Monday, November 5, 2012

Trading Week 05/11/12

Saturday 10/11 (6am) 875 + 420 = 1295 pips signaled this week!
It has been a rather strange US session so far. It has nearly 2 hrs until close though. So far, we've seen the USD rise along with stocks which bucks the usual trend. 

It feels like something big is building here and I'm not sure what, just that it is building. The fall in the USD did not bring out any new 'risk off' TS signals. There seems to be a reluctance to trade 'risk off'. A point I am noting.

The 4 current TS signals are still going though. They have chopped around a bit but are all still going and have yielded up to the following pips: E/J 120, NZD/USD 50, Silver 50 and Gold 200. That equates to 420 pips. Add this to the earlier weekly tally of 875 and that brings the pip tally to 1295.

Friday 9/11 (10.30 pm)
No new signals yet but it looks like some 'risk off' signals are trying to form with this latest push up in the USD:

It will take another couple of hours though; until the 1am candle close here and I won't see that! No signal to short just yet on the S&P500 though. This may evolve closer to US market open though:

E/U: Trying to form a short on the 4hr:

E/J: remember how I said I wouldn't short the E/J this week? The TS signal here is now up 120 pips! Groan!

There are more signs for 'risk off' at the moment. I'll take these once I see the signals form.

Friday 9/11 (8.30 pm)
Ummm..this is getting boring. The USDX keeps bouncing around the 80.70 level.:

Stocks are yet to open but giving nothing away in pre-market:

The E/U is still conforming to the wedge pattern for now:

Friday 9/11 (5 pm)
No new TS 4hr signals. USDX still sitting at 80.70...not even bothering with a chart!

Silver and Gold looking bullish still though:

Friday 9/11 (2.30 pm)
Chinese CPI was poor but yet we're seeing the USD fall and 'risk on' across the pairs. Maybe they suspect more Chinese easing is on the way?  Some think it's short covering before the w/e. Might be...we'll see. Guess where the USD is sitting? guessed it!

I'm still watching to see if the bearish H&S pattern evolves. This would be bullish for stocks.

I've also been looking at my charts of the Dow and S&P500 today. Here is what I'm seeing and thinking:
Price is sitting on the daily 200 EMA but still supported by a weekly bull trend line. I wouldn't get too worried unless this weekly trend line is broken:

Price is trading below the Daily Ichimoku Cloud BUT the ADX isn't giving any notion of a major new trend just yet:

The Dow has broken its daily 200 EMA but is also supported by a weekly bull trend line. Like with the S&P500, I wouldn't be getting too worried unless the support trend line is broken:

Price is trading below the daily Ichimoku Cloud here too but, again, there is no new trend evident on the ADX:

I've been saying for some time now that this pair looked bearish and it is unfolding that way. I think $500 could possibly be tested and, if the technical bearish wedge pattern has any validity, it may well be broken.

Friday 9/11 (12 noon)
No real moves so far today. Chinese CPI in 30 min might shift things though.

Friday 9/11 (9.30 am)
No new TS signals here after my 9am candle close. 

The E/J and the NZD/USD from yesterday are still going but I'm not in these or interested in them. The later signals from Silver and Gold are still going too. I'd have stop to entry on all of these though :

Friday 9/11 (6.30 am)
There are some nights when I'm glad I sleep through the US session. Last night was certainly one of them. No new (worthwhile) trends emerged. The USDX is still struggling to get up the courage to move away from the safety of the 50%fib level of 80.70:

Most pairs chopped around. I amended my trend lines on the E/U and I sometimes think that it  'sees' this and then conforms to these levels: 

A/U choppy with no clear trend:
Ditto for the G/U

There were some moves on the Yen pairs. Now, every time I say I won't short the Yen pairs they tend to move! 'Note to self' here for sure! The E/J signal did develop as thought and has moved 80 pips:

Even the A/J is looking bearish. The 4hr chart is trying to form a TS signal. The daily chart shows a bearish 'Dark Cloud' Pattern has formed. I'm still wary of shorting Yen pairs though!

