Monday, December 2, 2013

Trading Week 02/12/13

Sat 7th Dec (6 am)
E/U: has given 30 pips

E/J: ended up giving 120 pips and finally broke the 140 and 61.8% fib level:

EUR/AUD: gave a few pip[s but has now closed off:

U/J: that 'Bull Flag' evolved and I got a new TS signal off my 4 am candle:

USDX: this is still stuck in the daily Cloud.

I do note during these periods that many US based pairs are choppy and that cross pairs often fare better. This weeks TS signals support this point.

I also note, though, that 30 min trading during the London and US session is often more productive. Last night gave more evidence to support this point. Note the trend off the E/J starting from yesterday's London session:

I'm a scientist, at heart, and I do love a good, evidence based, scientific pattern!

Fri 6th Dec (9.15 pm)
E/J: I've had a new signal after my 9 pm candle but I'd be wary ahead of NFP:

Fri 6th Dec (5 pm)
A/J: this signal has closed off now:
U/J: looking a bit bullish:

E/U: this has made a bullish T/K cross above the Cloud!

Fri 6th Dec (4.50 pm)

An interesting video from Dean Malone looking at some of the major pairs. I'm on a similar page to him but had been hoping for deeper pull backs.

Fri 6th Dec (2.30 pm)
Not a whole lot happening on this NFP Friday. Lucky the cricket is good!

U/J: I had mentioned in my w/e write up that I was thinking a pull back to the 100 level might be in order. We haven't got that yet. Price looks to be forming up into a bit of a Bull Flag pattern though!

Nikkei: I note this index is up today!

Fri 6th Dec (11 am)
FYI: My S&P500 long signal closed off. This was a gain of 1782 to 1795.

Fri 6th Dec (9.30 am)
E/U: I've had a new TS signal here and a close above the 1.365 BUT it's NFP later so I'll be waiting until next week now.

A/J: this has made a bearish daily candle close below the daily 200 EMA. This support had held for much of the last two months but has now been broken. Cautious traders might wait to see how this pair closes for the week but a close and hold below this S/R level for the week would suggest a possible target back down at the 0.89 level.

U/J is down but  I don't have a TS signal. I did mention in my w/e write up that this pair might test the 100 level before any possible bullish continuation. The 100 level is in the region of the top edge of the monthly Cloud that has only recently been broken; the first such bullish close above the monthly Cloud since 2007!

Fri 6th Dec (7.50 am)
USDX: this looks like it might close for the day below the weekly 200 EMA. This support has held price for the whole of the last month. The test will be to see where this closes for the week though, especially after NFP later today. Remember though that we had a bearish 'Dark Cloud Cover' pattern on the weekly USDX confirmed a week ago:

Fri 6th Dec (6.55 am)
Indices: the USDX has fallen below the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX has burst up and out of the daily Ichimoku Cloud:
GBP/AUD: closed for a 100 pip loss
AUD/NZD: closed for a max of 120 pips:
 EUR/AUD: flat
A/J: max of 70 so far

E/U:There are no new signals just yet but the E/U is trying to form one and has had a close above the key 1.365 level:

U/J: pulling back with stocks:

NFP tonight so might be best to wait until after that.

Thurs 5th Dec (9.20 pm)
USDX: yet another bounce!

Both EURX and USDX indices still Cloud bound!

No new TS signals.  Lots of news later tonight though!

Thurs 5th Dec (6.30 pm)
USDX: this index has been well supported by the weekly 200 EMA over recent weeks but this support is being tested as I type.

Continued bearish movement would help Gold and Silver.

Thurs 5th Dec (6 pm)
Nikkei: The Nikkei has closed lower again today but is still above the 15,000 key S/R level.....for now at least. The 15,000 level is a major psychological level and a possible inflection point for a new trend. The trend line that was broken recently had been in play for over 20 years! I would have expected this level to be tested before any possible continuation higher.

BTW: My chart has not got today's action:

Thurs 5th Dec (5 pm)
YHOO: many of you will recall how I was stalking YHOO well before the latest $20 triangle breakout. Price has almost doubled since then!

