NB: I've started a new post to run my Trading Week updates as there would be too many charts loaded otherwise.
Saturday 25/2/12 (6.30am)
The USD finally broke below major support in the 78.5 level. The next major barrier, as mentioned, is the 78 level. The EURX has risen to bump into the daily 200 EMA just below the 106 level. Yes, that level where some folk had scoffed at me! Price is currently struggle to keep moving up but, at this point of the week, I think it will park there for the weekend and get some energy back before next week.
My E/J trade is now up almost 400 pips and I've locked in 350. I decided to lock in at 108.4 given that it just broke the 109 level.The A/J is still running too. It is up 76 pips!
I've only managed to get into 2 trades this week. That's not too bad I suppose given I'm one person, trading one account, out a a fair bit with doctors etc and, can really only trade during the Asian. Many of the other pairs I stalked or discussed have gone on as well to give mega pips!
E/U: 300 pips
Swissie: 150 pips
Gold: 300 pips
Silver 100 + pips!
So, this week I have caught and locked in 370 pips with both trades still running! This is a huge haul!
My TS System, just on the pairs I have watched though, could have given in the order of 1200 or so pips!
I'm off to the beach. Summer has finally arrived here!
Friday 24/2/12 (9 pm)
The USDX is tanking as I write this note. It is fast approaching the 78.5 level. This is a significant resistance level for the index. This could be a turning point or, price could keep plowing through. The 78 level would be the next major barrier to further down movement.
The A/J has had a close and hold above the symmetrical triangle trend line. This is a major achievement as this trend line dates back to 2007! I am long this pair from 86. I got in early with a forward order whilst i was out today.
I've locked in some more profit on my E/J long. I'm now safe with 230 pips and the rest is still running, as is the A/J.
Thus, so far, I've locked in 250 pips on still just 2 trades!
Friday 24/2/12 (5 pm)
The USDX is currently trying to put in a bit of a rally but the EURX keeps on walking uphill.
I moved my stop on my E/J trade to lock in 200 pips and it is now just under the 107 mark.
I put an order in to Long the A/J from 86 given that I was out for the day. That has been filled and I've locked in 20 pips and moved my stop to b/e on the remainder as I'm not confident about how long this sentiment will last so, I'm playing it safe especially with the w/e looming. I do have a TS signal to Long this now though. NB: Fitch has just announced that is has down graded 3 Aussie banks so I'm glad I played it safe! This will not be taken well by our AUD!
220 pips locked in for the week is fantastic and, from just 2 trades with both still running!
Friday 24/2/12 (12.15 pm)
Hmmm. The EURX is still on the ascent whilst the USDX pauses, looking into the chasm past 78.5! I'm not making predictions here. I never do, I just interpret what the charts tell me and trade what I see and, at the moment, it looks like it is going to continue to be 'risk on'. Things can turn in a heart beat though so you need to be vigilant.
The E/J has just broken the 107 mark. The A/J is on the march upwards too. I have 42 min before the next candle close but, at this stage, I have a new Long signal on the A/U.
I'm out for a few hours now...more doctors.
Friday 24/2/12 (9.30am)
Not much has changed. The USDX is close to breaking down below the bottom range of the trend channel it has been bound by for some weeks.
This would be a fairly significant moment if this index breaks down and holds below the 78.5 level. I see that stocks would rally from this point and, possibly, quite significantly.
I'm watching for that A/J long break out like a hawk! It seems that the Prime Ministerial issues are taking a back seat today.
I see, too, that the Swissie Short has now moved for 85+ pips.
I need more of me to catch all of these trades!
Friday 24/2/12 (6.30am)
I woke to read this CNBC article which flows on from my comments here yesterday:
Now this had me chuckling too. As I keep saying: I see it, I don't believe it but, I'll trade it!
Well, the USDX has fallen more overnight and the EURX just keeps rising. For those of you who can't understand why I would Long the Euro this week, that is, trade 'risk on', have a look at the compressed 4hr EURX chart below. It was a classic triangle breakout as well as one of my TS trend signals. I saw this looming last week and was waiting for it.
My E/J trade is now up 190 pips! This pair has actually moved up 220 pips from the triangle breakout though. Given that I am one tiny person down here trading solo as I am unable to catch all of the trend trade signals that come through. This is account size related as well as time zone related.
