Monday, September 9, 2013

Trading Week 09/09/13

Friday 13th Sept (4.20 pm)
Stocks: I have used some time this afternoon to update my stocks charts and these are posted in a new Stocks: Sept page. Check out the link to see what has my interest!
Friday 13th Sept (3 pm)
Still quiet and nothing to report.

Friday 13th Sept (10.30 am)
Not a lot happening. USD data later tonight might kick start something. Otherwise, it might need FOMC next Wed to get things moving.

Friday 13th Sept (5.30 am)
Indices: Positive US data was tempered by weaker Euro data and this had most markets chopping sideways, albeit with some spikes here and there. Gold and Silver tumbled though, most likely on the easing tension in Syria and thoughts of QE tapering. 

Indices: not much happening here. In fact, this song came to mind when I looked at these charts this morning!

Ichimoku Update: Both 4hr and daily charts of the USDX are trading below the Kum and, thus, geared towards short USD or, 'risk on'. The party pooper is the EURX though. This index is still in the Kumo on both time frames so, ain't much gonna happen just yet!
EURX 4hr Kumo
EURX daily Kumo

Gold and Silver: these have both fallen and seem to evolved into those bearish H&S patterns I'd been tracking:
Silver daily
Silver 4hr
Gold daily
Gold 4hr

S&P500: choppy but that's to be expected as price struggles at the key S/R level of 1,685:
S&P500 30 min: there was no clear cut TS trend signal here and I'd have been wary with price hovering either side of the 1,685 level and without any major driving news or momentum:
S&P500 daily:

E/U: this signal has now closed:
E/J: back to the triangle trend line
A/U: still above the 0.92
A/J: back to the daily 200 EMA
 E/A: no new signal here
G/U: marking time 
Kiwi: this TS signal still going 

U/J: this TS signal has given up to 50 pips but I'd be wary here. It just looks like its having a bit of a battle whilst trying to get out of the monthly Kumo:
U/J 4hr
U/J monthly Kumo
AUD/NZD: limping

GBP/AUD: a bullish break for sure but no TS signal here yet 

Thurs 12th Sept (8.50 pm)
Metals: those H&S patterns might be evolving on Silver and Gold, even thought the neck lines are sloping the wrong way BUT...these could also be evolving into Bull Flags. Read on!

Silver: might be heading for a daily trend line break this just another 'Bull Flag' in the making? 
Silver 4hr: this chart is messy but, sadly, it makes perfect sense to me:

Gold: As for Silver.....might be heading for a daily trend line break this just another 'Bull Flag' in the making here too? 

Gold 4hr: this chart is messy too:

No new TS signals across the pairs. Not even on the EUR/AUD:

Thurs 12th Sept (7.25 pm)
U/J: this was the only pair to end up closing with a real pin bar reversal style candle:

Thurs 12th Sept (6 pm)
Bullish, reversal-style pin bar candles forming up on a few careful now...U/J, E/J, A/U, A/J. Another hour to go here though. 

Thurs 12th Sept (5.50 pm)
EURX: down BUT not out!

U/J: I'm cautious here. This often tracks with stocks so, any bullish continuation there might help reverse this pair. Also, a possible bullish pin bar reversal candle forming up here!

Thurs 12th Sept (4.30 pm)
Indices: both still a bit choppy.

E/U: I'd expect this to test the broken weekly 200 EMA anyway: 

U/J: this gave a signal on my 3 pm candle:

AUD/NZD: this also gave a signal off my 3pm candle. I'd be wary after such a big move though:

AUD/NZD daily: the daily chart shows that this may have been one big 'Bear Flag' in the making:

S&P500: there is a fair bit of  EUR, GBP and USD 'red flag' news tonight so this may trigger some movement here:

Thurs 12th Sept (12.10 pm)
AUD: poor employment data has sent the AUD tumbling against other currencies.

A/N daily

Thurs 12th Sept (8.30 am)
S&P500: I mentioned on Monday, before the US session, to watch out for a drift higher due to the lack of any scheduled 'red flag' news. I repeated that note for Tuesday's and Wednesday's sessions too. The index has risen from 1,655.17 up to 1689.13 over those three sessions, an increase of almost 34 points!

The S&P500 has now closed above the key 1,685 level and that is quite a bullish signal. I noted yesterday that I had received a TS signal to LONG this index on the daily chart but wanted to see a close above this key level. I'd also now like to see it close above this level for the week and, then, for the month.

