Monday, November 19, 2012

Trading Week 19/11/12

Saturday 24th (5am) 255 pips from the last 2 TS Forex signals + SPY 67% intra day trade. TS just keeps giving! 
I've had some comfort at least, finally, from my trading during this sad time. My trading gave me great comfort whilst I was sick last year and it seems to be offering me similar support again now.

I've finally struck a decent trade! I'm up around 120 on my TS E/U signal

The E/U signal has given up to 135 pips!

The Swissie has yielded up to 110 pips

The USDX has finally tumbled

That Head and Shoulder pattern looks to be unfolding

The EURX has closed above my bullish 'inverse H&S' neck line:

The S&P500 also yielded a great 144 move and a possible 67% ROIC SPY trade today:

This TS signal came when the S&P500 was at $1392. Thus, I would have bought the $139 Nov Call Option.

This Option has increased by $1.05 to finish at $2.60. The Option opened at $1.55. The ROIC for this possible SPY trade was 67%
ROIC =($1.05/ $1.55) x 100 = 67%

That isn't all! Those bullish 'Cup and Handle' Patterns have delivered on the metals too!

Silver up now 110 pips!
 Gold is up 220 pips.

I missed this move and 4hr signal on the Aussie yesterday as we were driving. My husband and I were having a discussion about this pair in light of Morgan & Stanley's bearish comments. I'm no economist, for sure, but from a technical view point, this pair has looked bullish for ages!

That blasted G/U trade that whipped me around at the beginning of the week has now given up to 140 pips!

The A/J is now up 220 pips from the 84 level broken earlier this week:

The E/J signal keeps going too!

That's all for now. I'll post my w/e reviews a bit later, maybe even on Monday.

Friday 23rd (9.30am)
I will not be updating this blog for the next few days. I am travelling interstate due to the death of my Father. 

Friday 23rd (7am)
The USDX continues to slide and the EURX is up and sitting just under the neck line of my bullish inverse H&S pattern:

The USDX weekly bearish 'H&S' pattern is still printing:

The complementary bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern on the EURX is still printing at the moment too:

The E/U LONG signal is up but I'd have stop to entry here. It was up 50 pips at one point:

Ditto for the Swissie. It was up 45 points at one point:

The E/U and Swissie trades may end up chopping around and being further examples of short lived 4hr trend trades during Cloud divergence. That is why I'd have stops to entry ASAP.

The E/J is taking a breather

So too is the A/J

We have the situation where the Cloud charts are starting to set up for optimum 'risk on' conditions. I know what you're thinking........ I see, I can't believe it BUT I'll trade it!

Thursday 22nd (9.40 pm)
The EURX seems to be still marching upwards and on to my inverse H&S neckline. The USDX continues to look a bit weak:

The E/U is still looking strong 

The Swissie too 

The E/J has now moved 420 pips from the missed signal last week:

The A/J has now moved 180 pips this week; from the key 84 level:

Thursday 22nd (5.40 pm)
Not much happening at the moment. Might continue to be quiet given the US holiday for Thanksgiving. Some EU data is due out later plus there is the EU summit meeting ongoing so these might shift the Euro pairs a bit.

Thursday 22nd (3 pm)
The USDX continues to struggle, even with all the potentially bad news scenarios! The EURX keeps marching upwards. It is getting up near to my bullish inverse H&S neck line!

I've had a TS signal to LONG the E/U but it might be best to wait to clear the daily 200 EMA:

I've had a corresponding signal to short the Swissie BUT, of the two, I think the E/U looks better:

The G/U has slowed a bit again with the 4hr 200 EMA in its way:

Thursday 22nd (9.30 am)
No new TS signals just yet.

G/U: this is one pair that makes me rather cranky! I correctly spotted the bullish wedge breakout BUT got stopped out at entry earlier in the week when the trade bounced sideways for a few days. It has, slowly but surely, continued on without me and is now up around 45 pips! I'm having one of those weeks!

Thursday 22nd (7 am)
This chart kind of sums up recent trading but, if you can't work it out for your self then, it was choppy:

The USDX continues to chop around sideways but the EURX has clawed its way back above the monthly pivot:

My main trading frustration is due to those Yen pairs, the E/J and the A/J. The E/J is now up 350 pips after last week's signal and the A/J is up 140 pips from the key 84 level area I mentioned over the w/e:

The E/U is up again on the 4hr but I don't have a TS signal just yet. It has some big roads blocks in its path though; the 4hr and the daily 200 EMA:

The Swissie has now also closed below the daily 200 EMA and has broken the weekly support trend line. It looks quite bearish: 

Silver looks to be unfolding into the 'Cup and Handle' pattern:

Gold is taking just a bit longer to start its 'Cup and Handle' breakout move. It might be waiting for more of a roll over with the USD:

S&P500: The S&P500 was choppy but gave a TS signal, of sorts, but is only up a little bit:

The daily chart of the S&P500 shows how the index is still trading within a trading channel. The upper boundary of this channel coincides with the 4hr 200 EMA and the key psychological 1400 level. This will be a critical level to watch:

The weekly chart of the S&P500 is interesting too. Note how the current flag pattern bears a lot of similarity to the pattern seen last May/June. One wonders, therefore, whether we might see another similar bull run from a breakout of the current channel????