Some other TS signals and tredn line breaks that have evolved include;
Long E/U: up 160 pips since triangle break on Monday
Long Gold: up 430 pips since triangle break on Tue
Long Silver: Up 100 pips since trend channel break last night
Short Loonie: Up 60 pips from trend channel break yesterday.
Thursday 23/2/12 (9.30 pm)
Not too late home. The USDX is in free fall at the moment and the EURX is butting up against the psych level of 105 which is giving it some pause. There is a bit of a retreat at the moment as the EU has just cut the European area growth rate forecast. So, I'm not sure what sentiment I'll wake to tomorrow!
I've has a TS signal to short the Swissie. It has broken the 0.91 level and currently just re-testing the daily 200 EMA @ 0.906.
I'm still Long the E/J with 100 pips locked in.
Thursday 23/2/12 (6.30 pm)
I'm out tonight and will miss the 9pm candle close. It currently looks like the E/U will form a TS Long signal on this candle though. Similarly, the Swissie has already formed a TS signal to short although I would still need to see this candle close though too. I'm not trading the Swissie though this week.
Thursday 23/2/12 (5 pm)
The USDX is edging back to...guess where guys? You got it, the 79 level! The EURX continues its upwards march. Some, in fact many, folk scoffed at me, 6 weeks ago, when I pointed out then that, technically, the EURX could very well re-trace right back up to the 106 level. This move would put the E/U back up around 1.36. Well, have a look at the daily chart now! It could indeed turn at any point, I know that but, it could also still keep marching right up to the 106 level.
The A/U ended up retracing earlier to close within the triangle. This is a classic example to illustrate why you should always wait for the 4hr candle to close before committing to any trade. Yet again, the lack of a full TS signal kept me out of a potentially losing trade!
The issue of this 'risk on' rally came up yesterday in a trading forum that I participate in. There is a view, shared by many, that the Euro is vulnerable and that traders should be looking to short the E/U. Some were clearly perplexed that I was Long onn the E/J! Whilst I agree that the US and Euro zone regions are both in dire financial straits, I see a possible reason for this risk on sentiment and, what might be fueling it. I have pasted below the comments I made on this very topic:
This is why I think it is entirely possible that China will help out. Very simplistically, this (outside help) should boost the Euro making the world 'feel economically safe and better', this would then, most likely, push down the USD, thereby boosting the stock market and helping the US economy and, thus, making that part of the world 'feel economically safe and better'. Then, when we all 'feel better' we will buy more goods from China. It's sort of like robbing Peter to pay Paul or shifting money around on the Monopoly board. None of this is at all logical but....logic seems to be absent on so many fronts, especially FX. The alternatives are just too dire to contemplate....
PS: We used to have this stupid advert here when I was a kid...the solution to all problems was "to have a Bex (brand of headache tablet) and a lie down". As if that was going to solve our problems but, hey, if they told us often enough...hopefully we'd fall for it and, then, it would become a self fulfilling prophecy! What a load of...!!! I have lots of conspiracy theories...
Well, Dean Malone has sort of echoed a similar sentiment here in this video too. I think it is worth watching.
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/22212/22212.html
Thursday 23/2/12 (12.30 pm)
The USD is putting up quite a fight and trying to rally here. The USDX needs to get clearance above the weekly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA and the 79.5 level before I would be confident that we are really back to 'risk off'.
I do see that the A/U is trying to break below the bottom trend line. There are over 30 mins to the candle close for this though. I still do not have a TS signal to Short this pair yet though and I won't be at my computer for this next candle close at 1pm, and possibly the next one either, to re-asses this status. Oh well, that's the price I pay.
PS: this from FX Live @ http://www.forexlive.com/:
Thursday 23/2/12 (9 am)
There is still doubt in my mind about how the market sentiment will evolve from this point. I will take the A/J long if 'risk on' continues and look to short the A/U if 'risk off' takes over. Both of these trades will be taken, as per usual, on a break of the trend line and a valid TS signal.
I am still Long on the E/J with my stop just belwo the 106 level. I am hoping that this level, which was previously resistance, will now become strong support.
