TS signals this week = 460 A/U trend break = 120 Total= 580 pips!
Some missed earnings by the likes of Google, Microsoft and McDonald's have really spooked the markets overnight. This helped the USDX to retrace back almost to the 61.8% fib level. It is currently at the bear trend line of the symmetrical triangle and struggling there a little bit:
I have received a few new TS signals so far: E/U, Swissie, USD/SGD, G/U, Loonie. No signals on the E/J, A/U, A/J or Kiwi. I find this a bit odd that the usually vulnerable pairs are holding up better than the others. Personally, I would want to see a break up over the 80 level on the USDX before trading 'risk off' as this is counter to the main trend on the Ichimoku charts.
The most amazing trade for last night would have been an intra day trade on the SPY. A TS signal to go 'SHORT' came through during the US session when the S&P500 was at $1444.68:
I would then have looked to buy the Nov SPY Put @ $1.51. This Put Option increased in value throughout the trading session to $2.67. This is an increase of $1.16:
The Return on Risk for this trade was an amazing 77% for just one trading session.
ROR = ($1.16/ $1.51) x 100 = 76.8%
I am away for this w/e and will post updates when possible.
I'd posted earlier about how I thought the USDX might retrace to the 61.8% fib level at around the 80 mark. I've looked again though and noticed the very mean looking Bollinger band staring down price on this index. So, the re-trace might not get that far!
The EURX has started a bit of a re-trace too but, at the moment, it is still trading within a channel or flag pattern. I'd want a clear break down from this flag before trading 'risk off':
The E/U, too, has started to retrace but, like with the EURX, I'd want a clear break down from the trend channel before I'd trade 'risk off'. It has a mean looking Bollinger band under current price which may act as support!:
It is 'Ditto' for the E/J, A/U and A/J. These may be just 'Bull Flags' forming. We won't know until there is a clear break of trend line.......either up or down!
The Indices are still more positively aligned for 'risk on' trading than otherwise so I need good supporting proof, in the form of these trend line breaks, before trading otherwise.
I'm away over the w/e and will update when I can.
Not much change on the USDX compared to earlier charts. Remember it is Option expiry today so things could move a bit.
The USDX continues to bounce around the 38.2% fib re-trace level. Remember I'm looking for it to test the 61.8% level (see 9.30am post):
The EURX is refusing to fall at this stage and still hugging a previous S/R level:
I'm wondering if the A/J is simply resting, 'bull flag' like:
I've had another look at the USDX. Price is currently stalled at the 38.2% fib retrace from the last swing high. see the chart. I wouldn't be surprised though to see it retrace all the way back to the 61.8% fib level. Now, then, that would put price back at the weekly pivot, weekly 200 EMA and significant bear trend line. That is a tonne of resistance there for sure. Something to look forward too!
Markets have been choppy since Google disappointed the markets with poor earnings news. The USX has bounced off the support trend line:
The EURX is clinging onto its S/R level though:
This choppy trade meant that there wasn't much opportunity for a decent SPY trade:
My E/U trade pulled back and I have been stopped out for 80 pips.
The A/J and E/J were the only two TS signals that gave extra pips yesterday:
The A/J gave up to 180 pips:
The E/J gave up to 150 pips:
It has been a great week and I'm going to wait now until next week so as to assess how significant this pull back will be. It might be just a pull back or it could be a complete reversal. Either way, I'll trade it when the conditions are right!
The USDX is still bouncing along the bottom trend line:
Nothing new to add for now. I think E/U meeting news releases will drive the next move on these markets, up or down, I have no idea! I'd kinda like a pull back for next week though!
The USDX is still trying to work out what do from its current position at the bottom trend line:
The EURX is at a key S/R level too:
We have had 3 'risk on' rally days in a row. So, we might get a pause now, or even a reversal, so be prepared for that. The E/U summit meeting might kick things along one way or the other and it is anyone's guess whether the vibe will be positive or not. I have tightened my stop on my E/U trade.
The S&P500 looks like it might be setting up for another good intra-day SPY trade:
Chinese GDP was as expected and some other data was actually quite a bit more positive. The A/J and A/U are loving this and continuing to rally, for the time being. The next market events to watch for though are the E/U meetings set down for today and tomorrow.
I'm out for doctor appointments this arvo.
The G/U has paused at the trend line break out which is a good thing. This might yield an opportunity for a new TS signal to form up on this pair:
The S&P500 looks like it might be setting up for another great London/US intra-day SPY trading opportunity:
The USDX is still testing the trend line break out. I'm wary with the Chinese GDP data (due out at 1pm).
BTW: I have taken down some pages from my blog.
No major changes. I'd be cautious leading into Chinese GDP, due out here at 1pm. Protect profits and avoid new trades until after this BIG news item.
BTW: I have taken down some pages from my blog.
