Friday, May 2, 2014

Trading Week: 2nd May: Quiet before NFP

Fri 2nd May (8.30 pm)
U/J: this has tried to give a new TS signal off my 7 pm candle BUT price is currently stuck in the daily Ichimoku Cloud:

U/J 4 hr:

U/J daily Cloud:

I consider it safest to wait until after NFP and to see if the U/J can break above the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the monthly 200 EMA.

Fri 2nd May (5.25 pm)
U/J: this looks like it is starting to wake up a bit with a new signal starting to build:

GBP/JPY: the triangle break looks to be starting here. GBP Construction PMI data is due out in an hour:

Fri 2nd May (3.45 pm)

I've been looking over the chart of this index today and adjusted the trend lines here. The reason for this is that I consider there are two main areas or levels to watch here.

The first level is the daily support trend line and this has not changed. 

The second level is the 'Triple Top', or rather now 'Quadruple Top', region. This is the trend line I have amended. I have drawn in a horizontal trend line at 1,900 and this is just above the previous high. This is still giving a bullish pattern but this is now a 'bullish ascending triangle' rather than the previous 'Bull Flag'. This is only a subtle difference but I consider the battle here will be fought at either one of these two levels:

Fri 2nd May (6.50 am)
US Stocks chopped sideways ahead of Friday's NFP. The indices have done much the same and Thursday's USDX and EURX candles both printed a 'Doji' style of candle:

USDX: Will this index put in a bounce again as it nears the bottom of its recent trading range? NFP might dictate movement here:

EURX: getting very congested at the apex of the triangle pattern:

EURX daily Cloud: this is still Cloud-bound and, thus, the Ichimoku Alignment for 'risk on' has not formed up as yet: 

S&P500: choppy as the 30 min chart shows:

S&P500 daily chart: This chart shows that there is still no new direction here as yet as there is no clear breakout, either up or down, from the triangle pattern:

S&P500 Ichimoku: I had missed noting the bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross BUT this is deemed a weak signal, as it formed within the Cloud AND is not really valid as the Kijun-sen (pink) line is flat denoting no clear trend. 

Forex: A bit of a move on the E/U and cable BUT, for the most, it has essentially just more consolidation. NFP might get things moving.

E/U: has paused up under the major triangle trend line:

E/J: chopping, albeit upwards, within the triangle: 

A/U: seems to have resumed its channel trading. There is AUD PPI data today that might get this moving: 

A/J: has basically chopped sideways all week:

G/U: a bit higher after recent GBP data BUT hanging just below the 'whole number' resistance of the 1.69 level. There is GBP Construction PMI data tonight, as well as NFP, and these might get this pair moving:

Kiwi: a bit higher and hanging out near the monthly pivot:

U/J: chopping along within the triangle and under the monthly 200 EMA:

EUR/AUD: chopping sideways:

GBP/AUD: this has not triggered a new TS signal BUT it has broken up, ever so slightly, through the channel trend line. This may suggest continuation here, based on the weekly chart patterns. Watch out near GBP data tonight:

G/A 4 hr: 

G/A weekly:

GBP/JPY: no new TS signal here yet either but price is pushing up at the triangle trend line and is currently above the monthly 200 EMA. Watch this near GBP data tonight as well:

AUD/NZD: this has continued to fall and is now back below the support of the 1.075 level. Watch near AUD PPI data later this morning. 

A/N 4 hr:

A/N daily:

Silver: still below the monthly support trend line:

Gold: has chopped lower but seems to be finding support:

Gold 4hr:

Gold daily: the inverse H&S looks less likely BUT is not voided just yet:

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