Thursday 23/2/12 (6.30am)
It has been another bumpy night with most pairs drifting sideways. There has been mixed news overnight but still the overall sentiment with most pairs seems to be flat to 'risk on'. One notable exception was the Cable which fell quite heavily. These are interesting days indeed. I am seeing a lot of the usual correlation becoming untied. For example, both indices rose along side each other for some of last night and the Cable and the Swissie both fell.
The Gold breakout continues and Silver looks like it's lining up to be next. Gold has now actually moved up 300 pips since the triangle breakout I advised to watch for!
The USD strength yesterday pointed to a falling A/U. My TS signals though kept me out of shorting this pair for now, which was great. I have moved the bottom trend line on this pair to follow current support.
My E/J trade is still moving along and price has held overnight above the critical 106 level. I have moved my stop to lock in 100 pips on this trade. I am still not confident that 'risk on' will endure so I am, yet again, being cautious. I still have my eye on the A/J for a Long if the sentiment remains 'risk on' though. It is edging closer to the top trend line of the major triangle break out I discussed over the w/e. It could go either way, for sure, I'm not stupid. If it falls I will leave it BUT if it breaks up and out I'll be on it! Trade what you see, it's pretty straight forward.
I'm out at the hospital, again, for much of the day so may not update much, or at all.
Guys, I feel like I have this fantastic thoroughbred in my TS system but, that I'm just one little bumpkin jockey stuck out in the boondocks having a nice time for sure, but, all on my own.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (9 pm)
I've just had a 4 hr candle close and the E/J has held above the all important 106 level. I'm obviously hoping that old resistance becomes new support here! The A/J hasn't really moved yet but if this 'risk on' sentiment does continue then that is my next possible trade. At the moment, both the USDX and EURX are climbing...go figure!
Wednesday 22/2/12 (5.30 pm)
I don't even need to say where the USDX is! So, the E/U and E/J are moving up a bit. The E/J is really struggling to break above the 106 level though. This is not at all surprising as it is a huge psychological level, the daily 200 EMA and a fib level for this pair. It will be 'do or die' for this trade I think. If it can pass the 106 level then I think it will keep going on from there as there is little other resistance to give it too much bother. Otherwise, it could be a turning point for this, and other, 'risk on' trades. Time, as they say, will tell. I do still have a strong TS signal to go long on the daily chart.
The A/U is looking quite bearish though. It broke down from a triangle and is currently re-testing this break out level before potentially, as is often the case, falling away further. The trouble for me shorting this pair though is that we had good AUD data out today, Gold looks to be on the march upwards, my TS signal for a short A/U on the 4 hr has faded and the USD is not really cutting it back upwards, well, not yet at least. These do not auger well for an A/U short.
I have not yet determined which pairs are setting up best for a 'risk off' trade if indeed we do get a change in sentiment. I am loathe to short any Yen pairs due to the BOJ. I will have a look and update about this later.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (2 pm)
Ok, so I challenge you, have a guess where the USDX is at? 79...'again'...now this smacks more of Rocky and Bullwinkle...no? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7mmrF-4rUE
The USD did put in a bit of a rally for an hour or so but it was short lived. It may pick up steam again when London opens though. Like I said, I'm waiting for a clearer sign of direction before trading any further.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (11am)
Not much has changed since earlier this am. The USDX is still on 79 although the EURX looks like it's trying to push up.
A/U: Although the ADX pointed to a short trade here I still don't have a complete TS signal to go short on the 4 hr charts for this pair. This could change by the next candle close though.
Gold: I'm a bit annoyed that this took off without me overnight after I had noticed it trying to break up yesterday. I need another me in the northern hemisphere.
A/J: I won't short this, or any Yen pairs. I'm still waiting to see if it will break out and up.
E/U: I will leave as I'm still in the E/J.
Swissie: I won't trade this again until there is a clear break out of the trading range either up or down (previously highlighted on charts)
Wednesday 22/2/12 (7am)
Markets drifted sideways in bumpy trade overnight as the positive Greek news was met with a bit of skepticism. The USDX bounced sideways as did the EURX. The USDX is actually back, sitting on the fence, at the safety of the midway 79 level, yet again. It is clearly as undecided about what to do with itself as the wider market is!
