Monday, December 9, 2013

Trading Week 09/12/13

Sat 14th Dec (7.50 am)
E/U: no short signal and a possible 'Bull Flag' BUT next week's FOMC will probably decide the fate of the E/U.

Sat 14th Dec (6.30 am)
A choppy session has seen some TS signals close off:
U/J: closed after 80:
E/J closed after 70:
GBP/AUD closed after 100:
Silver after 40:
Gold after 150:
Aussie still going though for now:
AUD/NZD: ditto

I am away at the moment and having trouble loading charts.

Fri 13th Dec (1.45 pm)
Aussie continued: Have just recalled that the 0.80 level on the Aussie (see weekly H&S target below) is also the region of the 61.8% pull back following the move from 2008-2011. 

E/U: looking more 'Bull Flag' like just now:

I'm off to Adelaide for the w/e. I'll update when I can.

Fri 13th Dec (11.10 am)
Aussie weekly: Oh dear! I was just looking at the Aussie on the WEEKLY chart. This also has a bit of a bearish 'H&S' look to it as well! The height of the 'Head' from the 'neck line' here is about 800 pips and is of a much larger scale. This technical pattern would suggest a bearish move down to near the 0.80 cents level:

Fri 13th Dec (10.55 am)
Aussie daily: had me thinking this again...

This bearish H&S pattern has almost completed now. I had been advising that the theory here suggested a move of around 440 pips, the height of the 'Head' from the 'neck line'. This bearish move would have brought price down from the 'neck line' to the region of the previous double bottom. Well, it's almost there!

Fri 13th Dec (10.40 am)
Aussie SPI:

Fri 13th Dec (10 am)
E/J: new signal here on my 9 am candle:

E/U: no short signal here though:

Cable: nothing here either:

Fri 13th Dec (8.30 am)
Cable: The Cable is struggling to break free from the major monthly chart triangle trend line. This is no surprise given the significance of this S/R level. I don't have any new trend signals here yet:
Cable 4 hr:

Cable monthly:

Fri 13th Dec (6 am)
Indices: Strong US retail sales renewed thoughts of an early QE taper and this has lifted the USD:
EURX: holding firm still just now though:
S&P500: choppy but holding for now:
A/U: signal up 140 pips!
EUR/AUD: up 170 pips:
AUD/NZD: signal up 70:
U/J gave a new signal off my 1 am candle"
GBP/AUD: ditto

Silver and Gold don't like 'taper talk' at all:
Silver: new signal off my 1 am candle: 
Gold: ditto

E/U: a TS signal trying to build here:

A/J daily:
Kiwi daily:

Thurs 12th Dec (9 pm)
E/U: this signal has now closed:

U/J: still holding up ok for now:

Thurs 12th Dec (6.30 pm)
USDX Trivia: trends do not go in straight lines forever. I note that a 61.8% fib pull back on the USDX 4 hr chart would bring it back up near the 4hr and weekly 200 EMA resistance levels:

Super Mario speaks soon!

Thurs 12th Dec (5.50 pm)
AUD/NZD: just noticed now that this gave a new TS signal off my last 5pm candle close:

Thurs 12th Dec (5.20 pm)
I wish my house was as quiet as these markets! There isn't too much happening just yet but there is an ECB speech and USD retail sales data out later tonight which might shake the FX markets a bit. Strong US retail sales data might send the USD up on taper thoughts. This could dampen the FX 'risk on' type moves we've seen so far with the E/U and Cable.

E/U: in a bit of a tight spot at the moment:

Cable: drifting lower but no momentum TS signal: 

U/J: non committal just for now:

S&P500 Stocks are well and truly spooked with taper thoughts. I don't have a sell signal though just yet. Also, the Elliott Wave indicator is suggesting a pull back to the daily support trend line which seems quite reasonable to me. Nothing like a bit of 'mean reversion' to spice things up though!

Thurs 12th Dec (4.20 pm)
Aussie SPI: interesting to see that this looks like it was bought into the close:

E/U: still lurking under 1.38. I've drawn in a minor daily trend line:

U/J: re-drawn the upper trend line here to reflect latest S/R:

The dog and I are hiding out in the front room again. Fifteen loud and excited Gen Z teens are partying out in the house. Having a house near the beach can have its downside!

Thurs 12th Dec (1 pm)
U/J: might be about to make another move?

E/U: refusing to roll over just yet. Waiting for 'Super Mario':  

A/U: the 0.90 seems to be calling: 
E/A: moving along:

FYI: the Nikkei is down but off its low.

Thurs 12th Dec (9.40 am)
EUR/AUD: heading the right way:

Thurs 12th Dec (9.20 am)
U/J: this is down but still not a lot of momentum here: 

E/U: might be having second thoughts at the 1.38 level:

A/J: I've adjusted the trend lines on the daily chart: 
Kiwi: ditto

Gold: this 4 hr signal has now closed:

S&P500: Stocks went 'risk off' overnight but I'm not seeing the same momentum with FX. Sure, the Aussie is down but that's not surprising given how our new Government is performing. FWIW: I'm seeing a bit of talk that this sell off was just some profit taking.