There were no major moves across the stock markets though. The S&P500 chopped sideways mostly. There was an ADX signal in the latter part of the US session but this was not confirmed by my TradeSpotting signal system:

The markets still have another 90 min of trading and the indices are still below the key levels of 1400 for the S&P and 13000 for the Dow. Whilst both are also still below their daily Clouds neither of them seem to have much downward momentum building, just yet. I'm still wary of this down move as even though there are the 'Fiscal Cliff' concerns there seems to be a continual drip feed now of positive US data. Also, the VIX, or fear index, moved down today. All a bit odd: 

Stocks: Apple: I have been posting charts about Apple recently saying that $500 looked possible. This value is looming as the stock is down over $15 at the moment. Now trading @ $542.71.

Thursday 8/11 (7.30 pm) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
Both indices are hanging near their comfort zones. The USDX near 80.70 and the EURX near 100.5:

It seems we might be back to the usual pattern of Ichimoku Index divergence and trends on shorter time frame charts during the US session. Time will tell.

Thursday 8/11 (5 pm) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
A/U: I've re-considered the trend lines on the A/U. This pair just continues to grind higher, slowly but surely. It didn't get dragged down in the 'risk off' move from earlier this week like some other pairs did. There is Chinese CPI tomorrow and then trade balance data on Saturday which may help to shift this pair:

The ADX on the 4hr chart shows no real momentum for any directional trend:

The A/U is trading above the Cloud on both the daily and 4hr time frame BUT the Cloud on both charts is fairly flat and thin making it relatively easy to pass through so this may not offer too much support.

I think I'd be looking to the broader markets for clues on this pair; to the Dow and S&P500. Continued falls on these would cause the Aussie some grief.

Still no new 4h TS signals on my 5pm candle close although the E/J is trying but I'm not shorting yen pairs this week.

E/U: I've re-considered my trend lines on the E/U as well. I see a bit of a bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern maybe forming here on the weekly chart:

A trend channel on the daily chart:

A bullish descending wedge on the 4hr chart.

Now, all of these bullish indicators may seem odd but it sort of dovetails in nicely at the moment with the USD index:

The EURX is at a critical level though too and a clear break down and away from the 100.5 level wouldn't be too encouraging at all.

I've got a short signal trying to form on the E/U so will be watching it closely. 

Thursday 8/11 (2 pm) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
Not a lot of change. No new TS signals of note. The NZD/USD formed a 'sell' but this was after a HUGE spike down so I wouldn't take it.

The USDX is still hanging around at the 80.70 level:

I still think the USDX could rally some more here, at least to the 81.70, if not even further.

Thursday 8/11 (10.30 am) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
Poor results for NZD employment resulted in this move:

Thursday 8/11 (8 am) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
The Dow has closed below 13,000 and the S&P500 below 1400. These are significant breaks of S/R levels. The USDX is back though to hibernating at the 80.70 area, yet again:

Most interesting is that I don't have any new 'risk off' TS signals just yet though. They may well evolve but, given the current Ichimoku divergence, I would be cautious with ANY new signals. It seems to be a struggle between the Obama USD factor vs 'Fiscal Cliff' fear at the moment.

Thursday 8/11 (6.30 am) More winning intra-day SPY trades on offer!
Fear of the 'Fiscal Cliff' sent the USD back up in overnight trading. The USD has headed back up to the 50% fib level:

Stocks have tumbled but are yet to close:

There were profits to be made from these falls though. The S&P500 30 min chart shows how it is much safer to wait for confirmation of any trend signal until the US session opens though:

The early signal I got in the London session would have been well and truly made up for by the signal from the US session though.

The three FX signals have taken a hit and been closed because of this: The A/U now down 20, A/J down 50 and Loonie down 40. I would have had stops at entry on these though after they were all well up yesterday. Gold is up but Silver is down a bit.

I'm going to keep tabs on everything but the next major trend may not be clear for a few more sessions. There is significant divergence across the Cloud charts again for both the USDX and EURX. I'll be looking to these charts for guidance.

Wednesday 7th Nov(8.30 pm)  TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
Watching history in the making:

Wednesday 7th Nov(6.30 pm)  TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
I've still just got only 3 'risk on' TS FX currency signals for the time being: A/U, A/J and Loonie.  

I missed Gold and Silver earlier. I had a TS LONG on both of these. I'd have 'stop to entry' soon if on these though. Optimism might end up causing these to fall:

Wednesday 7th Nov(6 pm)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
I've got a signal to LONG the S&P500. No surprises there! The Nov $143 Call is @ $1.78:

I can't monitor these trades as they go on during my night. I'll see how this goes though.