This stock is approaching another key level now at up around the $40 mark. This is a major S/R level for the stock and I'll be watching closely again to see how price reacts around this price point. A break, close and hold above $40 would be rather bullish and it is worth noting that the stock has history well above $100:

Thurs 5th Dec (4 pm)
FWIW: AAPL: I have had a 'BUY' signal here:

Thurs 5th Dec (3.35 pm)
AUD/NZD: Dean Malone has put out an interesting video on the AUD/NZD.  He's got different fib points to me but that's ok.

A/U: The H&S pattern has now given up to 290 pips!

Thurs 5th Dec (7.45 am)
I'm out for much of today at my son's End of Year Speech Day celebrations.

I'll be the cranky one, sitting there, gnashing my teeth though. My HPQ Call option didn't fill and this is now up 25% .....for just one day of trading. Ditto for some Puts as well. Sleeping is proving to be expensive.

Thurs 5th Dec (6.15 am)
Indices: Both of these are going nowhere fast. If I could sing...this is what I'd sing to them to try and motivate them out of their respective comfort zones!

USDX: still stuck in the daily Cloud:
EURX: ditto!

Not much is going to happen whilst these two are stuck in the Cloud. Maybe the huge batch of high impact news over the next two days will achieve this!

TS Signals: these are all ok. The metals have closed off though.

A/J: a close below the daily 200 EMA would signal a possible slide to the 0.89:

EUR/AUD: my order at 1.5 wasn't filled overnight and I'm not happy!

AUD/NZD: limping along:

GBP/AUD: in limbo ahead of GBP rates news:
Silver: closed off
Gold: ditto:

E/U: choppy: rates data for EUR later

U/J: drifting down BUT no TS signal here:

Cable: choppy ahead of GBP rates.

There is a lot of news over the next two days and traders need to be VERY cautious. EUR and GBP interest rates and US NFP as well.

Wed 4th Dec (9 pm): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
Indices: Both the EURX and USDX are still stuck in their daily Cloud. Thus, the cross pairs are proving better value.

GBP/AUD: new TS signal:
EUR/AUD: ditto

AUD/JPY: a new signal here too. A close below the daily 200 EMA will likely send price to the 0.89 level!

AUD/NZD: still going strong

A/U: the H&S has given up to 270 pips so far:

Wed 4th Dec (6 pm): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
USDX: Yet another bounce off the weekly 200 EMA!

New TS signals trying to form up on the GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD.

Wed 4th Dec (2.15 pm): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
U/J: I wrote about the U/J on the w/e and how it had made the first bullish close above the monthly Ichimoku Cloud since 2007:

I think the top edge of the Cloud might be tested before there is any significant bullish follow through. The top edge of the Cloud is back down near the 100 level. I note, also, how the 100 level is around the location of the 61.8% fib pullback of the latest bull move on this pair....for added confluence!

The Nikkei is down today and, as mentioned over the w/e, I would expect the 15,000 to be tested there!

Wed 4th Dec (1.40 pm): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
AUD pairs: GDP was worse than expected and hence the AUD has gone back into slide mode.

A/U daily: That H&S is still delivering:
No TS signal yet on the 4hr though:
AUD/NZD: TS signal dragging along:

EUR/AUD: watching for a possible 'double top' or break thereof. No TS signal here yet either.
GBP/AUD: mightn't get that pull back:

A/J daily: now, if price breaks through the daily 200 EMA and makes a daily close below this recent S/R level, then, I think the next stop will be 0.89:
A/J 4hr:

Wed 4th Dec (10.30 am): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
Cable: the Cable is struggling to keep going as it is trading at/under a significant S/R level of the monthly chart triangle trend line and the 38.2% fib retrace level of the major down move (2007-2009).

It is actually shaping up with a bit of a bearish 'double top' look to it on the 4hr chart:

Cable &Ichimoku: The Cable is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr, daily and weekly time frames but is only now working its way up through the monthly Cloud. It also looks like it might be trying to form a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the monthly chart. There are bullish crosses in play already on the 4hr, daily and weekly charts.

I have just noted that last weeks candle close was the highest for both this year AND last year. No wonder it's taking a bit of a break! I'd love a pull back here though!

Wed 4th Dec (9 am): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!

No new TS signals. Not surprising given the state of the Indices and their daily Ichimoku Clouds.

