Monday, November 12, 2012

Trading Week 12/11/12

Saturday 17th (6am)
It has been a session of rather choppy trade as Fiscal Cliff fears eased slightly amid positive US budget talks. The USDX has bounced around:

So too has the EURX but I got the flag pattern a wrong; it is conforming to more of a bullish descending broadening wedge than just the channel I had earlier:

Stocks bounced and there were no 30 min S&P500 trades:

The S&P500 is still within its daily chart trading channel though:

The A/U has held above the daily 200 and monthly pivot as well:

So, we're still none the wiser as to which way market momentum is headed just now!

Friday 16th (10.20 pm)
The EURX is down but has not closed below the trading channel yet. There is still another 30 min until the 4hr candle closes here but I'm dog tired!:

The A/U has yet to close below the daily 200 EMA and monthly pivot as well:

No new TS signals anywhere else. I'm wondering if we will get more action later, during the US session, on the 30 min charts. That has been the norm of late!

No signal though, so far, on the S&P500 either:

Friday 16th (5.20 pm)
A/U: If 'risk off' takes hold then I'm looking at getting short the A/U if it closes again below the daily 200 EMA and monthly pivot.

I'm a conscious here though that the S&P500 and Dow are sitting on their weekly bull support trend lines. They could possibly bounce back up from here, even if only short term, and that might drag the A/U up with them. Lots of instruments are at significant levels.

Friday 16th (4.45 pm)
I've just been having a bit more of a look at Gold. It seems, to me, like it might be setting up into a 'cup and handle' pattern on the weekly chart:

I've included a technical image of a 'cup and handle' pattern to show what I mean here. The idea is to look for a breakout from the 'handle' and the target is, very roughly, equal to the depth of the cup: 

This would suggest a possible target on Gold of about 2000 pips or equal to $200. You need to watch for a breakout from the handle. Look to the daily chart for this:

BTW: there is a similar pattern on Silver!

Friday 16th (4.15 pm)
The USDX is still trading fairly flat:

It is a bit hard to tell whether the EURX is rolling over or simply forming a bull flag. I've expanded to the hourly chart and put trend lines in to help determine the breakout direction:

Gold is down BUT I don't have a TS signal to sell here just yet:

USD/SGD: I'm not sure what got this pair excited:

Friday 16th (12 noon)
It seems like it is do or die time for US stocks. Both the S&P500 and Dow are sitting just above their weekly bull support trend lines:
S&P500 weekly
S&P500 daily
Dow weekly
Dow daily

Friday 16th (11.30 am)
I'm wondering if we are just starting to see the USDX start to roll over?

If so, it might help the bearish H&S to evolve: 

The bullish inverse H&S it still in play on the EURX weekly, for the time being at least:

Friday 16th (10.30 am)
Some more 'risk on' seems to be creeping in. Charts haven't changed that much though. Seems a bit like the calm before the storm. 

Friday 16th (6.30 am)
Stocks are down again, the Aussie is down but it's 'risk on' with the Euro pairs. There is still concern over the Fiscal Cliff and the Euro zone crisis but some poor data was thrown into the mix last night. Most notably that Europe back in recession. Yet, the Euro rallies, the USD is doing some 'planking', Gold, a safe haven, has fallen overnight and the VIX is only at 18! It is all rather odd. 

The EURX has ticked up to a critical level resistance level now at the monthly pivot and daily 200 EMA. It will be interesting to see if it can get up through this level:

TS has had another good week BUT not so me! I took the E/A short earlier in the week and closed out for a few pips profit after the trade went sideways for a couple of days. Ho hum. Then, the next signal on this pair, that I miss, gives up to 150 pips!

As well, there were 3 other signals this week that I closed a mental eye to: Swissie, E/U and E/J. Well the Swissie gave up to 35 pips, the E/U up to 40 and the E/J, with the help of some news, has given up to 200 pips!

The other signal was on the A/U and this has given up to 60 pips. It has bounced off the monthly pivot and daily 200 EMA as I thought it might:

So, another week of 'good horse but dud jockey' stuff for me!

