TradeSpotting delivered up to 820 pips on low risk high reward trend trades this week on just 6 pairs:
EU: 230 pips
E/J 150 pips
A/U 100 pips
Swissie 160 pips
Loonie 100 pips
USD/SGD 80 pips
All of these initial signals came through on my Tuesday night so I missed them. Maybe I should have chased them? That's annoying but it gives me great confidence in my trend trading system! I hope I can catch some moves next week!
The USDX seems to be holding up above the 81.7 level. This points, at this stage, to more 'risk off' trading next week.
The USDX seems to be holding up above the 81.7 level. This points, at this stage, to more 'risk off' trading next week.
I am heading away now for the rest of the w/e. I'll be back late Sun night so may not post until then or even Monday.
The UDX is having a slight pullback as I type. It may just be re-testing the 81.7 trend line though.
You know, that even with all the 'risk off' trading this week, the E/U monthly chart is still looking like it is possible for the bullish Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern to evolve! No, I haven't been drinking...I'm just very open minded about all things trading related.
Friday 25/5 (11 am)
There isn't much happening on the currency front at the moment, just some sideways stuff. I suspect that the markets want a long weekend break too. They're probably sick of moving and want a rest too!
Action across most markets was rather choppy last night. The USDX continues to hold above 81.7 for the time being though and the EURX hovers below the 100.5 level.
Sentiment appears to be getting sick of trading 'risk off' but there seems to be little excuse to turn to 'risk on', even if just to catch breath! I have missed all of the decent moves for this week, yet again. I'm keeping an eye on Gold though to try and get some clue about how things will move from here. It looks, to me at least, to be forming a descending triangle pattern which is a bearish continuation pattern.
I'm also still keeping an eye on that NZD/USD to see if it can close below 75 on the daily chart. I'll then look for a new TS signal on the 4 hr chart.
It is a public holiday in the USA on Monday, Memorial Day. I suspect that Friday's trade might be positive across the broader markets so that this holiday long weekend can be enjoyed by all; just another conspiracy theory of mine
The USDX is still holding above the 81.7 level though not moving too fast!
I have noticed the NZD/USD has an interesting chart pattern of late. I gave up trading this pair as it didn't move much when I was trading it. This pair has had some decent moves of late though. It is currently struggling to stay within the boundaries of a significant symmetrical triangle pattern on the monthly chart. This theory states that if it does break out and down then the move could be up to 1500 pips; that is, the height of the triangle. I would look to see if it closes and holds below 75, gives a new TS signal on the 4 hr charts and, then, I'd consider a 'short'.
The USDX has held above the 81.7 level and I feel that this may now become support. In the same way I feel the 100.5 level might become resistance for the EURX.
There seems to be little good news on the horizon so I'd be expecting more 'risk off' trading.
Continuing worries about a Greek exit from the Euro zone helped to push the USDX up over the 81.7 barrier. Its progress has only been stalled a bit by some further, more positive, news reports.
The Dow had been down as much as 190 points but clawed most of that back and most stocks finished flat. It is worth noting that Gold has started to rise back up even with a rising USD. (see chart) A rising dollar often/usually puts pressure on stocks and commodities. These times are anything but usual though and I keep expecting to see a de-coupling of the normal correlations.
The E/U broke through 1.262 barrier but is re-tracing a bit as I type. This could end up being a classic example of a break out, pullback and continuation trade here and many will now be shorting this pair from the 1.26 level.
You might consider me crazy but I won't be choosing this style of trade. I'm sticking to my TS signal trades. I missed the initial signals on all pairs this week as they came through overnight for me on my Tuesday night. I did try chasing the A/U short yesterday but, as has been my norm of late, I was stopped out because I had my stop too tight. This is annoying for me as the trade did go on to give up to 100 pips from my entry. The trade has given 150 pips from the initial TS entry signal.
The E/U TS signal that came through on Tue night has given up to 200 pips as well:
The Swissie signal from Tue night also gave around 150 pips:
Even the Loonie continues to trend with some order. This trade from last week is now up 220 pips. There was another entry point on Tue night too which has moved 80 pips of this move:
The USD/SGD was the worst performer really with only a 70 pip move and this has been very choppy:
So, all in all, TS is having a good week but not me. Add to this that my son and 3 mates were up until 4am this morning celebrating end of semester exams and making way too much noise for our poor neighbours and all this has me pretty cranky today. It gets worse for me though as they are home from school today and I have them all here for the whole day! I'm heading down to the beach now for a walk to try to gather some strength and to try and calm down!
The USDX has still not been able to close above key resistance of 81.7. The EURX is also holding up above 100.5/6. For now at least.
The USDX is still trying to nudge above the 81.7 level.
I am wary of shorting the Yen pairs but there have been some good trends on them overnight. The A/J respected the bear trend line and gave a 120 + pip move off a signal from the 30 min chart. This move started in last nights US session though:
Yet again, the shorter time frame charts are giving high reward:low risk trade set ups during these choppy markets.
