Monday, September 23, 2013

Trading Week 23/09/13

Friday 28th Sept (9.10 pm)

Friday 28th Sept (6.40 pm)
Indices: The USDX is looking a bit squeezed and the EURX is looking perky:

NB: there is a bit of 'red flag' news over the next hour so be careful...Super Mario and Fed Evans. 

Friday 28th Sept (3.50 pm)
Copper: The monthly chart shows how price respected the 50% fib pull back level from the last up move. This, coincidentally, was at the key S/R level of $3 and, also, another triangle brewing!

Copper Monthly:
Copper Weekly:
Copper Daily:

Friday 28th Sept (3.30 pm)
Some movement starting?

U/J: trending down but no TS signal:

Swissie: A TS 'short' trying to form up here:

Friday 28th Sept (3.10 pm)
Indices: the USD is still tracking basically sideways. I think I had the wrong S/R support line in for the EURX. It looks more like a 'bullish' descending wedge now...time will tell though..

No new TS signals.
Friday 28th Sept (9.20 am) It's a big day for the Nikkei today!
Oh I just realised my error...there is Monday still to go before the month closes!

Friday 28th Sept (9.20 am) It's a big day for the Nikkei today!

The Nikkei put in a surprisingly good day yesterday and made a daily candle close above the monthly bear trend line. I'm sure I won't be the only watching to see where this index closes today. A close above this trend line today will mean a monthly candle close above a resistance level that has not been breached since 1991. The significant S/R level of 15,000 is not too far above yesterday's close either and is another key level to watch. 

Nikkei Monthly: I'm keen to see where this monthly candle closes. A monthly candle close above this trend line would be a rather bullish signal:
Nikkei weekly:
Nikkei daily:

Friday 28th Sept (8.30 am)
Cable: The Cable seems to be resting up near the safety of the 1.6 area whilst it contemplates the journey ahead. There is a major monthly bear trend line not too far above current price; about 300 pips or so. This bear trend line forms the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle on the monthly chart. I'm not at all surprised that price has paused here a bit but I would not be surprised to see more upside, even if just to test this monthly trend line. Current price action on the 4hr chart seems to be shaping up into another Bull Flag. The last Bull Flag break delivered 630 pips so I'll be watching for any other such break. Trend line breaks might hopefully offer guidance here:

Cable monthly
Cable weekly:
Cable daily:
 Cable 4hr:

Friday 27th Sept (6.20 am) Triangles everywhere!
It is the last trading day of the month and I'm looking forward to seeing the monthly candles that finalise up across stocks, currencies and various indices. Many of these could prove to be quite significant.

The 1,685 level supported the S&P500 last night as both stocks and currencies chopped sideways:

S&P500 daily:
S&P500 30 min

Ichimoku Alignment: this has slipped away....again. The USDX and EURX are both back in the Cloud on their 4 hr charts. I'll be keeping an eye on these to see if they kick back in though.

FX has been choppy and I've adjusted trend lines to reflect the latest S/R on this movement:
E/U: this signal closed for a loss of 50:

E/U revised: so, getting rid of the old signal line and drawing in S/R gives this view with the 1.35 looking important:


U/J 4 hr: seems to be trading under another bear trend line.
U/J daily: the larger triangle can be seen here: 

AUD/NZD 4hr: falling back:

AUD/NZD daily: I am keeping an eye on the possible H&S here too. The neck line here is angled the right way. 

Thursday 26th Sept (9.10 pm)
Cable: new trend lines:

BTW: The Nikkei, discussed today in in my Stocks:Sept page, closed up today!

Thursday 26th Sept (8.55 pm)
G/A: this signal has closed off:
S&P500: still holding above the 1,685 for now:
USDX: still 'planking'! 
EURX: choppy

Thursday 26th Sept (3.55 pm)
S&P500: The 30 min chart shows price currently bouncing up off the 1,685 level!

I have been stressing for some time now that this is a key level for the S&P500. The daily chart show why:

Thursday 26th Sept (3.15 pm)
The A/U and Kiwi have closed off like the U/J:

A/U: I'm actually now seeing a bit of a new 4 hr triangle here:
Kiwi: ditto here

E/U: this TS signal is doing little:

G/A: not much happening here either

So, we're all 'watching for Sue'!