Wed 4th Dec (5.50 am): Don't expect clear sailing too soon!
Indices: Both indices are stuck in their daily Cloud and this, in the past, has resulted in choppy and directionless markets for longer term trading (4hrs and over):

USDX: is back down near the weekly 200 EMA:
EURX: still above the monthly 200 EMA

S&P500: these market conditions often bring better trading opportunities off the 30 min charts. This was the case with the S&P500:

My daily chart 'long' signal from back in early Oct looks set to close off today though. I'd like a pull back to the 1,685 please. There just doesn't seem to be enough bad news around at the moment though and many have a 'Christmas Rally' idea in their heads. I suspect the positive Spanish employment data has thrown a bit of a spanner in the works here. I see the WSJ is claiming the markets need 'a breather'. I hope they can talk it down all the way to 1,685!

E/U 30 min: some pips were there on the 30 min E/U chart too for the London and US session:

This pattern of choppy 4 hr but better 30 min chart trading, whilst frustrating on one hand, is reassuring on the other!

TS signals:
EUR/GBP: closed off for -20
AUD/NZD: has given up to 80
Gold: flat
Silver: up a little

There are no other new signals just yet but the Kiwi and E/U are trying to form one:

The E/J, Cable and GBP/AUD look like they might be just marking time before they head off upwards again:

Cable: this looks like it might close back above the major S/R triangle trend line.

The U/J is pulling back as stocks and the USD pull back:

The Aussie is hanging on to the safety of the 0.91 level. More data here today:

Tuesday 3rd Dec (9 pm)
E/J and U/J look to have closed off now:

Tuesday 3rd Dec (6 pm)
Indices and Ichimoku: There is a real struggle going on here. Both indices are stuck in the edge of their daily Clouds so expect choppiness on these pairs:
USDX daily:
EURX daily:

USDX 4hr : there has been a new bullish cross here albeit a weak signal:

EURX 4hr: there has been a new bearish cross here albeit a weak signal:

The cross pairs might be better...GBP/AUD and the likes...

Tuesday 3rd Dec (5 pm)
EUR/AUD: this TS signal closed off for a loss:

Tuesday 3rd Dec (1.50 pm)
Aussie Stocks: I have updated my Aussie Stocks page with three stocks that look a bit vulnerable at the moment.

I'm waiting on AUD rates news.

Tuesday 3rd Dec (9 am)
Cable: The Cable has closed the day with a bearish 'shooting star' style candle and, also, below the major triangle trend line. I'm hoping this might set up for a bit of a pull back with this pair:

No other new TS signals.

Tuesday 3rd Dec (7 am)
Indices: the USDX has continued its bounce but the EURX is trying to scramble back above the key S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA as well:

Ichimokou charts:  the sideways choppiness has resulted in a Cloud shift where the USD looks set to drift up and out of its daily Cloud whereas the EURX risks falling back in its daily Cloud:

S&P500: stocks were choppy:

E/J: still going at 120. It could be forming up into a bearish 'double top' though as it struggles under the 140 S/R level:

U/J: ditto and at 130. This might stall here as it hits up against the monthly 200 EMA S/R level:

Cable: signal closed off at my 5 am candle after 150 pips. I'm watching to see where the daily Cable candle closes. A close back within the triangle pattern could signal a pause or some reversal potential before any potential breakout:

EUR/AUD: stalling:
EUR/GBP: ditto

Silver: a new TS signal off my 5 am candle
Gold: ditto

AUD/NZD: a new signal but from my 1 am candle:

Monday 2nd Dec (9 pm)
Indices: the USDX is bouncing off the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX is pulling back a bit:

Gold: is struggling still with this USD strength

E/J: still going
Cable: ditto
U/J: ditto

EUR/GBP: the new TS signal is delivering:

EUR/AUD: a new TS signal on my 9 pm candle:

E/U: no signal here though:

Monday 2nd Dec (5 pm)
No new TS signals just yet. E/A and A/U trying but it might take another candle to lift momentum.

Monday 2nd Dec (2 pm)
EUR/GBP: This isn't a pair I trade but I've had a new TS signal off the latest 4 hr candle here at 1 pm. This fits in with the bearish H&S set up on the daily chart:

EUR/AUD: trying to form a new signal:
AUD/USD: ditto

Cable: has gone on to make the major triangle break and to give up to 150 pips now!

Cable Daily Ichimoku:

Monday 2nd Dec (10.25 am)
The 3 TS signals are still open:
E/J: 120
Cable: 100
U/J: 80

My first 4 hr candle update will be at 1 pm but I am out for a few hours and will update when I get back.

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