The A/U looks like forming a triangle break out soon and a short TS signal, whilst yet to form fully, seems to be developing.
I'm still wary of shorting the AUD though. Especially given that Gold broke up and out of a symmetrical triangle over night. This was also a TS signal to LONG that has yielded over 100 pips from just the breakout alone!
I'm still long on the E/J and I'm still going to leave it. Anyone that tries to tell you which way the markets will head from here is spinning rubbish. No one really knows. I, like so many others, have my views about where I think the broader market should head but, so what! I will continue to trade what I see. I'm in a trade at risk free so I'll keep it but, I won't open any new trades until there is some clearer direction. Up, down, whatever, don't care, I'll trade it. I'm off to the beach now with my girlfriend.
Tuesday 21/2/12 (9 pm)
The USDX is putting in a bit of a rally as I write. Its currently trying to break up from the midway 79 level.
I'm still long on the E/J but it has not managed to get up over the daily 200 EMA. I'm just going to let this run though.
The A/U has just started to break down but I won't be shorting or trading anything else tonight. I might find I'm trading 'risk off' tomorrow! Doesn't bother me. I'll trade what I see.
Saturday 25/2/12 (6.30am)
The USD finally broke below major support in the 78.5 level. The next major barrier, as mentioned, is the 78 level. The EURX has risen to bump into the daily 200 EMA just below the 106 level. Yes, that level where some folk had scoffed at me! Price is currently struggle to keep moving up but, at this point of the week, I think it will park there for the weekend and get some energy back before next week.
My E/J trade is now up almost 400 pips and I've locked in 350. I decided to lock in at 108.4 given that it just broke the 109 level.The A/J is still running too. It is up 76 pips!
I've only managed to get into 2 trades this week. That's not too bad I suppose given I'm one person, trading one account, out a a fair bit with doctors etc and, can really only trade during the Asian. Many of the other pairs I stalked or discussed have gone on as well to give mega pips!
E/U: 300 pips
Swissie: 150 pips
Gold: 300 pips
Silver 100 + pips!
So, this week I have caught and locked in 370 pips with both trades still running! This is a huge haul!
My TS System, just on the pairs I have watched though, could have given in the order of 1200 or so pips!
I'm off to the beach. Summer has finally arrived here!
Friday 24/2/12 (9 pm)
The USDX is tanking as I write this note. It is fast approaching the 78.5 level. This is a significant resistance level for the index. This could be a turning point or, price could keep plowing through. The 78 level would be the next major barrier to further down movement.
I've locked in some more profit on my E/J long. I'm now safe with 230 pips and the rest is still running, as is the A/J.
Thus, so far, I've locked in 250 pips on still just 2 trades!
Friday 24/2/12 (5 pm)
The USDX is currently trying to put in a bit of a rally but the EURX keeps on walking uphill.
I moved my stop on my E/J trade to lock in 200 pips and it is now just under the 107 mark.
I put an order in to Long the A/J from 86 given that I was out for the day. That has been filled and I've locked in 20 pips and moved my stop to b/e on the remainder as I'm not confident about how long this sentiment will last so, I'm playing it safe especially with the w/e looming. I do have a TS signal to Long this now though. NB: Fitch has just announced that is has down graded 3 Aussie banks so I'm glad I played it safe! This will not be taken well by our AUD!
220 pips locked in for the week is fantastic and, from just 2 trades with both still running!
Friday 24/2/12 (12.15 pm)
Hmmm. The EURX is still on the ascent whilst the USDX pauses, looking into the chasm past 78.5! I'm not making predictions here. I never do, I just interpret what the charts tell me and trade what I see and, at the moment, it looks like it is going to continue to be 'risk on'. Things can turn in a heart beat though so you need to be vigilant.
The E/J has just broken the 107 mark. The A/J is on the march upwards too. I have 42 min before the next candle close but, at this stage, I have a new Long signal on the A/U.
I'm out for a few hours now...more doctors.
Friday 24/2/12 (9.30am)
Not much has changed. The USDX is close to breaking down below the bottom range of the trend channel it has been bound by for some weeks.
I'm watching for that A/J long break out like a hawk! It seems that the Prime Ministerial issues are taking a back seat today.
