Trading Week Analysis for 14/5/12

Note: I have posted 2 reviews today, Saturday 12/05/12; My Indices Analysis and my Trading Week Analysis.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week. This is especially important this week so that you review the EURX charts. This index is approaching a major support level and this may impact on the current 'risk off' sentiment.

E/U: Price gapped lower to start the week and pierced the 1.3 level before retracing somewhat and then breaking this level again. I got stopped out of this short trade but will look to enter again. Price has some way to fall before reaching the next support level down around the 1.262 area.

I will look to SHORT the E/U on any new TS signal.  

I will look to LONG the E/U if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns and on any new TS LONG signals and if price rallies back above the 1.3 level.

E/J: The bearish Head and Shoulder pattern has evolved on the daily chart.

I would look to LONG the E/J on a new TS signal, a return to ‘risk on’ and if price rallies, breaks, closes and holds above the broken neck line and 105 area.

I might be tempted to SHORT the E/J on a new TS signal to SHORT and if ‘risk off’ remains.

A/U: This pair is still looking bearish. I’ve missed a few good entries on this pair recently. I had a signal late last week which I took in demo and you can see this on the charts. This pair seems to be dragged down of late by Gold. Gold has now broken down from a symmetrical triangle pattern and may be on for a big fall. This might take the Aussie pairs with it. The A/U has broken down from one triangle trend line but there is another just below current price.

I will look to SHORT the A/U on any new TS signal and if price breaks below the lower triangle trend line.

I will look to LONG the A/U on any new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price rallies and bounces off the lower triangle trend line.

A/J: This pair has broken down from a strong support level in the daily 200 EMA. Price is headed to a support level with a triangle trend line visible on the weekly and daily chart.

I will look to LONG the A/J on a clear TS signal and a break, close and hold back above the daily 200 EMA and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.

I won’t SHORT the A/J.

G/U: The G/U has held up pretty well given the ‘risk off’ sentiment during the week. I have re-drawn trend lines for this pair and now have it trading within a bullish ascending triangle pattern (monthly chart).

I would look to LONG the G/U on a new TS signal and if ‘risk on’ returns.

I would look to SHORT the G/U on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains.

USD/SGD: This pair is still trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern.

I will look to SHORT the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk on’ sentiment returns.    

 

I will look to LONG the USD/SGD on a clear TS signal and if ‘risk off’ sentiment remains and if the upper trend line/4hr 200 EMA zone is broken.  

   

Swissie: I could be tempted to trade this pair if ‘risk off’ remains and I get a new TS signal to LONG as it is also trading near a trend line break. The Swissie is butting up against the trend line of a bullish ascending triangle pattern.

I will look to LONG the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds above the upper triangle trend line.

I will look to SHORT the USD/CHF on a new TS signal, if ‘risk on’ returns and if price breaks, closes and holds below the bull triangle trend line.

U/J: I’m wary with this Yen pair. It is still trading in a down ward channel.

I would trade the U/J LONG on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds above the downward trend channel.

Loonie:  The Loonie is conforming, like text book, to the symmetrical triangle pattern.

I would look to LONG the USD/CAD on a new TS signal, if ‘risk off’ remains and if price breaks, closes and holds out of the upper triangle trend line.

Gold: Gold has broken down from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart. Continued falls in the price of Gold will most likely keep pulling the Aussie pairs down as they are highly correlated.