Aussie stocks: these had a bullish close yesterday as well. Both the XJO and XAO closed above the key 5,200 level. As with the S&P500, a weekly and monthly close above this level would be a very bullish signal with 5,200 possibly becoming the new 'floor':

XJO: S&P ASX 200

XAO: ASX All Ordinaries

Thurs 12th Sept (5.15 am)
Indices: the lack of scheduled 'red flag' news seems to have helped a continued flow to 'risk on'. The USDX has fallen below key support in the monthly pivot and S/R level of 81.70:
EURX: This is still trying to get up and over its monthly pivot: 

Stocks: the lack of news helped stocks to drift higher BUT the index is struggling a bit at that key 1,685 level. We will need to see if this index can close and hold above this key level:

Indices Ichimoku Alignment: Are we there yet?
Not quite but it is close. Ichimoku alignment is a situation where the USDX and EURX are aligned in one risk on or risk off direction across the 4hr and daily charts. The USDX charts are currently both geared towards risk on or short USD:

USDX 4hr: below the Kumo (Cloud) 
 USDX daily: also below the Kumo

EURX: both of the 4hr and daily charts have price at, or near, the top edge of the Kumo. This can be a region of some strong resistance so price might struggle here a bit.
EURX 4hr: at top edge of Kumo:
EURX daily:  near the top edge of Kumo:

TS signals
E/U: this signal is up to 120 pips now. It has also closed over the monthly pivot and weekly 200 EMA.

E/A: This signal has closed now for no gain: 

Kiwi: This signal is still going and has given 190 pips: 

U/J: this signal has closed now as it struggles to hold above the 100: 

G/A: This signal has closed after drifting for 50 pips. I has stressed I would have waited for a flag break to confirm any short here and this didn't evolve. Now, it seems, the trend break may be higher!

Trend line breaks:
The following charts show the pip gains from technical moves that did not produce clean TS signals. These were levels I had stressed in my w/e updates to watch out for though:

A/U: I stressed to watch out for the 0.92 level and this has now moved 130 pips since then:
This pair looks set to close out of the daily Cloud:

A/J: I stressed to watch out for the daily 200 EMA and this has now moved 180 pips since then:

The A/J is often viewed as the currency 'risk barometer'. This pair might be hanging around, at the top edge of its Cloud, waiting to see what its 'risk buddy', the S&P500 index, is going to do from here:

E/J: I stressed to watch out for the triangle break and this has now moved 100 pips since then:

G/U: I stressed to watch out for the descending wedge break and this has now moved 300 pips since then:

I am watching out for any alignment and, then, to see if this period results in any new momentum trend. Recent alignments have not held for long enough to develop fully. I'm steering clear of pairs like the E/A and G/A for the moment. I find these pairs tend to be choppy when a classic style 'risk on' or 'risk off' move develops.

Wed 11th Sept (6.30 pm)
USDX: this is coming under a bit of pressure. Watch out if it breaks the monthly pivot and 81.70 level!

There is no further 'red flag' news again tonight for the US session. I'll be interested to see if the 'risk on' drift continues!
S&P500 30 min chart:

Wed 11th Sept (4.20 pm)
Indices: It seems to be a Battle of the Monthly Pivots! The USDX is holding above the monthly pivot and the EURX is bouncing back down from its monthly pivot.

S&P500: I mentioned earlier how this index is butting up against a major S/R level in the 1,685. Also note how price is currently trading outside of the Bollinger band. price often pauses or pull backs to allow these bands to capture price again. Worth noting.

S&P500 30 min chart: this might offer some good trading opportunities during the US session, long or short. That is the beauty of short term charts!

Wed 11th Sept (12.30 pm)
NB: Syria is in the news again today and may impact the USD so, care is needed with trading around these news releases. 

E/U: still poised under the weekly 200 EMA

A/U: pausing under the 0.93 level.

A/U daily: I had noted last week that if price cleared the 0.92 level then the 0.97 might be a target:

A/U daily Ichimoku : note how price is trying to break free from the daily Cloud. The top of the Cloud is some resistance though:  
A/J: paused too:

A/J daily: I remind you here that any continued 'risk on' might see this target the 98 and, then, the 100!

E/A: choppy
Kiwi: slowing a bit too

U/J: hovering above the 100 
G/A: still in the flag

Wed 11th Sept (12 noon): Indices Update!
Indices: The USDX is looking heavy whereas the EURX seems to be taking on the monthly pivot:

Ichimoku Indices: I note that we are close to moving into Ichimoku alignment...again.  This is  the situation where the USDX and EURX are both aligned in one overall direction, 'risk off' or 'risk on' on both the daily and 4hr charts. Previous periods of alignment, that have held, have resulted in trending markets. The USDX is aligned now for 'risk on' and the EURX indices are currently both in the Kumo but heading higher and to 'risk on'. I note that this is evolving as the S&P500 hits key resistance too. Any push to 'risk on' may help to push stocks above this level:

USDX daily: below the Kumo (Cloud)
USDX 4hr: moving below the Cloud

EURX daily: In the Kumo but moving higher. The top of the Cloud may be resistance. 