I'm also watching the A/U for 2 triangle break outs!
I need more of me to catch all of these trades!
Friday 24/2/12 (6.30am)
I woke to read this CNBC article which flows on from my comments here yesterday:
Nothing, it seems, can stanch the three-month rally — not debt crises, Mideast violence, nor aglobal slowdown — as the market rides a 20 percent bull-market run that has taken hold since October.
It’s not that there aren’t reasons to sell off — plenty of them in fact. It’s just that nobody seems to care. Ref: http://www.cnbc.com//id/46483737
Now this had me chuckling too. As I keep saying: I see it, I don't believe it but, I'll trade it!
Well, the USDX has fallen more overnight and the EURX just keeps rising. For those of you who can't understand why I would Long the Euro this week, that is, trade 'risk on', have a look at the compressed 4hr EURX chart below. It was a classic triangle breakout as well as one of my TS trend signals. I saw this looming last week and was waiting for it.
My E/J trade is now up 190 pips! This pair has actually moved up 220 pips from the triangle breakout though. Given that I am one tiny person down here trading solo as I am unable to catch all of the trend trade signals that come through. This is account size related as well as time zone related.
Some other TS signals and tredn line breaks that have evolved include;
Long E/U: up 160 pips since triangle break on Monday
Long Gold: up 430 pips since triangle break on Tue
Thursday 23/2/12 (9.30 pm)
Not too late home. The USDX is in free fall at the moment and the EURX is butting up against the psych level of 105 which is giving it some pause. There is a bit of a retreat at the moment as the EU has just cut the European area growth rate forecast. So, I'm not sure what sentiment I'll wake to tomorrow!
I'm still Long the E/J with 100 pips locked in.
Thursday 23/2/12 (6.30 pm)
I'm out tonight and will miss the 9pm candle close. It currently looks like the E/U will form a TS Long signal on this candle though. Similarly, the Swissie has already formed a TS signal to short although I would still need to see this candle close though too. I'm not trading the Swissie though this week.
Thursday 23/2/12 (5 pm)
The USDX is edging back to...guess where guys? You got it, the 79 level! The EURX continues its upwards march. Some, in fact many, folk scoffed at me, 6 weeks ago, when I pointed out then that, technically, the EURX could very well re-trace right back up to the 106 level. This move would put the E/U back up around 1.36. Well, have a look at the daily chart now! It could indeed turn at any point, I know that but, it could also still keep marching right up to the 106 level.
The issue of this 'risk on' rally came up yesterday in a trading forum that I participate in. There is a view, shared by many, that the Euro is vulnerable and that traders should be looking to short the E/U. Some were clearly perplexed that I was Long onn the E/J! Whilst I agree that the US and Euro zone regions are both in dire financial straits, I see a possible reason for this risk on sentiment and, what might be fueling it. I have pasted below the comments I made on this very topic:
This is why I think it is entirely possible that China will help out. Very simplistically, this (outside help) should boost the Euro making the world 'feel economically safe and better', this would then, most likely, push down the USD, thereby boosting the stock market and helping the US economy and, thus, making that part of the world 'feel economically safe and better'. Then, when we all 'feel better' we will buy more goods from China. It's sort of like robbing Peter to pay Paul or shifting money around on the Monopoly board. None of this is at all logical but....logic seems to be absent on so many fronts, especially FX. The alternatives are just too dire to contemplate....
PS: We used to have this stupid advert here when I was a kid...the solution to all problems was "to have a Bex (brand of headache tablet) and a lie down". As if that was going to solve our problems but, hey, if they told us often enough...hopefully we'd fall for it and, then, it would become a self fulfilling prophecy! What a load of...!!! I have lots of conspiracy theories...
Well, Dean Malone has sort of echoed a similar sentiment here in this video too. I think it is worth watching.
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/22212/22212.html
Thursday 23/2/12 (12.30 pm)
The USD is putting up quite a fight and trying to rally here. The USDX needs to get clearance above the weekly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA and the 79.5 level before I would be confident that we are really back to 'risk off'.