Thursday 15 th (9.50 pm) (read my 2pm post)
The EURX continues to rally and the USDX is still flat:

The E/J is now moved 160, thanks to easing rumours. Pity I didn't take this signal!

The Aussie is still falling and I'm keen to see what happens at the monthly pivot:

The latest EUR/AUD signal has worked a treat. The signals are hard to pick at the moment:

Thursday 15 th (5.50 pm) (read my 2pm post)
The earlier signal on the E/J got a boost by talk of easing:

I've got a TS signal to short the A/U but the 1.03 level looks to be a bit of a road block.

This strange Euro rally and AUD slump has boosted the EUR/AUD signal from overnight:

BTW: I know the S&P500 has been taking it on the chin BUT I've still got it holding within  a trading channel at the moment and, both it and the Dow are still trading above their weekly bull support trend lines:

Thursday 15 th (4 pm)
The USD and the Euro are both rising. The Yen pairs have taken off due to easing comments. 

Thursday 15 th (2 pm) It all looks very BLAH on the chart front!
All the charts look very blah to me. What does that mean? Well, it looks like it might be a bit longer before decent conditions set up for 4hr trend trading. This is where you need patience! I'll explain why I'm thinking this. Relevant charts are below the text.

Risk Off:
USDX: For optimum 'risk off' trading I'd want to see the USDX above the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily charts and trending up. What do we currently have? Price trending up to flat above the Cloud on the 4hr chart. OK/Good. Price stuck at the top edge of Cloud on the daily chart but at least it is trending up. Not great, but close, except for the fact that there is a lot of resistance above current price.

EURX: For optimum 'risk off' trading I'd want to see the EURX below the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily chart and trending down. What do we currently have? Price trending up and entering the Cloud on the 4hr chart. Poor. Price chopping sideways and at the top edge of the Cloud on the daily chart. Poor.

So, the pathway for 'risk off' looks patchy at best.

Risk On: 
USDX: For optimum 'risk on' trading I'd want to see the USDX below the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily chart and trending down. What do we currently have? Price trending up to flat above the Cloud on the 4hr chart. Poor. Price stuck at the top edge of Cloud on the daily chart and trending up. Poor.

EURX: For optimum 'risk on' trading I'd want to see the EURX above the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily charts and trending up. What do we currently have? Price trending up and entering the Cloud on the 4hr chart. OK but not great. Price chopping sideways and at the top edge of the Cloud on the daily chart. OK but, also, not great.

So, the pathway for 'risk on' looks patchy at best too.

USDX 4hr Cloud

USDX Daily Cloud

EURX 4hr Cloud

EURX Daily Cloud

Other points of divergence: 
  • We've had big falls across stocks without the usual corresponding jump in the USD.
  • The VIX is up a bit after last night BUT still below 20.
  • The Euro has rallied whilst stocks and the Aussie fall.
These ALL spell 'warning to me'. I feel like a major realignment is in the forming. Kind of like when a train slows at a siding or junction as it shifts across to different tracks giving a rather bumpy ride. I don't know whether the new direction is going to be 'risk off' or 'risk on' but I'll keep watching to try and pick up the unified momentum shift when it does, eventually, kick in.

So, what to do? I will continue to watch for 4hr TS signals but I will wait for better conditions to set up, as per the Cloud charts before further trading. I suspect that better trading will be had off shorter time frame 30 min charts during the late London and Early US session until there is more chart convergence supporting a unified direction. This is a pattern I've come to be quite familiar with during periods of Cloud divergence.