EURX 4hr: In the Kumo but moving higher. The top of the Cloud may be resistance. 

S&P500: pushing up against the key resistance of 1,685. I have a new TS 'LONG' signal almost forming here BUT I would want to see a daily Close above the 1,685 level before trading this:

S&P500 Is above the Cloud though now: 

Wed 11th Sept (5.20 am)
As suspected, the light news session has seen a drift towards more 'risk on'.
Indices: the USDX is holding above key support but the EURX has broken above one barrier, the 4hr 200 EMA, and is not attemting another barrier, the monthly pivot:
S&P500: drifting higher
S&P500 reaching a key S/R level
S&P500 trading back above the support of the Ichimoku Cloud: 

E/U: still positive but not doing too much
Kiwi: this TS signal is now up 180 pips
G/A: this new signal has given 50 pips BUT still no trend line break just yet!

U/J: a new signal on my 11 pm candle AND a major S/R level break:

Tend line breaks as per weekend write up:
There have been a few major moves that I wrote about over the weekend and suggested traders look out for that have now eveolved. Sadly, for me, these did not produce clean TS signals BUT they have yielded a bucket of pips!
E/J: a major triangle break that has given 100 pips!
A/U: a major triangle break that has given 110 pips!
A/J: a major triangle break that has given 160 pips!

I am travelling interstate today so may not update until the afternoon.

Tuesday 10th Sept (7.20 pm)
EUR/AUD: this is building up to another TS signal but...not quite yet...maybe on the 11 pm candle!

E/J: this has had the triangle break now: 

A/J: this has been a classic 'bull flag' break with a close above a S/R value that has given 100 pips!

Tuesday 10th Sept (7 pm)
U/J: this has had a 4hr close above the 100 level but no TS signal just yet.
S&P500: up in pre-market:

Tuesday 10th Sept (5 pm)
GBP/AUD: I have had a TS signal to SHORT here BUT I would prefer to wait to see the trading channel/neck line break before taking.

Tuesday 10th Sept (4 pm)
S&P500: I don't have a TS 'LONG" signal here just yet AND I'm still watching to see if the 1,685 level will prove tough to pass. Also, check those Bollinger bands...they're a bit mean looking!

Tuesday 10th Sept (3.30 pm)
Indices: these continue to drift in a 'risk on' direction. The lack of news tonight, like last night, might help here again:

USDX: watch out if this falls through the monthly pivot and 81.70 S/R area!

EURX : watch out if price breaks over the 4 hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot!

E/U: has held up but is struggling under the weekly 200 EA 

Kiwi: this TS signal is still limping along too:

A/U: didn't give a clean TS signal BUT has held above the 0.92 now as per w/e discussion.
A/J: didn't give a clean TS signal either BUT has held now above the daily 200 EMA as per w/e discussion.  

Tuesday 10th Sept (8.45 am)
S&P500 weekly: there might be an interesting correlation setting up on the S&P500 weekly chart. There have been two pullbacks recently that followed periods of no chart divergence. There has also been one period of divergence recently BUT that was followed with more of a rally. We currently have another period of divergence on the S&P500. Now, I do know that 'one swallow does not a summer make' do have to wonder....don't you!

S&P500: I'd be looking for another 30 min trade here during the US session if I could:
Tuesday 10th Sept (8.30 am) 
There is no scheduled 'red flag' news for today. Yesterday's 'light' news day resulted in a drift towards 'risk off' so I'd be on the lookout for similar trends during the US session again. Syria related news needs to be considered here though.

Tuesday 10th Sept (7 am) 
S&P500: This has now closed back out of the Cloud, albeit only just!

Tuesday 10th Sept (6 am) 
It is nights like these when I wish I lived in the US trading session zone! Look at the following 30 min trade on the E/U. A text book style, low risk, momentum trend trade after a close above a key S/R level that gave over 70 pips:

The S&P500 drifted higher as thought too. This also gave a great 30 min trade opportunity on the SPY. My TS signal came through when the index was on 1,661. Thus, I would have looked to buy the September $167 Call option:

The September $167 Call option increased by $0.72 cents from $1.14 to $1.86:

The ROIC for this trade is = ($0.72/$1.14) x 100 = 63%.

