Indices Review for week 13/02/2012

Indices Review for 13/2/12

I have posted 2 reviews today, Sunday 12/2/12.  My Indices Review and my Trading Week review.  Only one e-mail alert will be sent though most likely.  Please make sure that you read the Indices Review so that you understand my perspective for the week.

USDX

Monthly: Trend up overall, BUT, the current new candle, although still bearish is forming a hammer.  Last month’s candle was bearish as well so, this hammer pattern, might be signalling that this downward blip is over.

Weekly:  Trend up, overall / turning. The last 2 weeks’ of candles have been bullish spinning top candles reflecting the indecision that has strangled these markets of late.

Daily:  Down to flat.  There was still a lot of sideways movement last week but Friday’s candle was a bullish engulfing candle.  Price was not able to break, close and hold below the 78.5 level and, on Friday, it rallied up to the next psychological level of 79.

4hr: Sideways. Price has been trading within a narrow range between 79.5-78.5.  Price rallied on Friday up to the 79 level and closed here just above the weekly pivot.

Thoughts:  There is still much uncertainty in the market concerning the Greek debt crisis. 

I will continue to look to LONG the USD in pairs on valid TS signals if price holds above the 79 level.  I still think there could be an attempt for price to further test the lower 78 level so, I will be cautious during this current USD rally upwards.

I will not look to SHORT the USD in pairs on valid TS signals  until price breaks, closes and holds below  the 78.5 level  or until there is a new TS signal to go SHORT.

As always, Fundamentals, by way of Euro zone dramas and news announcements, continue to be triggers for price movement on the indices.  These events can always have the potential to undermine all Technical analysis.

EURX

Monthly:  Trend down BUT turning.  Last month’s candle ended up forming a long legged Doji which represent indecision.  The newest candle is a now forming a bullish engulfing candle.

Weekly:  Trend down, but has turned.    Last week’s candle was a bullish candle pattern.

Daily: Trend up.  I still see that it is entirely feasible that this index could retrace back up to around the 61.8% level which would have it around 106.  Friday’s candle was a bearish engulfing candle though, so the trend could be turning down again.  The daily bull trend line has not been broken yet though so this could keep price supported if, or when, price traces back down to that level.

4 hr: Trend up, overall.  Price did break out and up from the symmetrical wedge/triangle pattern earlier last week on the Monday.  It did evolve into the bull flag pattern as suspected giving bullish action for most of the week.  I, unfortunately, missed this breakout as it came overnight for me.  Price retraced a bit on Friday though.

Thoughts:  I will continue to look to SHORT the Eur in pairs on valid TS signals whilst the USDX continues its rally. I will be watching carefully as price on the EURX approaches the daily bull trend line, weekly pivot and 4hr 200 EMA level though.

I will not look to LONG the Eur in pairs on valid TS signals unless price breaks down on the USDX or until there is a change in trend on the EURX by way of a new TS signal to go LONG.