Not much to report really. The USDX continues to climb for now but remember it is NFP Friday.
The Cable trade I flagged last w/e though is now up around 250 pips! Hooley dooley!
I'm cooking dinner tonight for some friends who helped me whilst I was sick last year. I hope the evening goes as well as this trade! I'm listening to this whilst cooking.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gzD6eGL6gus
I'd actually be cautious shorting any Yen pair in the short term. Just saw this on FX Live:
Japan senior MOF official: Will respond aggressively if excessive Yen moves continue against EUR and USD
Written by Sean Lee
June 1, 2012 at 00:32 GMT
June 1, 2012 at 00:32 GMT
- Monetary policy is important but shouldn’t rule out intervention
- Current Yen appreciation driven by speculation
PS: This Dean Malone video is worth watching too:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/53112/53112.html
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/53112/53112.html
Friday 1/6 (10 am)
The USDX is still looking bullish at this stage:
It is NFP Friday today so I'm being careful with any potential trading but there a some tempting trdes that look like they're setting up!
The NZD/USD which is still teetering near a significant triangle trend line. A break of 75 would interest me for a short:
I'm also watching the A/J which, I have to admit, I don't like to short but it does seem to be worth watching at the moment. The A/J, like the N/U, is also hovering just above a significant bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart. You may recall that a break out of the A/J from the upper region of this triangle some weeks ago gave a few hundred pips. I've re-drawn the trend lines since then though. A break, close and hold below this trend line might tempt me to short further here though. There is major support at 74 and then again at 72 though to keep an eye on:
The USDX is still holding up for the time being:
The only real stand out in the currencies overnight was the Cable. The G/U has now fallen over 200 pips since it broke down from the significant trend line level of 1.56 that I discussed over the w/e. I caught some of the move at least but I'm sure that many would have caught more of this than I did!
This week has been another FANTASTIC week for my TradeSpotting system and.... a much better week for me!
Tradespotting identified trend trades on 7 pairs this week that yielded a possible 800 pips. I didn't catch all of this movement but got some of it!
E/U: 120 pips
E/J: 170 pips
A/U: 100 pips
A/J: 100 pips
G/U: 120+ pips on the break of the trend line I discussed over the w/e!
USD/SGD: 90 pips
Swissie: 90 pips
My remaining 2 trades were stopped out: the Swissie for 40 pips and the USD/SGD for 50 pips.
Thursday 31/5 (2 pm)
The USDX has slowed a bit at the 83 hurdle level:
I would not be surprised to see the currencies stall a bit now given the major moves we have had.
It has been a fantastic couple of days for TradeSpotting. My TS system continues to thrive but I have not done it nearly enough justice over recent weeks. Some of this is 'time-zone' related for sure but, some is just my poor trade management! I do feel today though a bit like a school kid who finally studied and achieved a good grade and pleasing result!
I'm going to be spending more time over the next few days plotting stocks to buy or option trade. Pullbacks like this get me very excited! I am rather easy to please though!
PS: I am going to watch the NZD/USD though. A break, close and hold below the 75 level and triangle trend line will have me trading it!
PS: I am going to watch the NZD/USD though. A break, close and hold below the 75 level and triangle trend line will have me trading it!
Thursday 31/5 (10am)
I won't be entering any new trades for this week. Tomorrow, being the first day of the new month, might give some reversal from 'risk off' as is often the case.
Trade Update
G/U short: 100 pips. Profit target reached.
A/U short: 100 pips. Profit target reached.
A/J short: 100 pips. Profit target reached.
Swissie long: Up 40 + pips. Stop to b/e.
USD/SGD: Locked in 50 pips. Trade still running.
Thursday 31/5 (6am)
Continued Euro zone fear sent the USDX up further overnight.
This has helped all of my signals from yesterday for sure. I am guilty of a bit of revenge trading in light of missing and /or mis-managing so many signals from earlier in the month.
My trades from yesterday:
G/U short: 100 pips. Profit target reached.
A/U short: Locked in 50 pips. Trade still running.
A/J short: Locked in 60 pips. Trade still running.
Swissie long: Up 40 + pips. Stop to b/e.
USD/SGD: Locked in 50 pips. Trade still running.
I took the Swissie instead of the E/U but the E/U went for over 100 pips too. I didn't take the E/J but it went for over 120 pips.
The USDX is holding above the key 82.6 level. There is over an hour until this 4hr candle closes though. You can see from the chart how price struggled throughout today at this significant fib retrace level:
I have had TS signals to:
SHORT: E/U, E/J, A/U, A/J and G/U
LONG: Swissie
The USDX has had a 4hr candle close right on the 61.8% fib level of 82.6.
It remains to be seen if price will continue upwards from here or bounce back from this significant level.
So far, I have very new TS signals to short the E/U and G/U and to long the Swissie. I'd like to see more signals kick in though.
The 61.8% fib level is proving a bit of a barrier for the USDX.
There is AUD data out at 11.30 which may move things a bit.
I'm getting some 'risk off' signals looking like they're trying to form up.
The post Memorial Day trading has been an interesting one. These days are often positive for stocks and the broader markets have indeed closed around 1% higher, with some risk on appetite evident, but we've also had a rising USD and falling Euro. Is this the beginning of the unraveling of the usual USD/Stocks correlation???
The USDX is currently struggling a bit though to get over the 61.8% fib level that I discussed in my w/e post. This is a 61.8 % fib retrace from the recent lows after the last high. (see the weekly chart below)
This 'risk on' sentiment with stocks did not carry over into the currency markets though. The usual risk on trail blazers, the A/J, A/U and USD/SGD, have all been pretty flat with no new trend evident, for now at least. Gold and Silver have fallen with the rising dollar though.
This 'risk on' sentiment with stocks did not carry over into the currency markets though. The usual risk on trail blazers, the A/J, A/U and USD/SGD, have all been pretty flat with no new trend evident, for now at least. Gold and Silver have fallen with the rising dollar though.
Still no movement. No new trends.
Still not much movement with the indices. No new TS signals just yet. I suspect the US session might kick start things though.
Still no change from earlier today. No TS signals yet.
There isn't much movement and I suspect today might be quiet until other markets come on line.
I don't have any trend TS signals yet.
As suspected, trade was pretty flat across all markets last night with low liquidity. Both indices have merely range traded. Note the ADX on both indices charts; there is very little momentum for either direction.
There isn't much scheduled news for today.http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php.
There might not be much action until later during the European and US sessions.
Monday 28th (8.45pm)
I still have signals on the A/U, A/J and Loonie but, like I said earlier, I'm loathe to take them with the USDX trading up from the 81.7 level and the EURX trading down from the 100.5 level.
I have received a few 'risk on' signals but I'm loathe to take them with the USDX still trading above the 81.7 support level and, also, with many markets being closed today.
The A/U and A/J have also broken trend lines BUT...I'm still going to wait.
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