Wednesday 7th Nov(5 pm)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
No new 4hr TS signals just yet after my 5pm candle close. 

Wednesday 7th Nov(4.50 pm)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
The EURX may end up bouncing off the daily Cloud:

The USD was trying to get up through the Cloud:

Stocks: Two of the major indices, the Dow and S&P500 are currently embedded in their respective daily Clouds:

This Cloud activity on these indices isn't such a bad thing. It gives me breathing time as they either finish ascending or descending. Thus, it gives me time to assess whatever the new trend will be and then to make my next move.

Wednesday 7th Nov(4.30 pm)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
Some big moves on the USD as expected with Obama:

I'll update again after the 5pm candle close here ......30 min away.

Wednesday 7th Nov(6.30 am)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
It has all gone quiet as we wait to hear the US election result. I'd have 'stops to entry' on any open trades. I think a Romney win will see the USD rally and an Obama win will see the USD pullback. That is just my humble 2 cents worth, nothing more. So, I sit here and wait like the rest of the world.

The USDX is in either bull flag mode or a turn to make the H&S mode. I'll wait and be guided by trend line breaks:

Wednesday 7th Nov(6.30 am)  weekly TS tally 935 + 32% Spy trade! It's all happening with TS!
The USDX just might start to form up that H&S I have been spying!

The 50% fib level on the USDX of 80.70 proved a little too hard to get over for the time being at least. It could turn out to be a small bull flag forming up here though too.  Trend line breaks will be important to watch for here:

The EURX seems to have put in a bottom at the previous S/R level of 100.5. This is seen more clearly on the daily chart:

The previous 'risk off' signals have mostly closed now. The 'risk on' signals on the A/U and A/J are continuing.
A/U up about 20 pips:
A/J up about 30 pips: 

I'm starting to get a few more 'risk on' signals forming up too. The Loonie is a new one but I don't like this pair and it is running into the 4hr 200 EMA.  It will probably take my 9am candle for more to confirm.

The E/J trade was the only TS signal that did not evolve and I'm putting it down as a -50 pips even though I said I wouldn't short the E/J this week:

I'm thinking that an Obama victory will help continue the 'risk on' rally and that a Romney win will boost the USD resulting in 'risk off' trends. Time will tell of course. I'll trade what I 'see' though but at the moment I'm seeing a shift to 'risk on'.

SPY Trade: There was another great intra day SPY trade on the S&P500 overnight. I got a signal to long the S&P500 when the index was at $1414.

Thus, I would have bought the Nov $142 Call. It was a little more out of the money and thus cheaper. This call went from $1.74 to $2.30; an increase of 0.56 cents.

The ROIC for this short term trade was a massive 32%:
ROIC = (0.56/$1.74) x 100 = 32%

Tuesday 6th Nov (9 pm) TS pip tally = 935!
I've also had a TS signal to LONG the A/J now.

Tuesday 6th Nov (5 pm) TS pip tally = 935!
The AUD news has really helped the EUR/AUD signal from last Thursday. It is now up 170 pips!

That brings the maximum pip haul from 4hr TS signals since Thursday to 935 pips!!!!! 
That is pretty good for less than one week of Forex!

The A/J has not moved as much as the A/U and it hasn't closed above the key 83.5 level nor produced a TS signal. The A/U has given a new TS signal but it is the only 'risk on' signal, price is outside the Bollinger bands on the 4hr and it is US Election day tomorrow. Thus, I think it would be safer to wait right now. 

Tuesday 6th Nov (10.50 am) TS pip tally = 865!
I'm watching the A/U and A/J for new signals after the Interest rate announcement. 

Both are trading above their 4hr Ichimoku Cloud, the A/J is above on its daily Cloud and the A/U is almost breaking out and up from its daily Cloud
Tuesday 6th Nov (9 am) TS pip tally = 865!
Is the Obama wave starting already? The H&S on the USDX is still trying to form. It could do so by rolling now, even from this point. In fact, this would create a better angle for the neckline. A neckline angled in the direction of the fall makes the H&S move more likely. Not my pearl of wisdom but something Dean Malone, from Compass FX, once told me:

It seems clear that many others have the same fib levels in under watch that I do. Look how the 50% fib is acting as support now:

BTW: I placed a few Options trades today. I'll update these on my Stocks:Nov page later.

