Wednesday 21/12/11 (6.30pm)
The 'risk on' approach is still going today. The4hr TS signals from earlier today have delivered lots of pips. The Long A/U is up 160 pips and still going. I closed out the E/G short at break-even as the trend petered out. I also put on a short on EUR/AUD and it is cruising along nicely too. I've put these on in my sim account only though as I've had a disrupted few weeks.
Wednesday 21/12/11 (12.30pm)
Well, it seems like my TradeSpotting system is doing better than I am! There was a good long trade overnight on the 30 min charts that I already discussed below. There has also been a signal to Long the A/U on the 4 hr charts. This signal came in as price broke above the daily pivot and psychological level of 1.00. This trade is currently up around 100 pips! (see chart). My waiting for more of a clear sign on the indices seems to have kept me out of a winning trade. That happens. Some times sticking to trading with the trend keeps you out of losing trades. Unfortunately, this is one time when it kept me out of a winning trade.
There have also been other TS signals for 'risk on' trades on 4 hr charts. Long E/U, E/J, A/J, NZD/USD and Short on USD/CHF and USD/SGD.
I missed all of these and was concerned about trading against the trend as mentioned. I did just read on FXNews that the current buying on the EUR may be due to some short covering out of Asia. Also, I'm busy here with tradesmen and kids home. Just about to take them to the beach. I will keep checking in on price action though.
Wednesday 21/12/11 (8.30am)
Well, I'm stuck home with some tradespeople here so thought I'd look at the charts some more. There was a beautiful TradeSpotting trend on the A/U last night using 30 minute charts. It started in the London session and continued into the US session. It yielded up to 150 pips! (see chart). I missed seeing this develop as I was out for dinner last night.
I'm not able to trade 30 min charts through my night time anyway. I mention it though as this will appeal to those of you who can! Also, I'm looking to trade with the main trend when using 4 hr charts but I don't have any set rules about this for trading on shorter time frames. One of the advantages of shorter time frame trading though is the need for smaller stops. I would certainly day trade on 3o min charts if I lived in a time zone that could trade some or all of the London and / or US session.
Wednesday 21/12/11 (6.30am)
There was a bit of a 'risk on' rally overnight following a bit of good data and news out of the US and Euro zone. The cynical out there are saying it was due to a short covering rally as people exit positions before the Christmas break.
The USDX pulled back to the upper level of its previous triangle breakout but is rallying up again as I type. The EURX did not rally as impressively as the USDX pulled back. (see charts). This makes me a bit suspect about any long term reversal of trend.
The EUR/GBP short trade is up about 20 pips. It seems a bit confused though with some long wicks on the candles indicating indecision. In a 'risk off' approach, the EUR and the GBP probably don't know which of them is meant to rally against the other!
I am still only looking to short USD at the moment though until I see clear signs on the indices that the previous 'risk off' trend is over.
Tuesday 20/12/11 (5pm)
Indices still ranging. The USDX is just hanging around the daily pivot level of 80.3. The EURX is hanging around its daily pivot level of 103. More 'pole dancing' stuff. I should have put hula skirts on them and taken them to Hawaii with me to give them some variation!
NB: I've just noticed a TS signal to SHORT the EUR/GBP. This is NOT a pair that I usually trade so I am only taking the trade in my simulated account; for interests sake. This trade is on my Admiral Platform and the 4hr candle has just closed.
Tuesday 20/12/11 (10am)
There was a bit of a further sell off on stocks and rally in the USD just before the close of trade today and since I last posted. I'm keeping an eye on potential shorts on the E/U and or A/U. The A/U has broken a 4hr upward trend line and is currently re-testing this. The E/U has yet to break its 4 hr trend line.
I'm also keen to see what happens with Silver. A look at this chart suggests that there could be an interesting move in store. (see chart). It is nearing the bottom trend line of a symmetrical triangle. As always, it could bounce up, break down or drift sideways. I'm not making a prediction, I'm just saying its worth keeping an eye on! A break done, close and hold below the trend line and the $28 level could spell a big move down on this metal.
Tuesday 20/12/11 (6.30am)
Nothing much has happened overnight. The indices have traded sideways. (see charts). No TS trends evident.
I'm thinking I should go away again....Murphy's law and all that, trends will appear if I'm not here! I actually think this sideways movement could go on until after Christmas. There is not a whole lot of 'red flag' news scheduled for this week but, that doesn't always mean the news horizon is free from potential market-moving announcements. See http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php for more details here.
Monday 19/12/11 (9pm)
Indices still bouncing around. No trend trades evident.
No TS trend trades just yet. The 5pm candle close looked like setting up for trends with the ADX on the indices and a number of pairs but my other TS indicators haven't confirmed a solid trend just yet. This may well change before the next candle close at 9pm though.
The major pairs could also just drift sideways this week; in a sort of brief reprieve for the benefit of the Christmas weekend. Time will tell. I'll keep checking the charts on the 4 hr close.
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