Monthly: Trend up. The month candle closed and was a very bullish candle.
Weekly: Trend up. A small green bullish engulfing candle but with a long upper shadow suggestion some indecision. This isn’t surprising as price had touched up near the strong resistance level of 81.
Daily: Trend up/flat. Overall, the trend was up but there was a fair bit of sideways movement during the last holiday week. Price is conforming within an ascending wedge pattern which is a bullish pattern.
4hr: Trend flat/up. Price closed the week at 80.25 after opening at around 80. Price had rallied up to near the key resistance level of 81 and then retreated a bit. It’s almost as if it is just drawing breathe before its next assault at this key level. The ADX and DMIs have moved back below the 20 level which is great news. This will make it easier to see any new trend that develops, if at all, next week.
Thoughts: I will watch to see how price trades within the narrow range between 80 -81. I’ll be watching the ADX/DMI indicators to gauge any new strong trend. The next critical area in the upper zone is the 81 level. If price moves, closes and holds above 81 then I still think there could be quite a rally and ascent from there. There does not seem to be too much blocking price from further upward movement once it’s past the 81 level.
I would need to see the USD move back down, close and hold below the daily trend line before I would consider a Short on the USD
As always, Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices. These events can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.
Monthly: Trend down. There was a large bearish candle for the month of December. Price has fallen and closed below the bottom trend line of the large symmetrical triangle dating back to May last year, 2010. This is a bearish sign.
Weekly: Trend down. A large bearish candle finished the month, the 4th such candle in a row. Price broke and closed below the strong psychological level of 103 during the week.
Daily: Trend down. Price finally broke below the 103 level after trading sideways there for quite some time .
4 hr: Trend down. Price broke below the bottom trend line of the symmetrical triangle. It re-tested this level during the week and has continued to fall since then.
Thoughts: I will watch to see if the bearish move on the EURX continues. A continued move down below the 103 level would have me looking to short the EUR in pairs. I will not look to Long the EUR though unless it breaks up, closes and holds above the 103 level OR until the ADX/+DMI trend up.
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