Thursday 26th Sept (2.45 pm)
I noted over the w/e how the indices were aligned for 'risk on'. The signals this week have been mostly for 'risk off' and, as such, have done very little. I'm keeping an eye out for new TS signals in line with the indices.

U/J: this has closed off now with the spike:

BTW: many Asian stock markets are trading higher today....including the Nikkei and ASX.

Thursday 26th Sept (11.55 am)
USDX: this kind of sums up the market movement....zilcho!

I'm reading that the Aussie stock, RIO, is up. I wrote this stock up yesterday. Check the triangle again there.

Thursday 26th Sept (10.45 am)
U/J: This TS signal is finally starting to move after doing little for the last few days. There is a daily chart support trend line just below current price though:

Thursday 26th Sept (9.40  am)
I have reviewed a few global market stock indices and this analysis can be found in my Stocks:Sept page.

Thursday 26th Sept (6 am)
Continuing US budget jitters have kept stocks down in US trade but the same gloom isn't being shared with currencies. They are doing their best to resist 'risk off' momentum. I'm surprised to see the USD trading lower given this 'fear'. It is now back below the S/R level of the weekly 200 EMA level. No surprises then that the EURX is pushing higher:
S&P500: down but still above major 1,685 support:

E/U: has given a new TS long:
E/J: signal has closed off after giving 110 pips:

A/U: has yielded 30 pips but seems to reluctant to fall. I'm looking for any reversal here: 

A/J: no signal and still channel bound:

E/A: struggling to get past the 4hr 200 EMA: 

G/U: an 80 pip move from the triangle break but no TS signal. 
Kiwi: also a slow mover:
U/J: ditto

Swissie: has slipped below major support but is still above a weekly trend line:  

AUD/NZD: has paused but this looks like a 'Bull Flag' in the making:

GBP/AUD: a new TS signal and triangle break here: 

Gold and Silver have 'killer' style Bollinger bands on their 4hr charts: 

We have a saying in our house....'watching for Sue'. Let me explain: A few years back we were down at my sister's house; located in a small country town. My husband, brother in law and another bloke went down to the local pub where they spent a few too many hours, sitting in the corner booth of the charming country pub, looking out over fields and the local traffic. When the very jolly blokes eventually arrived back home and were asked why they were down at the pub for so long they replied they were 'watching for Sue'. Implying they couldn't return home as they were watching out the window of the pub for Sue, the other blokes wife, to arrive by car for the evening BBQ. Sue did eventually arrive but much later. So, now, whenever we are waiting and watching out for an event that seems to be taking forever and an age to arrive we refer to it as 'watching for Sue'. These markets have a 'watching for Sue' feel for me at the moment. Something seems to be building but it's taking its sweet sorry time to get here! I'll just keep 'watching for Sue'! 

Wednesday 25th Sept (7 pm)

Aussie Stocks: I have reviewed some individual Aussie stocks and you can view their charts on my Aussie Stocks page.

Wednesday 25th Sept (6.15 pm)
Aussie stocks: bucked the US trend today and closed higher.

XAO: All Ordinaries: looking strong as they hold above support:

XJO: S&P/ ASX 200 

Wednesday 25th Sept (6.05 pm)
Cable: I've drawn in new trend lines to reflect the latest S/R:

Wednesday 25th Sept (5.45 pm)
S&P500: this is still trading above the 1,685 level. I'm thinking that any 'US debt ceiling' solution chatter might sends stocks back up so I'd be wary here for now:

Positive news on this front could also send currencies back towards 'risk on' too so one needs to be rather nimble 'me thinks'!
Wednesday 25th Sept (5.15 pm)
Indices: I'm a little suspicious here. For all the negative sentiment the USD is not really ticking up very far. The EURX isn't falling away either.