I also suspect that a major news item could explode these moves along the way. Something like an announcement about sorting the 'Fiscal Cliff' impasse. Otherwise, price might continue to chop around until some equilibrium is restored when some news eventually comes out 

Thursday 15 th ( 8 am)
'Risk off' with the Aussie pairs and stocks continued into the close. This week is falling into the old category of choppy 4hr trades with some good 30 min trading opportunities in the later London /US session. Last night was such a night with reasonable 30 min trades on the A/U and the S&P500:

Both the EURX and USDX are trading at the top edge of their daily Cloud:

The USDX is free and trading above the Cloud on the 4h:

The EURX is only just below the Cloud on its 4hr chart:

The S&P500 has now closed below its 200 EMA:

The Dow continues to fall as well:

I wouldn't be taking any of the 'risk on' Euro currency signals against this backdrop. I'm closing off the current signals.

Thursday 15 th ( 6am)
It has been a rather odd session with the indices drifting in more of a 'risk on' manner but stocks and the Aussie have fallen. Some good data was, again, moderated by concerns over the 'Fiscal Cliff' and Europe. The USDX has tended a bit lower and the EURX has closed up and out of its trading channel:

The E/U is flat:

The E/J is about 40: 

The Swissie is flat: 

The A/J is down about 30 and I'm closing this signal off:

Note how the A/U took a hit though:

The S&P500 is struggling to get back above the daily 200 EMA before market close: 

The EUR/AUD after being flat for a few days has reversed to give a new TS long:

It has been a week of fairly choppy trade across most of the pairs and one that would be better to have left. Cloud divergence pointed to this for the week. I had a bit more of an Epiphany last week and mentioned this fact in my w/e post. The action on the EURX Cloud charts supports the observations of choppy trades for this week:

So now we have some 'risk on' across some Euro pairs but 'risk off' across stocks and the Aussie. This is further divergence that makes me uneasy. I'm waiting for more convergence across the markets before being confident in taking any signals and I'd have stops to entry ASAP if I was trading. I always say to 'trade what you see' but when you see divergent and choppy price action across the markets you need to take caution. That's what I'm seeing at the moment. 

Wednesday 14th (9.50 pm)
I've got TS signals on the E/U, E/J, A/J and Swissie. There is divergence on the Cloud charts still so I'm cautious, especially with such major news items on the horizon: Fiscal Cliff and Euro zone news. Also, I'd really like to see a break, close and hold out of the trading channel on the EURX first. This is not a time for placing a trade to set and forget:

Wednesday 14th (5 pm)
I'm still away and not able to access charts too often. The 5pm candle has shown the E/J trying to form a TS long signal and the A/J with a very new TS long signal. Nothing elsewhere though for now. 

The USDX is still fairly flat:

The EURX might be trying to turn up:

The E/U just might be trying for a breakout of the wedge pattern. descending wedge patterns are supposed to be bullish patterns so it will be interesting to see if this technical pattern evolves. The 9pm candle may have more to offer here:

The A/U looks bullish but there isn't too much momentum there just yet:

There is still divergence on the Cloud charts so, with all this indecision I'll be waiting for trend line breaks to be confident in new signals. Asian stock markets were mostly up today and Europe is up at the moment. US markets are up in pre-market trade too. The S&P500 30 min chart is one ugly chart at the moment:

Wednesday 14th (5.30 am)
The indices have continued with their choppy trade:

The EUR/AUD signal is still flat:

The E/U signal has reversed and is now closed at -30 pips. I'm not at all surprised this pair is choppy at the moment. It is nearing a major S/R level of 1.2622 on the weekly chart. This significant level forms up the 'shoulder' on my inverse H&S pattern:

Price is still trading towards this level on the 4hr chart but within a descending wedge like pattern. Price is about 85 pips away from the 1.2622 level at the moment. I on't be shorting this pair unless there is a new signal and a break, close and hold below this key level:

I don't have any new 4hr TS signals on any other charts. 

Stocks have chopped around as well and there wasn't even aTS SPY trade possible last night. The VIX has fallen further though which I still find quite strange and at odds with what I'd expect given Fiscal Cliff concerns. It seems to me that the markets are expecting Obama to solve this matter:

Tuesday 13th (8.30 pm)
GBP data good. Has reversed the G/U signal. EUR/AUD trade up a bit. E/U signal hasn't moved. No other new TS signals.