Wednesday 23/5 (4 pm)
The USDX has not been able to close above the 81.7 level. I think it's waiting for some directional clue out of the EU meeting.
I've been stopped out of my A/U short for 15 pips and my USD/SGD long at b/e. The USDX is indeed pulling back below the 81.7 level although it still has 1 hr until it closes. Long term trading today is risky given the EU talks scheduled for later today.
Whilst I slept last night! ............These choppy markets still give good trading opportunities on the shorter time frame 30 min charts during the US session; for those of you who are awake then that is!
E/U: A bear flag trend line break and a new TS signal to short came through on the E/U. This trade has given 100 pips so far. I'm watching now around the lower trend line area at 1.262.
This E/U short could also have been caught by trading the 30 min charts to give up to 80 pips currently:
A/U: The A/U also gave a bear flag trend line break overnight that could also have been caught on the 4 hr charts for up to 90 pips so far. Taking this trade on the 30 min chart could have got you in a little earlier and this trade is up 100 pips so far:
Wednesday 23/5 (10.30 am)
The USDX is currently pushing up through the 81.7 resistance level but the 4 hr candle has a way to close. I just couldn't help myself. I jumped in once the A/U broke and closed below 98 and the USD/SGD closed up through the resistance level. I am wary with the E/U summit meeting scheduled for later today and will manage the trades closely around that time.
The Loonie and the Swissie gave signals too.
Renewed fear of a Greek exit from the Euro zone sent the USD up, the Euro down and US stock down.
Price is choppy on many of the pairs as they trade near recent lows or highs, The E/U is back flirting with the 1.262 level again.
I do now have some TS 'risk off' signals but I won't be taking any 4hr trend trades today. There is an EU summit on Wednesday to discuss the the Euro zone crisis and news from this could send price, on many pairs, racing in any direction. I will also wait to see if the levels on the indices will be respected again or breached; the 81.7 level on the USDX and the 100.5/6 level on the EURX.
I am using this free time, whilst keeping an eye on the FX charts, to also research and consider new stock and option trades.
Most of the signals faded after the earlier news items. The USDX is trying to rally here again:
Tuesday 22/5 (7.30 pm)
Some poor GBP data and Fitch downgrading of Japan has stalled 'risk on' trading and reversed the previous moves.
Tuesday 22/5 (6 pm)
I've got some TS signals in now: A/J, E/J and A/U LONG and USD/SGD SHORT. There is red flag news out at 6.30 pm for the GBP which may stir things a bit though.
PS: Also a signal to Short the Loonie.
This may be just a brief relief rally or a trend reversal. I'm not sure.
Risk on seems to be picking up a bit but there isn't much momentum behind it just yet.
There isn't a whole lot happening. It's almost as if they want to see the US markets put in two days in a row of rally before joining in.
I've got partial signals on a few pairs but nothing convincing just yet. This reflects the indecision noted above. Asian stock markets are trading up though.
Tuesday 22/5 (6am)
Risk On seems to have held across all markets yesterday with European and US stocks trading higher. The USDX and EURX are still trading on the other side of their recently broken trend lines,
Many of the pairs seem to be turning to move towards risk on trading but the A/U is leading the way. It has broken its bear trend line and I almost have a TS signal to go LONG. I'll try to wait for the candle close though!
Still no obvious trend yet. There is no more scheduled news out today so it may be a slow session.
Lots of Dojis and Spinning Top candle formations across the pairs. Indecision Central! I think they're all waiting for the US boys to play ball first!
It seems that risk appetite is picking back up a bit as Europe comes on line. Price broke down through a support trend line on the USDX and it has not been able to close back above this level just yet. It may still well do though....
There is no clear and dominant trend just yet.
I've waited until the first 4 hr candle close for this week on my indices charts before posting. The USDX is still trading down from last week's close and is below the recent bull trend line. The EURX, conversely, is trading above it's close from last week and above its recent bear trend line:
It remains to be seen whether this 'risk on' sentiment will remain once Europe opens later though.
I don't have any valid new TS signals just yet but some pairs are getting close. The Swissie and E/U are two that are close. They have also had trend line breaks:
PS: I have updated my Stocks and Options: May page. I will be watching the behaviour of the USDX and to see whether it can break above the 81.7 before considering any new trades here.
BTW: I'm feeling rather down today on hearing about the passing of Robyn Gibb from bowel cancer. I'm a fan of their music and feel an affinity with them as I battled similar cancer all of last year. So, I'm listening to their stuff today!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kses3SfG-lU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RUjnqH3kMw
This is also following on from, might I add 'stupidly', watching the movie "We bought a Zoo" yesterday. The tissue box is getting a work out!
wow 400 pip week. good job. have a great weekend.
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