I'm on to something big here guys.....bigger than me and I'm still trying to sort out how to manage such a consistently successful FX trading system. My TS signals from this week on the E/U, E/J, A/J and Swissie are up 400 pips. My trend line breaks on broad TS signals on the A/U and USD/SGD (from last week) are up 240 pips...and they're all still going!
The USDX has fallen out of the symmetrical triangle and currently re-testing this broken level. The EURX just continues to climb:
I've now also had a signal on the NZD/USD.:
E/U is up 80
I would then have looked to buy the Nov $145 Call option. This option opened at $2.58 and closed at $2.97. The Option increased by 0.39 cents. The ROR for this low risk trade for just one session was 15%:
ROR = (0.39/$2.58) x 100 = 15%.
Wed 17/10 (8 pm) 37% ROR for a low risk SPY trade in just one session! (see 7am post)
Still rolling along here, as per previous posts and holding. The G/U has made that break though now:
The S&P500 looks to be setting up for another good night!
There is important US data tonight as well as Chinese GDP tomorrow.
The USDX seems to be on the slide again:
My TS signals are still moving along. I'm sitting with these and I'm in a 'LONG on the E/U. I'm expecting turbulence given the significance of some of these trend line breaks:
E/U up 70 
A/J up 70
The G/U looks to be setting up for a wedge breakout:
The A/U is up 60 after its trend channel breakout
The USD/SGD is up 90 after its wedge breakout:
U/J + Loonie: So, why did I give up trying to trade the USD/JPY technically? Just have a look at how this has trended up whilst the USD has headed down. The Loonie has done this too!
The USDX is holding up well above support, for the time being at least. Both indices show pin bar reversal candles as well:
The USDX has run into support in the form of the bottom triangle trend line:
The EURX is struggling at the 1st monthly pivot resistance level:
I'd have stops to entry asap, or I'd be locking in profits, if in any trades as the markets are still quite jittery. Tomorrows Chinese GDP could shake things up as well as the E/U meetings set down for Thurs/Fri.
The TS signals have pulled back a bit but they are all still in profit: E/U=60, E/J=70, A/J=70 and Swissie= 30. You could cut and run now with a massive 230 pips! Not bad for one day!
NB:The EUR/AUD = 0 BUT I'm dismissing this signal now as we seem to have the Euro and Aussie tracking back into 'risk on' together.
The A/U has broken out and up from its trend channel but the move took soooooo long that my TS signal here is not really valid. This is the same for the G/U. The A/U and A/J are still below their Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart but are both above on the 4hr. They don't have far to move to get above their daily Cloud though.
Just FYI: the USD/SGD has now moved 90 pips from the triangle breakout I was tracking on it. I dismissed this pair due to the big spike but....the trend has held!
The USDX did continue to fall and the EURX has now broken out and up from the triangle pattern:
This has meant that my 'risk on' correlation amongst the indices has continued to hold. The earlier signals on the E/J and A/J are each up about 40 pips. The E/J has now broken out and up over a major major trend line dating back to 2008! Expect some turbulence here guys! I'm hoping for a close and hold above 103 on the E/J and above 82 on the A/J here myself:
E/U: this needs to clear 1.3 level and the triangle trend line:
Swissie: this has had a big move though and has broken a trend line. This could re-trace a bit:
EUR/AUD: A very weak signal and not a popular with me
The G/U is trying to form a signal but I'd wait for the wedge breakout anyway:
The Loonie is playing true to its name and running counter to other USD pairs. It has rallied albeit in a beautiful technical way with a triangle breakout at least!
S&P500: The main stunner for the night though was on the S&P500...again!. This was another fantastic opportunity for an intra-day SPY ETF trade. A TS 'LONG' signal came in the late London/US session and yielded a clean, low risk 100+ pips.
This TS 'LONG' signal came through when the S&P500 was at $1436.23. Thus, I would have looked to buy the Nov $144 Call Option. This Option increased by 90 cents overnight! It opened at $2.43 and closed at $3.33. See below:
The maximum possible Return on Risk for this trade, for just one session, was a whopping 37%. see below:
ROR = (0.90/2.42) x 100 = 37% For just one session!
Tuesday 16/10 (8 pm) 23 % ROR possible on a SPY trade overnight! (see 6.30 am post)
The signals on the E/U and the others are still trying to form up. The E/U is also trying to hold above the 1.3 level. The others are close to forming up too but haven't quite got there. It may take the US session to get things going. I want to see the USD hold below the Cloud on the 4hr chart too:
The EURX is currently at significant resistance of the bear trend line from earlier this year. We need a close above this level, to avoid a double top reversal pattern and, also, for the USDX to hold below the Cloud and keep trending down to enable 'risk on' to gather steam:
European markets are currently up but the S&P500 has not moved yet either:
There is important US data due out later as well as lots of Earnings tonight. These news items may impact on the current 'risk on' trend.