PS: this from FX Live @ http://www.forexlive.com/:
China likely to reduce economic growth targets
The AUD/USD is drifting lower again as risk sentiment eases in Asia; the Australian leadership spill, comments such as these from the Chinese Premier, and generally lower equity markets are all contributing to the mood.
Thursday 23/2/12 (9 am)
There is still doubt in my mind about how the market sentiment will evolve from this point. I will take the A/J long if 'risk on' continues and look to short the A/U if 'risk off' takes over. Both of these trades will be taken, as per usual, on a break of the trend line and a valid TS signal.
Thursday 23/2/12 (6.30am)
It has been another bumpy night with most pairs drifting sideways. There has been mixed news overnight but still the overall sentiment with most pairs seems to be flat to 'risk on'. One notable exception was the Cable which fell quite heavily. These are interesting days indeed. I am seeing a lot of the usual correlation becoming untied. For example, both indices rose along side each other for some of last night and the Cable and the Swissie both fell.
Guys, I feel like I have this fantastic thoroughbred in my TS system but, that I'm just one little bumpkin jockey stuck out in the boondocks having a nice time for sure, but, all on my own.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (9 pm)
I've just had a 4 hr candle close and the E/J has held above the all important 106 level. I'm obviously hoping that old resistance becomes new support here! The A/J hasn't really moved yet but if this 'risk on' sentiment does continue then that is my next possible trade. At the moment, both the USDX and EURX are climbing...go figure!
Wednesday 22/2/12 (5.30 pm)
I don't even need to say where the USDX is! So, the E/U and E/J are moving up a bit. The E/J is really struggling to break above the 106 level though. This is not at all surprising as it is a huge psychological level, the daily 200 EMA and a fib level for this pair. It will be 'do or die' for this trade I think. If it can pass the 106 level then I think it will keep going on from there as there is little other resistance to give it too much bother. Otherwise, it could be a turning point for this, and other, 'risk on' trades. Time, as they say, will tell. I do still have a strong TS signal to go long on the daily chart.
The A/U is looking quite bearish though. It broke down from a triangle and is currently re-testing this break out level before potentially, as is often the case, falling away further. The trouble for me shorting this pair though is that we had good AUD data out today, Gold looks to be on the march upwards, my TS signal for a short A/U on the 4 hr has faded and the USD is not really cutting it back upwards, well, not yet at least. These do not auger well for an A/U short.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (2 pm)
Ok, so I challenge you, have a guess where the USDX is at? 79...'again'...now this smacks more of Rocky and Bullwinkle...no? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7mmrF-4rUE
The USD did put in a bit of a rally for an hour or so but it was short lived. It may pick up steam again when London opens though. Like I said, I'm waiting for a clearer sign of direction before trading any further.
Wednesday 22/2/12 (11am)
Not much has changed since earlier this am. The USDX is still on 79 although the EURX looks like it's trying to push up.
A/U: Although the ADX pointed to a short trade here I still don't have a complete TS signal to go short on the 4 hr charts for this pair. This could change by the next candle close though.
Gold: I'm a bit annoyed that this took off without me overnight after I had noticed it trying to break up yesterday. I need another me in the northern hemisphere.
A/J: I won't short this, or any Yen pairs. I'm still waiting to see if it will break out and up.
E/U: I will leave as I'm still in the E/J.
Swissie: I won't trade this again until there is a clear break out of the trading range either up or down (previously highlighted on charts)
Wednesday 22/2/12 (7am)
Markets drifted sideways in bumpy trade overnight as the positive Greek news was met with a bit of skepticism. The USDX bounced sideways as did the EURX. The USDX is actually back, sitting on the fence, at the safety of the midway 79 level, yet again. It is clearly as undecided about what to do with itself as the wider market is!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (9 pm)
The USDX is putting in a bit of a rally as I write. Its currently trying to break up from the midway 79 level.
The A/U has just started to break down but I won't be shorting or trading anything else tonight. I might find I'm trading 'risk off' tomorrow! Doesn't bother me. I'll trade what I see.
Tuesday 21/2/12 (5 pm)
The EURX continues to rally up and the USDX down. The E/J and E/U are still moving up and my remaining E/J long trade is up around 90 pips now. The Swissie is really trying to resist breaking down through the 0.91 barrier.