I had mentioned that we need to watch out for any big bearish weekly candles. We've got one forming up here on the S&P500 at the moment but we need to see how it closes after Friday. I don't have a sell signal on the daily chart just yet:

Thurs 12th Dec (6 am)
Indices: The USDX is still trading lower although the last 4 hr candle looks like it's trying to put in for a reversal:
EURX: still pushing higher:

USDX daily Cloud: looks set to have a clean close below the Cloud: 
E/U: still going:

A/U: new short off my 5 am candle:

Cable: new signal though: 
EUR/AUD: a new signal here on my 5 am candle too:

U/J: wobbly but no new signal to short:

Silver: lurking under resistance: 
Gold: ditto

S&P500: down so far but some buyers might be stepping in. I'm watching for any major sell off though:

Wed 11th Dec (9.20 pm)
No new TS signals.

Cable: This signal has closed off:

Wed 11th Dec (3.40 pm)
U/J: is pulling back today, along with the Nikkei, on so called 'profit taking'. No TS signal yet though:

Wed 11th Dec (1 pm)
Not much happening.

Wed 11th Dec (11.15 am)
USDX: this has closed right at the bottom edge of the daily Cloud. Price could just as easily get support from this and put in a bounce here:

There is news just out that there has been a US budget deal to avoid any January Government shutdown. This should help 'risk on' appetite BUT it may also boost the USD which could moderate further gains.

Wed 11th Dec (5.45 am)
Indices: the USD is still sliding and may close below the daily Cloud. If so, I'll be watching for any 'risk on' continuation:
USDX 4 hr
USDX daily Cloud:

E/U: TS signal has yielded 130 pips:

E/J: TS signal gave 250 but is now closing: 

Cable has given 30 but is struggling a bit:

U/J: having a re-think at the monthly 200 EMA. TS signal closed:

Gold: TS signal and inverse H&S break gave 250 pips:

Silver: no clean TS signal but the inverse H&S sure delivered:  

Aussie: no clean TS signal BUT there has been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the Ichimoku 4hr chart and a close above the Cloud. It must be getting a boost out of Gold:

A/J daily: look for any bullish continuation from the daily flag break:
Kiwi daily: ditto here: 

Swissie weekly: now this is trading at significant low and a weekly support trend line. Worth watching!

EUR/AUD: The 1.50 level might be under a bit of pressure:

Tuesday 10th Dec (6 pm)
Silver and Gold: no TS signal on Silver yet BUT Gold gave one off my 5 pm candle and has now made neck line breakout:

Tuesday 10th Dec (5 pm)
Chinese data was fairly tame. No real reaction yet.

Stocks: Dec: I have posted a new page of stocks for Dec.

Tuesday 10th Dec (3 pm)
A/J: from my w/e write up: the daily chart flag pattern trend line is being tested:
Kiwi: ditto here too:

Watching out for reaction to the Chinese data.

Tuesday 10th Dec (2.40 pm)
Silver and Gold:no new TS signal here just yet even after my 1 pm candle close.

Index Ichimoku Alignment: The USDX is continuing to slide and this is bring the index down much closer to the bottom edge of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Any close and hold below the daily Cloud would place the EURX and USDX into a 'risk on' alignment across the 4hr and daily chart time frame:

Ichimoku 'risk on' alignment often, but not always, results in periods of good trending markets and so I'm watching out for this phenomenon. There has been some 'risk on' movement evident with a number of pairs though already. 

There is more Chinese data due out at 4.30 pm and this may impact trends here.

Tuesday 10th Dec (10.40 am)
Next update: won't be until after 2 pm.

Tuesday 10th Dec (9.20 am)
Silver and Gold: Silver has broken the possible inverse H&S neck line but has not given a new TS signal just yet. I'll check again at the next 4 hr candle at 1 pm. 

Not much else happening.

I'll spend some time later checking over stocks.

Tuesday 10th Dec (7 am)
Indices: There is chatter about QE tapering yet the USD continues to slide and the EURX holds its highs:

S&P500: stocks chopping a bit higher as they try to acclimatise to the 'above 1,800' zone:

The 3 open TS signals from last week are ticking along and there is one new signa;:
E/U: up 70
E/J: 210

U/J: 50 and has had a 4 hr close above the monthly 200 EMA! 

Cable: this has given a flag breakout and a new TS signal. Yes I do see a possible 'double top' though too: 

There are interesting moves on Silver and Gold too:

Silver: the bullish 'inverse H&S' might be evolving and a TS signal is building:

Gold: similar moves on Gold too: 

This is classic 'risk on' style movement at the moment. 'QE taper' chatter might build and this might impact the current momentum so traders need to remain vigilant. Also, there is GBP red flag news later tonight and, also, ECB 'Super Mario' will be speaking. He can produce big moves in the Euro so care is needed around that.

Monday 9th Dec (9.30 pm) 
Ichimoku 'Risk On' alignment looming....again?
The EURX and USDX index charts are getting close to being aligned for 'risk on' momentum. Often, but not always, periods of alignment result in strong trending markets.

Alignment occurs when the EURX is trading above the Cloud on the 4 hr and daily charts. We have that situation at the moment:

We also need the USDX to trade below the Cloud on the 4hr and daily charts. We have one of those at the moment; the 4hr chart. Price doesn't have to drift too much lower to end up below the daily Cloud though!

I am on the lookout for any such development and will keep you posted. 

Monday 9th Dec (9.10 pm) 
Indices: the USDX is still sliding...for the moment
EURX: still looking bullish: 

The 3 open TS signals are still ticking along:
E/U has given 60:
E/J 180

U/J just 30 as it still lurks under major resistance of the monthly 200 EMA: 

Cable: no TS signal here just yet but one looks to be building AND there seems to be a channel break building too. Price is still right near the major triangle trend line: 

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