Tuesday 6th Nov (6.30 am) TS pip tally = 865!
The USDX has held its position overnight in what is most likely now 'wait and see' until after the US election:

Stocks just bounced along sideways:

The G/U and EUR/AUD were the only two to add to their tally overnight. The maximum TS signal moves now stand at: E/U 100, Swissie 70, G/U 120, EUR/AUD 100, Silver 100, Gold 350 and the USD/SGD 25 (how pathetic is that!). The newest TS signal on the E/J is still valid but I had said I'd wait for a trend line and monthly pivot break and this has not evolved as yet:

Monday 5th Nov (9 pm)    815 pips so far from TS signals since Friday! (see 8pm post)
I've had a new TS signal to short the E/J. I am not shorting any Yen pairs but, if I was, I would wait for a close below the bull trend line and monthly pivot area:

The Aussie pairs are clearly waiting for the RBA announcement tomorrow before committing to any new major move.

Monday 5th Nov (8 pm)    815 pips so far from TS signals since Friday!
I've been looking over the TS 'risk off' signals that are currently in play. It is interesting to see how much the various pairs have moved. The total (maximum) pip tally from these moves, so far, is a whopping 815! 

E/U has moved 100

Swissie: has moved 70
G/U has moved 90

 Silver has moved 100

Gold has moved 350

 USD/SGD has moved a pathetic 25! I'm still thinking of dropping this pair!

EUR/AUD has moved 80

Monday 5th Nov (7 pm)
Poor Spanish unemployment data has given the current TS 'risk off' signals a move along. I'll update these moves after the next candle close. The USDX has rallied to close above the 80.70 level which represents the 50% fib retrace from the last major swing high back in mid 2010:

I'm just putting this out here hypothetical musing......"the USD will rally to the 81.70 level to form the shoulder of my H&S pattern. Then, the US election results will come in with an Obama victory at which point the USD then rolls over to form the H&S pattern".

Silver Update: 
I also noted, mid last week, about the bear flag forming on Silver too. It has fallen over $30 (300 'pips') since the bear flag break down:

This metal is also at a significant level now, having broken through its daily 200 EMA and its daily Cloud: 

According to 'bear flag' technical theory, the price can fall the equivalent in length to that of the original flagpole. The flagpole in this case was about 320 pips. So, a fall from the flag breakout of around 320 pips could see Silver fall to around the $28.50 level. This just so happens to be a right on the former daily bull trend line. This also dovetails nicely! 

Monday 5th Nov (5 pm)

Gold Update: I noted, mid last week, about the bear flag forming on Gold. It has fallen over $30 (300 'pips') since the bear flag break down:

This metal is at a critical level now, hovering just above the daily 200 EMA and, also, at the bottom edge of the Ichimoku Cloud: 

A break of the the daily 200 EMA might enable the 'bear flag' pattern to fully develop. According to 'bear flag' technical theory, the price can fall the equivalent in length to that of the original flagpole. The flagpole in this case was about 850 pips. So, a fall from the flag breakout of around 850 pips could see Gold fall to around the $1625 level. This just so happens to be a former support / resistance level. Dovetails nicely! The daily 200 EMA is one to watch now.

A continued rally in the USD would no doubt help the Gold bear flag pattern. The USD rally, in turn, would most likely be boosted by a Romney victory. Curiouser and curiouser.

No new 4hr TS signals for now.

Monday 5th Nov (1 pm)
  • No new 4hr TS signals so far this week.

  • TS signals from late last week that are still going: take profit or stop to entry though: E/U 50, Swissie 40, G/U 70, Silver 80+, Gold 300+, EUR/AUD 70 and USD/SGD flat/10 pips.

Monday 5th Nov
There is a bit of a 'risk on' mood about this morning. Some positive AUD data will no doubt help this along. The daily bull trend line is helping to hold up the EURX for the time being:

My broker has changed the chart update times, yet again. My candle update times are now:
9am, 1pm, 5pm, 9pm, 1am and 5am.

My next update will be after my first 4hr candle close for this week at 1pm.

I'd have stops to entry or take early profit on any open trades given the amount of news on this week.

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