Indices for week 19/12/11

Indices for week 19/12/11 (6am) I've been awake since 2 am though!

I'm just back from Hawaii so this will be a relatively short update. Also, my computer either has a virus or is still on Hawaii time. That is, it's going very SLOWLY. It's going need to go the IT doctor.

After a week of much sideways action before I left, it looks like I missed a number of fantastic trend TradeSpotting trades last week. A case in point is a look at the trend on Gold for last week. It broke out and down from a symmetrical triangle and then went into a huge TradeSpotting short trade (see chart).

This missing of trades doesn't bother me as much as it used to. I've come to realise that there is always another day, a trading day that is, just around the corner. That corner might take a week to stroll around but, you eventually get around it. Thus, patience and discipline are required for this kind of trading! The thing is, I've now got very good 'walking shoes' and a fantastic 'sense of direction' with TradeSpotting in my trend trading!

USDX

Monthly: Up. USDX has broken up and out of a symmetrical triangle. A bullish sign.

Weekly: Trend up. A very bullish candle last week after one of indecision.

Daily: Trend up. Fridays candle was an indecision candle though.

4hr: Trend up. Might be a bullish flag/pennant forming.

Thoughts: I will watch and wait to see if there is a bullish breakout on the flag pattern on the 4 hr chart. There may be some retracement though after last week’s big moves. Price is currently under the daily pivot of 80.3. A break, close and hold above the daily pivot will have me to look to further Longs on the USD in pairs. I will not Short the USD at the moment though. If there is retracement, I would look for a reaction around the previous trend line breakout point of 79.5 area. This area is also weekly R2 pivot and daily S2 pivot levels and previous S/R. I would then look to Long the USD.

I would need to see the USD move back down, close and hold below the 79 level before I would consider a Short on the USD

Caution: As always, Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices. This can cause spikes and major moves in either direction so caution is needed. These events can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.

EURX

Monthly: Trend down. EURX has broken down and out of a symmetrical triangle for this month so far.

Weekly: Trend down.

Daily: Trend down. The last 2 days were Doji style indecision candles though.

4 hr: Trend down. It looks like the inverse of the USDX and that a bear flag could be forming on the EURX.

Thoughts: I will watch and wait to see if there is a bearish breakout on the flag pattern on the 4 hr chart. There may be some retracement though after last week’s big moves. A move down below 103 with a break, close and hold would have me looking to short the EUR in pairs. There may be some retracement even back up to the 104 level. I will not look to Long the EUR though unless it breaks up, closes and holds above the 104 level.