The AUD doesn't seem to quite know what to do. A falling USD would usually mean a rising AUD. The fortunes of the AUD though are often tied to Gold and a falling USD can spell two outcomes for metals. Firstly, a falling USD, due to reduced fear and a 'risk on' sentiment, can result in Gold falling in value as investors sell this asset and look for other, more risky, trading vehicles. Secondly though, a falling USD can also result in Gold appreciating as a falling USD might have some see that as the currency is devalued they will look for another store of wealth and that might see some buying Gold and, thus, pushing the value of the metal up. Gold at the moment is trading sideways as it doesn't seem to know how to react to this current 'risk on' rally. I'm sure that as soon as it works out what it is going to do then, we will see the AUD move. Or, the AUD might just mature a bit and break out and do its own thing.
Gold is looking bullish to me though. The A/U and A/J are currently looking bullish too. Remember though, that any bad Euro zone news could turn things around in an instant!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (3 pm)
I've been at the hospital most of the day but have come home to a bit of good medicine at least. The Euro has just jumped on some positive Greek news and this has helped my long E/J trade. The next hurdle this pair faces is the 200 EMA at the 106 level on the daily chart. Price is nudging up against this now.
The Swissie is currently down at 0.91 and looking ripe for a short soon too. The A/U, A/J, Loonie and USD/SGD aren't doing much at the moment though.
I really don't understand this 'risk on' sentiment and don't know how long it will last. I'm sure some laughed at me 6 weeks ago when I suggested the Euro could rally. This was after an inverted hammer appeared on the weekly EURX and E/U charts. The same folk probably scoffed again when I suggested, back then, that the E/U could possibly rally all the way back up to the 1.36 level. Like I say, I don't understand the rally but I'll trade it anyway aware, from a technical perspective at least, that it can keep going on for a bit longer. One thing is clear though, when and if the market sentiment changes, I'll trade that direction too!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (7.45 am)
This is the pair I'm really stalking. The A/J. It could go either way, I know that. My preference is to trade Yen pairs Long though as I see shorts as more vulnerable to BoJ intervention.
Hmmm..I also see that the triangle break out on the E/U that I had flagged in my analysis over the weekend delivered up to 100 pips over night. I chose the E/J though which is ticking along too but not as much as this pair. Problem: I need more than one of me to manage all of this!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (6.30 am)
The 'risk on' rally limped along last night amid hope of some positive outcomes concerning the Greek debt saga and some good news out of China. The USDX is still trading below the daily bull trend line it broke down from yesterday. The EURX is trading above the bear trend line of the symmetrical triangle that it broke out and up from yesterday.
There are no new TS signals on the A/U or A/J yet. The previous TS signals on the E/U and E/J are still limping along though; these started mid last week. I actually went long on the E/J last night and that looks ok as it holds on above the 105 level. The Loonie is still trading just below the bottom trend line of its triangle that it broke down from yesterday too. The The Swissie is getting to an interesting low level now as well. it is approaching the bottom of the trend channel it's been stuck in for the last few weeks. If the Swissie breaks the 0.91 level this could be worth investigating for a short as well.
Caution is needed though as this 'risk on' trend could easily do an 'about face' if there is any further bad news.
PS: I've locked in some pips on my Long E/J and move my stop to b/e on the remainder. Things could move quickly either way here on Euro zone news so I'm not prepared to carry any risk here for now.
Monday 20//2/12 (9pm)
Not much has changes since the 5pm update. The Greek debt saga continues to weigh down on the 'risk on' rally with a drip feed on news updates coming out even as I write.
Remember there is no US trade tonight. I still like the look of the E/J as it is still holding above the all important 105 level, for now at least.
Monday 20//2/12 (5pm)
Just back from cricket pick up. The' risk on' rally has stalled a bit and seems to be hanging in limbo, probably waiting for some direction from somewhere. I don't have any TS signals just yet but the E/J is looking pretty attractive given that it is still holding above the triangle breakout and also, above the significant 105 level. I've posted a screen shot of a condensed monthly chart and, hopefully, you can see how significant this 105 level is for this pair.
At this early stage of the week, I'm favouring the E/J, A/ and A/J as potential trading vehicles. Things could turn quickly given the Greek Debt saga though so I will be ready to trade which ever way things move.
