 hr chart.

A/U: This pair gave a signal early last week that yielded up to 120 pips. Price has broken down below the bottom trend line of the monthly triangle pattern. Price could still pull back though to end up closing within this triangle on the monthly chart as it has some time until it closes. Financial commentators in Australia do not think the A/U will fall very far though as they see this currency becoming a new safe haven currency. I will prefer to LONG this pair than SHORT it.

I might look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if price breaks holds the lower triangle trend line.

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price rallies and bounces up from the lower triangle trend line.

A/J: I might look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal and a break, close and hold above the bear trend line and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.

I won’t SHORT the A/J.

G/U: I missed a new TS signal to SHORT this pair earlier in the week. This trend went on to give around 300 pips! I still have the G/U trading within a bullish ascending triangle pattern (monthly chart).

I would look to LONG the G/U on a new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains.

USD/SGD: This pair broke out from trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern on Monday and gave a trend worth 230 pips! Sadly, for me, this did not come with a new TS signal so I did not take it. This pair has now also closed above a key previous S/R level.

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.  

   

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains.

Swissie: The Swissie broke out and up through the trend line of a bullish ascending triangle pattern on Monday and gave a trend trade that yielded 170 pips! Sadly, for me, this trade also did not come with a new TS signal so I did not take it.

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.  

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull triangle trend line.

U/J: I won’t trade this pair due to its irregular trading patterns.

Loonie:  The Loonie broke out from trading within the symmetrical triangle pattern early in the week and gave 150 pips!

I would look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal and if ‘risk off’ remains.

I would look to SHORT the USD/CAD on a new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.

   

Silver: Note the pin bar reversal candle on the weekly chart. This fact might point to a reversal and, perhaps, a falling USD.

Gold: Gold broke back up and above a bear trend line late last week which, along with a new TS LONG signal, gave up to 400 pips.  It is back to trading within the symmetrical triangle pattern on the monthly chart though now.