Wednesday 21st (7 pm)
FYI: No new TS signals anywhere; 'risk on' OR 'risk off'. 

Wednesday 21st (6.30 pm)
The failed Euro zone /IMF meeting sent currencies sharply back into 'risk off'. It has been a very choppy week but this was not unexpected. The Index Cloud charts suggested that this might be the case.

I'm going to wait until next week now given that the US Thanksgiving break will start to impact on trading volume.

Wednesday 21st (3.15 pm)
We've just seen a massive swing back to 'risk off'. It seems failed Euro zone talks may be the cause.

Wednesday 21st (9.30 am)
Yen frustration!
I'd mentioned key levels on the E/J and A/J in posts over the w/e. The E/J had looked set to break a key resistance level in the monthly bear trend line. Price has broken this level and now moved up about 70 pips from the 104 level. All of this without a new TS signal though so, I left it! More fool me:

The A/J has also moved on about 80 pips from the key 84 level I mentioned. This move was also without a new TS signal so, again, I left it: 

The EURX continues to hold above the monthly pivot area:

The bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern might unfold. I'll be looking for a break of a neck line area:

The USDX looks like it could still printing a bearish 'H&S' pattern:

The signal on the EUR/AUD has not formed yet.

Wednesday 21st (6am)
It continues to be very choppy across all markets. The USDX is a prime example of this:

The EURX has actually closed above the monthly pivot but any 'risk on' momentum seems to have been put of by the dour comments from US Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke.

There have been mixed results across the remaining TS signals:
~Still going: E/U 40, G/U 15, Silver 15, NZD/USD 10 (after being at 55) E/J 250 (from last week)
~Stopped out o'nite at entry: A/U, Loonie and Gold

There is still significant divergence across the Cloud charts for the indices so I have very low expectations of any 4hr signals at the moment. 

Stocks were also choppy with no TS signal on the 30 min S&P500:

The EUR/AUD is setting up to give a TS signal but I think I'd almost wait until it got past the 4hr 200 EMA. This might be a 'double top' if not navigated:

Both Gold and the Aussie are down and I'm not quite sure why. I can't see why the Euro would be up against the Aussie but, like I say, trade what you see and not what you think. So, I'll take the EUR/AUD trade IF I see a TS signal form here AND if it gets up over the 4hr 200 EMA!

Tuesday 20 (9.30 pm) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
No real clues yet as to which way things will move. The S&P500 isn't giving away any clues:

The EURX is having another go at the monthly pivot just now though. It's going to have to make or break this level soon. It may do so in the US session tonight. That would be my luck! A clean break of this level might open a flood gate for 'risk on'

Tuesday 20 (8 pm) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
We are seeing some choppiness on the indices as key levels are approached. I am seeing the usual choppiness on the currency 4 hr charts again today. Cloud divergence suggested that this might be the case. 

I will be on the lookout for better 30 min chart trading from the US session.

Tuesday 20 (5.30pm) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The monthly pivot is proving to be a challenge for the EURX:

I would want to see this level breached before being confident that any 'risk on' signals will continue to move. I'd have stops to entry if in any of them. The Swissie and the USD/SGD are down a bit and I'd be out of these for about a small loss (Swissie -15, USD/SGD -10). All the rest are still positive.

Tuesday 20 (2.30pm) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The EURX is making another push up at the resistance level of the monthly pivot and daily 200 EMA. This level needs to be broken otherwise I suspect it will help form a bearish 'double top':

TS Signal Re-cap: I've got 'risk off' signals across many pairs, metals and indices:
I've had TS signals on: G/U, NZD/USD, E/U, A/U, Loonie, Swissie, Gold, Silver and also the USD/SGD (the latter was overlooked earlier). The E/J is still going from last week as is the A/J. All signals are now in positive territory!

4 hr trading is likely to continue to be volatile though whilst we still have Cloud divergence. I am expecting that, as per usual, there might be good trades during the US session from the 30 min charts.
Tuesday 20 (1pm) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
I've been stopped out, at entry, from my G/U. It will probably take off now! I'm not the only one seeing choppy action on this pair though:

Not a whole lot has changed from earlier; just after the Moody's blip. Gold and Silver seem to be keeping up with their moves. The A/U is holding above thee 1.04 level too. All TS signals, except the G/U and Swissie, are still in profit. I'd have stops to entry on any trade ASAP still though. European markets might react badly to the Moody's news when they come on line later today.

