Monday, December 23, 2013

Trading Week 23/12/13

Sat 28th Dec (6.50 am) Queenstown, NZ (Sydney 4.50 am)
There were big spikes over night. The TS signals all benefited from this though. The maximum move for each signal, including spikes, is quoted below. I'm not able to load charts. I don't think I could live here!

E/U: 140
A/J: 90
Cable: 150
EUR/AUD: 180
GBP/AUD: 120

Aussie: this looks like it might just close back below the 0.89 for the week. This isn't a good sign...for the AUD that is!

Fri 27th Dec (8.50 pm) Queenstown, NZ (Sydney 6.50 pm)
Aussie: I am watching for any break and hold below the 0.89 by month end to support a possible bearish H&S on the weekly A/U chart. I am noting, though, a shorter term bullish inverse H&S on the 4 hr A/U chart:

This shorter term 4 hr pattern does not necessarily negate the longer term weekly pattern. The December monthly candle might give better guidance here. A bullish A/U, even if only short term, would help to support what I'm seeing on the AUD/NZD so...all is not lost!

Fri 27th Dec (8 pm) Queenstown, NZ (Sydney 6 pm)
Indices: The USD is slipping and the EURX is the moment that is.

E/U: I have received a TS signal to long the E/U off my Sydney 5 pm candle (ie 1 hr ago):

A/U: this earlier TS signal has closed off now for -30 pips. I did mention to be wary of this signal and to watch for any close below the 0.89 by week or month end:

The other TS signals are still open and positive; Cable, EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

This is the 'Land of the Slow Internet' though and not the 'Long White Cloud' so I'm having lots of trouble uploading images and blog posts.

Fri 27th Dec (9 am) Queenstown, NZ
U/J: I'm watching the Ichimoku Cloud on this pair still too. I had thought a test of the top of the monthly Cloud might evolve but this hasn't happened yet. It still may do though. The next hurdle for this pair would seem to be the 61.8% fib @ 105.6 or thereabouts. I'd expect some choppiness a minimum:

Fri 27th Dec (7.15 am) Queenstown, NZ:
There isn't a whole lot happening. Indices are bouncing sideways and the USDX hasn't strayed too far from the weekly 200 EMA. I had mentioned this level as being key for the USDX and a bit like a 'line in the sand':

I've had a few new signals overnight on my 1 am candle (Sydney 1 am)but they're not convincing and the low trading volumes makes me more wary. The internet is very slow here and it takes ages to load charts so I'm only posting the key ones.
A/J: TS signal might close off:
A/U : new TS but weak:
Cable: ditto
EUR/AUD: ditto
GBP/AUD: ditto

U/J: no new signal here but the technical Cup'n'Saucer pattern might be dominating here:

U/J monthly showing target for possible bullish Cup'n'Saucer pattern:

AUD/NZD: this is still drifting sideways:

We are out all day today and I'll update later but the low volumes mean it's probably safer to wait anyway. I would be more convinced of the Aussie H&S move if price holds below the 0.89 by the end of the week and, even, the end of the month...which isn't too far away now!

Thursday 26th Dec (7 pm) Queenstown:

This is the arrival pathway in to where I am at the moment! I am away for a week and won't be around to update as frequently. I'll do so when I can though.

AUD/NZD: this TS signal has closed now:

TS signals are building on the A/U and GBP/AUD.

Thursday 26th Dec (5.30 pm) Queenstown:

This is the arrival pathway in to where I am at the moment! I am away for a week and won't be around to update as frequently. I'll do so when I can though.

Indices: still just chopping sideways:
E/U: chopping sideways too:
E/J: trend line holding still:

A/U 4hr: gapped below the support of the 0.89:

A/U weekly H&S: I had hoped I might be wrong about this H&S but a hold below the 0.89 would support this bearish pattern:

A/J: TS signal still going:
Cable: trading above the trend line:
Kiwi daily:
U/J: had the flag break upwards BUT no TS signal yet:
AUD/NZD: TS signal might close off soon:
GBP/AUD: is trying to form a new TS signal:

Tue 24th Dec (11 pm)
I'm just back from the hospital...again...collapsed lung son! Such a great way to spend Christmas Eve!

Anyway...just checking...the A/J and AUD/NZD TS signals....thought they'd closed off....they still look open at the moment though...weird!

Tue 24th Dec (5.15 pm)
The TS signals have closed off:

AUD/NZD: I am staying in this though with my stop at b/e:

Tue 24th Dec (4 pm)
Stocks: I have updated my Stocks:Dec page with some stocks that have my interest as the month end approaches.

Tue 24th Dec (3 pm)
A/U: the Aussie is under some pressure and drifting back to the 0.89 level (the pink trend line):

Tue 24th Dec (10 am)
U/J: a TS signal is trying to form and a 'flag' breakout may be developing here too BUT check out those Bolllinger bands!

Tue 24th Dec (9 am)
No new TS signals.

Aussie: the Aussie is managing to hold it together above the 0.89 for the time being. It could survive this level for some weeks judging by the developing symmetry on the weekly chart. Last week's candle was a bullish reversal style candle so price might hold here or even rally a bit further. Market talk doesn't bode well for this pair though with all the bullish USD chatter and the 'talking down' of the AUD:

I see the 0.89 as the 'watershed' level for this pair.

AUD/NZD: This pair looks like it trying to make the long awaited reversal or even just a pull back. I did get a 4hr chart TS signal last week to go long on this pair and that signal is still open. I am a bit puzzled with a bearish view for the A/U but yet a bullish view for the AUD/NZD though. A weaker NZD would help solve this conundrum:

4 Hr:

Tue 24th Dec (6 am)
Indices: the USD is slipping but some reports say this is just profit taking:
E/U: higher but no TS signal:
E/J daily: trend line still holding for now:
A/U higher but no TS signal:
A/J: TS signal still going:
Kiwi: choppy:
Cable: there can't be much doubt that other traders have the same major monthly trend line in place!
U/J: another small scale 'Bull Flag' here?
A/N: TS signal still going but may close off soon:
GBP/AUD: ditto

Monday 23rd Dec (1.40 pm)
TS Signals: these are all still ticking along:

AUD/NZD: this might just be on for a long move back up:

E/U: no signal here but watching the trend line:

Aussie: higher but no TS signal: 

Cable: hugging on to that major monthly triangle trend line: 

U/J: not moving to far or fast. Watch for a possible test of the monthly 200 a minimum:

E/U: not doing too much yet either:
BTW: Asian stock markets are trading higher today in 'risk on' style.

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