I've had a close below the Cloud on the 4hr chart for the USDX. This means that both the EURX and USDX are set up for preferable 'risk on' trading across the 4hr and daily chart time frame.
BUT....this has to hold!
I am already getting a heap of 'risk on' signals starting to try and form up though....the E/U, A/U, G/U and Swissie...just to name a few! I need the 8pm candle to close on these new signals first though. The E/J formed so I already have the E/J and A/J.
Tuesday 16/10 (4 pm) 23 % ROR possible on a SPY trade overnight! (see 6.30 am post)
There is still a bit to go on the USDX Cloud for my liking. I've got the E/J trying to form a signal though too. I'm still waiting for it close above the 103 level first:
The A/J is up about 40 pips from the earlier TS signal:
The A/J is still the only pair that I've had a TS signal on. The USDX has not broken back below the 4hr Cloud yet though.
Q: Are we gearing up for a return to 'risk on'??
A: Maybe! The USDX is trying to pierce back below the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr chart. Success here would bring price on the USDX below the Cloud on both daily and 4hr time frames. This would be more of a 'risk on' orientation:
The EURX is also pushing up and out of the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr time frame. Price is above the Cloud on the daily time frame already. This would also be more of a 'risk on' orientation:
So, this movements would bring the Ichimoku charts into alignment for preferred 'risk on' momentum. Nothing is guaranteed of course but the path for 'risk on' is simply clearer than for 'risk off'. I will be watching closely for any 'risk on' TS signals on the 4hr charts if these events do evolve. I'm not sure how much of this sentiment is due to the 'Presidential Election' factor though. There does seem to be more of a drip feed of positive data coming out of the US. I suspect that this is more of the reason behind the fall in Gold than anything else.
Tuesday 16/10 (6.30 am) 23 % ROR possible on a SPY trade overnight!
Positive retail sales data helped to lift stocks overnight but the currencies seem to be playing it a bit cautious. The USDX is still hanging on to the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX to the daily 200 EMA:
The USDX is still just above the Cloud on the 4 hr chart and I really want to see this push back below the Cloud before taking any 'risk on' signals. I don't have any TS 4hr signals just yet, although the A/J is close:
The A/J, often referred to as the 'risk on' bell weather' pair, seems to be making a first jump out of the box. Refer to my w/e notes about how I'm playing this pair:
I've drawn in an extra bear trend line on the NZD/USD. It seems to be painting itself into a corner:
The S&P500 gave another fantastic intra-day trading opportunity on the 30 min charts last night. A TS signal to go LONG was received earlier in the night when the S&P500 was at $1423.74.
I would then look to be buying the Nov $142 Call Option. The data for this Option, as it traded overnight, is from Morningstar and is pasted below. Note, I have to work backwards here as this is back data:
This $142 Call Option increased from $3.01 to $3.72. An increase of 0.71 cents. Thus, Return on Risk for this trade, as calculated from this back data would have been a maximum of:
ROR= ($0.71 / $3.01) x 100 = 23.58%. That is a fantastic return for just a one day trade.
Starting to look interesting.....
USD retails sales data is out before the US market opens tonight. This is one stock I'm stalking in light of this data:
I'll be checking this in the morning.
Monday 15/10 (8.20 pm)
Hooley Dooley...some major moves since the last update but still, no long term 4hr TS signals. The USDX seems to have failed that break out:
I'm still watching for a break back below the Cloud on the 4hr. A break back below the Cloud will give an alignment for possible 'risk on':
I've actually re-thought my trend lines on the A/J. I've adjusted this pair to trading within a trend channel, as for the A/U. Note the break from the previous trend channel...on the daily chart:
Now this is really interesting. It's as if the USD was watching for my trend line!
No 4hr TS signals anywhere! Not surprising with this choppiness!
I have put in an order to sell the Nov $44 PUT @ 0.65 cents here on EBay though. I've been watching this pair on my Prime list and it was also discussed on CNBC over the w/e:
Monday 15/10 (4 pm)I have put in an order to sell the Nov $44 PUT @ 0.65 cents here on EBay though. I've been watching this pair on my Prime list and it was also discussed on CNBC over the w/e:
The choppiness has continued today. The USDX is back struggling up against the bear trend line, 80 level and monthly pivot. One would have to think that a failure to break this level again, after the previous double top, would be a rather bearish sign for the USD. It may well plough on through it though. That's why I'm waiting. It's anyone's guess at the moment as to which it will move from this point! We all have our opinions about what it SHOULD do but, that's of little use. Trade what you see.
Monday 15/10 (12 noon)
I've had my first candle close but, with a return to 'risk off' so far this am it means I don't have any new signals just yet. This might take another candle close to form up, if the current trend continues. I'd be waiting until after Chines CPI anyway. This is due out shortly. Aussie data so far this morning has been rather positive.
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