Tuesday 20 10.45 am) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The A/U and G/U are holding up for now. 

Gold: Gold is holding above its breakout trend line but, if I was trading it, I'd wait for a close above the monthly pivot for added confidence & confluence:

Tuesday 20 (9.30 am) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The Euro pairs are getting hit due to the Moody's downgrade of France. The E/U is back to entry now and I'd be waiting to see how other pairs fare before trading further.

Tuesday 20 (9 am) S&P500 intra day trade gives possible 70% ROIC!
The S&P500 ended up yielding a maximum of 160 pips overnight. There was a TS signal to 'LONG" just before the US session. This signal came through when the index was at $1368.17:

Thus, if I was able to trade this, I would have bought the $137 Nov Call Option. This Option opened at $1.56 and closed up $1.11 to finish at $2.67: 

This represents a return on invested capital of around 70%!
ROIC= ($1.11/$1.56) x 100 = 71%

This trade came with the added confluence that price had bounced of the bottom trend line from the daily chart trading channel:

Both Gold and Silver have closed up and out of their 'handle' patterns on their trading channels for the Cup and Handle pattern. This is on top of the 4hr TS 'LONG' signals both have given:

The USDX is having another push back up as I write. Moody's has just downgraded France and I suspect that this may be the cause. Fundamental news events like this can always undermine technical trading signals. Thus, these 4 hr TS signals may not hold.

Tuesday 20 (8.20 am)
Forgot to note earlier that there were 4hr TS signals on Gold and Silver as well. These signals came with the confluence of a trend line break as well. Most of the 4hr TS signals kicked in on my 1 am candle:

Tuesday 20 (7 am)
The USDX has continued to roll and has broken down from its trading channel:

The EURX has marched up to the key resistance level of the monthly pivot and daily 200 EMA. This level will be a key test for the EURX. It might mark a 'double top' for the index:

It has been a bit frustrating for me as I had two TS signals yesterday, the G/U and NZD/USD. The G/U, that I took, has gone nowhere but the NZD/USD has moved 40 pips:

I have had new signals overnight, as I thought might happen, on a number of pairs: E/U, A/U, Loonie and Swissie. I would want to see the EURX break the monthly pivot though beofre chasing these trades now:


Of significant note is that Gold and Silver look to have broken out from their 'handle' patterns. I will need to check the daily candle close here later though to confirm:

I had also suspected that there would be great trades from the 30 min charts and there were a few:
S&P500 30 min: 130 pips
Gold 30 min 120 pips
Silver 30 min 55 pips

A/J and E/J: Both of these pairs have continued to move up past key levels that I mentioned over the w/e. Unfortunately, neither of these moves produced new TS signals. The E/J is a continuation TS signal from last week though:

E/J: now up 190 pips!

My frustration is moderated though somewhat by the satisfaction I have in understanding the current market conditions and knowing what to expect. I had expected trends to most likely kick in during the US session given the Ichimoku Indices divergence I had seen. This has been, and continues to be, the case I see.

Monday 19th (9 pm)
The G/U is down about 10 pips and the signal is fading. I have a small stop just below the weekly pivot but I'm not too confident with this trade. I almost have a TS signal on the A/U and I have one on the NZD/USD. I don't have any other new TS signals but this does not surprise me. I think we might be in for a repeat of the typical pattern I see when we have Cloud divergence.  That is, choppy and few signals on the 4hr charts but signals on the 30 min charts during the US session. Time will tell.

Monday 19th (5 pm)
The only new 4hr TS signal that I have is the G/U from the earlier 1pm candle close. The E/J signal is still valid from last week which is a problem for me. I like the look of this pair, especially if it closes and holds above the 104 level, but it does not seem likely that I will get a new TS signal to do so:

I'm in on the G/U though.

Monday 19th (2.30 pm)
'Risk on' has held throughout the Asian session so far. The USDX is looking like it might roll over and the EURX has sort of filled its gap higher open:

The only real TS signal I have though so far is on the G/U. This had the confluence of a trend line break out of a bullish descending wedge pattern and a bounce off the daily 200 EMA  support level:

Others that are close to forming TS signals include the E/U, A/U, A/J and NZD/USD. The E/J is actually still going from last week!

Gold and Silver: Both of these are pushing up to the upper trend line of the 'handle' in their cup and handle patterns:

I think a lot of caution is needed this week though with possibly much thinner trading due to the shorter trading Thanksgiving week. Also, I'm conscious that we are setting up for 'risk on' with the EURX index on its Cloud charts but also for 'risk off' possibilities on the USDX Cloud charts! Divergence = Be Careful!

Monday 19th (11 am)
My index charts haven't opened yet but there seems to be 'risk on' across many of the pairs. I expect some TS 4hr signals to form up by my 1pm candle close. I'm at Doctor appointments then and won't update until after that.

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