The Call option would have moved a bit from this open price though by the time of placing the trade but, you get the idea! These trades don't set up as cleanly too often so the opportunities need to be harnessed when they can. I would have have been more suspicious of a good 30 min trend trade setting up here given that the index was in the Cloud on the daily chart. Note though now that it trying to emerge out from the Cloud:

Price is still above the support of the daily trend line and might be trying to makes it way back to test the 1,685 level. This will be a major test for the index. Note the upper Bollinger band descending down on this level too!

EURX: It looks like the EURX has made a bullish flag break and has held above the key support of 108.5:

EURX Ichimoku:  This index is trying to push up through the Cloud on both the 4hr and daily time frames. Success with this venture would help to shift to 'risk on':

USDX: this has slipped from the key S/R level of 82.59 to test the next lower key S/R level of 81.70.  

USDX Ichimoku: The USDX has also now fallen down through the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr chart. This was another reason to look for 30 min trades overnight! Price has yet to have a 4hr candle close below the Cloud yet though. Price is below the Cloud on the daily chart so, if the 4hr closes and hold below the Cloud, then this would support further 'risk on' trading.

I'm keeping an eye on the Cloud charts for any new alignment.

Currency Pairs:
The E/U gave a new TS signal on my 11 pm candle that has already yielded up to 70 pips. This signal also came after a close above the 1.32 level.....confluence!

The E/J is up at the edge of the triangle but no TS signal just yet:

A/U: will probably have a bullish daily close above the 0.92: 

A/J: will probably have a bullish daily close above the daily 200 EMA:

E/A: this TS signal has closed off now after 440 pips! 

Cable: bullish

Kiwi:  This TS signal is still going AND it will probably have a bullish daily close above the 0.80: 
U/J: choppy

GBP/AUD: still trading in a flag:

AUD/NZD: channel trading still on the daily chart:

Monday 9th Sept (7.50 pm)
A/J: this looks like it's trying to gather strength to launch up through the daily 200 EMA. No luck so far though:

Monday 9th Sept (7.10 pm)
A/U: this has now closed above the 0.92 on the 4hr chart. My TS signal took too many candles to evolve so, technically, this isn't a valid signal. Some would look to LONG from 0.92 here now and some will wait to see any daily candle close above this level:

A/U Ichimoku: I note there has been a bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross here but this is below the Cloud so, technically, it is deemed a 'weak' signal:

Kiwi: this TS signal is still going AND price has closed above the key 0.80 level on the 4 hr charts:

EUR/AUD: This TS signal is still limping along too:

E/U: this is close to forming a LONG signal and I'm looking for any close above the 1.32 level:

Monday 9th Sept (4.45 pm)
GBP/AUD: I skipped this pair in my w/e write up BUT another trader just mentioned it so I thought I'd take a peek. I did post a chart recently when this broke through the daily support trend line. Price is still trading below this support but looks to be trading within a bit of a flag pattern on the 4hr chart. This could be viewed as a 'Bull Flag' for sure:
GA 4hr

PS: it could also be a huge H&S here too on the 4hr! With the bottom trend line being the neck line and, for once, the neck line is sloping the right way!

GA daily

When I look back at the weekly chart though I see that there is a lot more scope for possible pullback. The level that jumps out at me here is around the 1.6 level. This is the area of the 50% fib from the last major swing low, the region of the major channel break as well as being near the daily and 4hr 200 EMA.
GA weekly 
GA monthly

As per usual, I'll keep an open mind and watch for trend line breaks though and look for a new TS trend signal.

Monday 9th Sept (3.20 pm)
Not much change so little to report. A fairly quiet Asian session. There isn't any US red flag data scheduled for the US session so stocks might drift higher in a 'no news is good news' kind of way. Check out the spikes from last Friday's NFP!

Monday 9th Sept (11.30 am)
Indices: these have both opened with a bit of a gap up! The USDX is still below the S/R value of 82.59 and the EURX is still above the 108.5:

E/J: as suspected, price continued to bounce off trend line support and this TS signal has closed off: 

E/U: trading under a bear trend line for now: 

A/U: has yet to close above the 0.92 level:  

A/J: This gapped at market open and has broken out of the flag pattern. The gap might need to fill before we see any more upward momentum. This has yet to close above the daily 200 EMA: 

Kiwi: This hasn't closed above the 0.80: 

EUR/AUD: might be heading for a channel break here: 

U/J: no close above 100 yet: 

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