Tuesday 13th (5 pm)
The E/U signal formed but it is the only new signal. I'm going to wait a bit here before taking it, probably until after the 8.30 GBP news. I'd like to see how European markets opens up first too. Note: The E/J short is actually still intact from last week. EUR/AUD is trading flat. G/U still up a bit. That's all. Not surprising things are quiet as  the markets wait for some Fiscal Cliff news and, also, there were massive moves last week. I'd have stops to entry ASAP on any open trades.

Tuesday 13th (4 pm)
Risk off is picking up. The E/J signal from last week has picked up again:

E/U is trying to form a signal but I need the 5pm candle close info first:

The G/U, that I ignored is picking up but remember there is GBP news out later:

The Loonie is trying to form a signal too, at this hugely significant parity level:

The EUR/AUD is still flat lining:

I need the next candle close, in 45 mins, at least to confirm any new possible signals.

Tuesday 13th (11.15 am)
I've updated my Stocks:Nov page.

Tuesday 13th (10.20 am)
It looks like a bit of 'risk off' is creeping into the markets with the USDX ticking up a bit:

Interestingly, the only new TS signal from late last week was the G/U. It went sideways for a while but has now closed below the daily 200 EMA and looks more bearish. I ignored this TS signal but it is only up 20 pips at this stage. Yet another case of my TS system knowing better than me perhaps? There is red flag GBP data out later though which might impact this signal:

The EUR/AUD signal is still trading flat.

The E/U is trying form up a new TS short signal as it also tries to hold above the bottom trend line of the trading channel:

Whilst the A/J is trying hard to form a TS long signal:

I'm off soon for a rather long drive and won't be updating until 5pm or so.

Tuesday 13th (6.20 am)
The indices just bobbed along sideways overnight in choppy trade. Stocks were up slightly but the point to note here is how the VIX fell. I find this odd given the state of Europe and concerns over the 'Fiscal Cliff':

There are no new TS signals and few of interest look like forming soon. Most pairs have both DMI lines below the 20 level and some have their ADX there too.

The EUR/AUD has flat lined since the TS signal at 9pm here last night. Gold and Silver have dipped a bit and their signals, from last week, are now closed. The A/U and A/J have both stalled at the moment. The NZD/USD has now turned back up and is trying to form a new TS signal but I'm leaving this pair for a bit as it has been very choppy. 

The markets seem to be waiting for some break through news to give it some direction. I suspect they're waiting for 'Fiscal Cliff' news. This news, if and when it comes, could send the markets running and it depends on the news outcome as to which way they'll run. That seems to be 'crystal ball' stuff at the moment BUT I'm still seeing bullish signs for 'risk on' around the charts, for what ever that is worth. The USDX still could be printing a bearish H&S pattern, this would be bullish for stocks and 'risk on':

I realise that both the S&P500 and Dow are trading below their Clouds on the daily Ichimoku charts but I'm wondering if this isn't a 'Bull Flag' forming here on the S&P500 daily chart??

I have to travel again today so won't be around much.

Monday 12th (9 pm)
I have only received one new signal on the 9pm candle: TS SHORT: EUR/AUD.

I do notice though that the A/U almost formed a TS LONG signal on the 9pm candle.

Remember it is USA holiday for Monday 12th. Also, lots of Euro meetings etc this week so the Euro could be quite volatile.

Monday 12th (5 pm)
No new TS signals on the 5pm candle close. 

I'm closing off the E/J and NZD/USD trade signals that were carried over from last week. Silver and Gold are still going.

Monday 12th (4 pm)
Not much change. I'm closing off the G/U signal from last Friday (at entry).

Monday 12th (1 pm)
I've just had my first 4hr candle close and there are no new TS signals yet.

Not a whole lot happening on the Index front yet either:

There still seems to be the following main tensions:
Risk On: positive Chinese data
Risk Off: US Fiscal Cliff and Europe

BTW: It is a Public Holiday in the US on Monday for Veterans Day. Thus, trends may not kick in until Tuesday US time.

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