All of the TS signals are in profit now. I'm still wary of these moves though.
E/J up110
A/U 20
Kiwi 40
U/J 20

GBP/AUD: this is almost forming a TS signal but is also making a triangle break: 

Wednesday 25th Sept (2.15 pm)
There are a few well know stocks that are setting up with bearish looking patterns. These might be the better ones to play if stocks do keep falling. I have discussed these in my Stocks:Sept page.

Wednesday 25th Sept (9 am)
AUD/NZD: This pair has been one of the better technical plays this week. The last 4hr candle on Friday was a bullish reversal 'Inverted Hammer' candle. This bullish move has now given about 160 pips as price bounced off major support at 1.12. This looks to be forming a daily chart 'double bottom'. Price might struggle a bit if it gets up as far as the 1.14 region though. There are road blocks in the way soon after  in the from of the monthly pivot, 4hr 200 EMA, the previous S/R level of 1.145 and the 50 % fib pullback region:
A/N 4 hr

This 1.14 region is also an important region on the daily chart. There is the slight look of a possible bearish 'Head and Shoulder' pattern forming up on the daily chart and the right shoulder of this developing pattern would be in that vicinity. A respect of this region might lead to the bearish H&S forming BUT a break above might suggest that the bullish 'double bottom' pattern will perhaps dominate.
A/N daily:

Wednesday 25th Sept (6.20 am)
Indices: these has drifted more to 'risk off' due to ongoing concern with the US Debt Ceiling uncertainty. The USDX is a little higher but, given this uncertainty, I'm surprised it isn't higher than it is! It is making me very suspect of the prospect of the 'risk off' signals I have to date!

S&P500: has closed below 1,700 and much is being made of that BUT I see the 1,685 as a more significant level here: 

I'd like to add here that my little 'bellwether' stock, NUE, is still holding above the key $50 level too.

E/U: drifting lower but no TS signal. I'd actually like to see it test the 1.34 level: 

E/J: this signal has chopped around but given 100 pips: 

A/U: doing very little but price is sitting above the 4hr Cloud and that might offer some further support: 

A/J: back below the whole number 93 but still in a channel and no TS signal: 

Kiwi: as with the A/U, doing very little but price is sitting above the 4hr Cloud and that might offer some further support: 

G/U: trying to form a TS signal but a daily close back above the 1.6 would make me wary:
U/J: choppy for no gain:

AUD/NZD: has given the best move this week with a technical bounce off major support following the reversal candle: 

 GBP/AUD: still triangle bound:

So, what do we have? The indices aligned for 'risk on' but a few meandering 'risk off' TS signals. The markets don't seem keen to trade 'risk off' though and that has me wary. I did take the A/U short though but I'll cut it if there is a close back above the 0.94.

Tuesday 24th Sept (7.50 pm)
Some weaker than expected European data has seen the Aussie and Kiwi drift lower, triggering new TS signals. The Cable and AUD/NZD are close to signals too:
A/U: the daily trend line and 0.94 level have been broken here too:
Kiwi: the daily trend line and 0.83 level have been broken here too:
Cable: close!

AUD/NZD: ditto!

Tuesday 24th Sept (4.30 pm)
Indices: these have moved very little. The USDX is essentially 'planking' along the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX is trading under the monthly 200 EMA: i's as if they're waiting for some major piece of news to kick them into action, either up or down! That could come in the form of 'US Debt Ceiling news'....but.....who knows?

S&P500:  many are putting spin on to this recent pullback but I wouldn't get too concerned unless it crashes through the 1,685 support. I see any pullback to test this key level as just one part of any healthy continued up move anyway!

Tuesday 24th Sept (3.20 pm)
The Kiwi signal did not evolve. I've just got the previous open signals on the E/J and U/J limping along:

Tuesday 24th Sept (1.20 pm)
AUD/NZD: In hindsight, of course, BUT Friday's final 4hr candle of a bullish 'inverted hammer' pointed to the possibility of a bullish hold above this key support level:

Tuesday 24th Sept (1 pm)
Kiwi: this could be heading for a 4hr chart trend line break and a new TS signal. A 61.8% fib pullback would bring price back to the key psychological 0.80 area. I need my 3pm candle close to confirm though:

Any sustained pullback might not get that far though as this would involve a clean breakdown through the Cloud:

Tuesday 24th Sept (7.45 am)
S&P500: My TS signal has now closed off here with the latest daily candle close. There isn't a new signal to short here but I'm on the lookout for the next signal though:

Tuesday 24th Sept (5.50 am)
Stocks were down a little overnight but currencies chopped mostly sideways as concern remained about US debt ceiling and German election implications. For all of that though the USD index has failed to regain much ground and is still trading below the weekly 200 EMA. Note the Bollinger bands on many charts today. They are clamping down hard on a number of them and this phenomenon often points to some price tightening before explosive movement. Caution is needed here:
EURX: slipped a bit:
S&P500: down but still above the 1,685 and even the whole number 1,700!

The only open TS signal was the E/J and it remains in a little profit:

E/J: note the Bollinger bands though:

U/J: I did receive a new TS signal on my 11 pm candle for the U/J: 

Swissie: I revisited this pair yesterday and discussed it after some absence. That major weekly chart 0.91 support is still holding for now. Note the Bollinger bands here though!:

E/U: Bollinger band squeeze here too. No TS signal yet:

A/U : flag break but just drifting up with no TS signal:

A/J: flag break here too but just sideways with no TS signal:

E/A: meandering:
G/U: flag break but just drifting up slightly and with no TS signal:

Kiwi: ditto here but a Bollinger band squeeze: 

AUD/NZD: holding above the double bottom still: 

GBP/AUD: flag bound still:

Silver: still in a trading channel:

Gold: ditto here and holding above the $1,300: 

Monday 23rd Sept (9.10 pm)
I'd be careful (avoid!) with any Euro trades ahead of ECB.

Monday 23rd Sept (7.25 pm)
E/J: I have a new signal to short the E/J after my 7 pm candle:

Monday 23rd Sept (6.25 pm)
E/U: I think it is best to close this out for a loss of 40, especially given uncertainty ahead of Super Mario later tonight:

EUR/AUD: this has closed too after giving 120:

Monday 23rd Sept (5.30 pm)
My daughters check out on-line fashion when they're bored. Me? I check charts! I haven't been tracking the Swissie very closely of late...just a peek now and then to compare to the E/U. I've just noticed though that it is trading down near a weekly support trend line:

The whole numbers seem kind of key here as it tries to hang in above 0.91.

Monday 23rd Sept (4 pm)
Not much happening and no new signals. We need some direction from European or US markets. 

The USDX is still slipping though:

The EURX is still hovering just beneath major resistance:

AUD/NZD: is still holding above the 'double'bottom' region:

E/U: TS signal still limping along:

A/U: I've been doodling a little here drawing in flags:
A/J: ditto
Kiwi: ditto here too:

Cable: trying to break out but no TS signal yet:

BTW: The Aussie markets recovered much of their losses after the better than expected Chinese PMI. This result might help to build 'risk on' sentiment for coming sessions.

Monday 23rd Sept (11 am)
The German election outcome is know but the Japanese bank holiday might be moderating any significant reaction to this news. There is Chinese PMI 'red flag' data out in under an hour. There are some new TS signals trying to build on the back of AUD weakness but I'd be waiting for after Chinese PMI anyway to trade these pairs:

The USDX is down a little and the EURX is up a little but that's all:

The Aussie pairs gapped with AUD lower and our stocks are down a bit, apparently due to 'US debt ceiling' concern. Chinese PMI might drive these pairs a bit today.
A/U: This gapped lower and is trying to get back over the 0.94 level.

The A/J: gapped lower to open below the daily trend line but is trying to scramble back up:

The E/U is still holding above the 1.35 and the TS signal here, whilst down, is not out:

The E/J signal has closed off now though:

The EUR/AUD: gapped higher on open but has bounced back down from the 4hr 200 EMA:

The Cable is in a tight pattern but there isn't any 'red flag' Cable news until Thursday:

The U/J is doing little, probably resting up itself too on Bank Holiday!

Kiwi: this signal has closed as price gapped down a bit on open here too but the daily support trend line is still holding:

AUD/NZD: bouncing, for now at least, off the 'double bottom' area:

GBP/AUD: still triangle bound:

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