The EURX continues to rally up and the USDX down. The E/J and E/U are still moving up and my remaining E/J long trade is up around 90 pips now. The Swissie is really trying to resist breaking down through the 0.91 barrier.
The AUD doesn't seem to quite know what to do. A falling USD would usually mean a rising AUD. The fortunes of the AUD though are often tied to Gold and a falling USD can spell two outcomes for metals. Firstly, a falling USD, due to reduced fear and a 'risk on' sentiment, can result in Gold falling in value as investors sell this asset and look for other, more risky, trading vehicles. Secondly though, a falling USD can also result in Gold appreciating as a falling USD might have some see that as the currency is devalued they will look for another store of wealth and that might see some buying Gold and, thus, pushing the value of the metal up. Gold at the moment is trading sideways as it doesn't seem to know how to react to this current 'risk on' rally. I'm sure that as soon as it works out what it is going to do then, we will see the AUD move. Or, the AUD might just mature a bit and break out and do its own thing.
Gold is looking bullish to me though. The A/U and A/J are currently looking bullish too. Remember though, that any bad Euro zone news could turn things around in an instant!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (3 pm)
I've been at the hospital most of the day but have come home to a bit of good medicine at least. The Euro has just jumped on some positive Greek news and this has helped my long E/J trade. The next hurdle this pair faces is the 200 EMA at the 106 level on the daily chart. Price is nudging up against this now.
The Swissie is currently down at 0.91 and looking ripe for a short soon too. The A/U, A/J, Loonie and USD/SGD aren't doing much at the moment though.
I really don't understand this 'risk on' sentiment and don't know how long it will last. I'm sure some laughed at me 6 weeks ago when I suggested the Euro could rally. This was after an inverted hammer appeared on the weekly EURX and E/U charts. The same folk probably scoffed again when I suggested, back then, that the E/U could possibly rally all the way back up to the 1.36 level. Like I say, I don't understand the rally but I'll trade it anyway aware, from a technical perspective at least, that it can keep going on for a bit longer. One thing is clear though, when and if the market sentiment changes, I'll trade that direction too!
Tuesday 21/2/12 (7.45 am)
This is the pair I'm really stalking. The A/J. It could go either way, I know that. My preference is to trade Yen pairs Long though as I see shorts as more vulnerable to BoJ intervention.
Tuesday 21/2/12 (6.30 am)
The 'risk on' rally limped along last night amid hope of some positive outcomes concerning the Greek debt saga and some good news out of China. The USDX is still trading below the daily bull trend line it broke down from yesterday. The EURX is trading above the bear trend line of the symmetrical triangle that it broke out and up from yesterday.
PS: I've locked in some pips on my Long E/J and move my stop to b/e on the remainder. Things could move quickly either way here on Euro zone news so I'm not prepared to carry any risk here for now.
Monday 20//2/12 (9pm)
Not much has changes since the 5pm update. The Greek debt saga continues to weigh down on the 'risk on' rally with a drip feed on news updates coming out even as I write.
Remember there is no US trade tonight. I still like the look of the E/J as it is still holding above the all important 105 level, for now at least.
Monday 20//2/12 (5pm)
Just back from cricket pick up. The' risk on' rally has stalled a bit and seems to be hanging in limbo, probably waiting for some direction from somewhere. I don't have any TS signals just yet but the E/J is looking pretty attractive given that it is still holding above the triangle breakout and also, above the significant 105 level. I've posted a screen shot of a condensed monthly chart and, hopefully, you can see how significant this 105 level is for this pair.
Monday 20//2/12 (1pm)
The market gapped open much higher today with a 'risk on' sentiment. The USDX broke down from its wedge pattern and the EURX broke up from its triangle pattern highlighted over the w/e. Gaps like this often get filled so I will wait a bit before trading.
Both the E/U and E/J have broken up out of their triangle patterns and the Loonie has broken down and out from it's triangle as discussed as potentials in my weekend analysis. The E/J has also had a candle close above the very significant and long standing S/R level and psychological value of 105 as well. The A/U and A/J have yet to break out though. Interestingly though, I don't have TS signals yet so I will wait for these to evolve before jumping into any trades.
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