Monday, August 19, 2013

Trading Week 19/08/13

Friday 23rd Aug (8.30 am)
U/J: this TS signal is still going too and this pair also looks quite bullish as it approaches an upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle:
U/J weekly
U/J daily
U/J 4hr

Silver and Gold: both of these are looking bullish as they seem to be attempting triangle breaks. The daily charts of both of these look like 'bull flag' patterns are forming. Also, TS signals look like they are building up here on the 4hr charts:
Silver 4hr
Silver daily
Gold 4hr
Gold daily

Friday 23rd Aug (7.50 am)
E/U: this is still chopping around. I've adjusted the upper triangle trend line from the smaller of the two symmetrical triangles. Price bounced off the Ichimoku 4 hr Cloud overnight:
E/U weekly
E/U daily
E/U 4hr
 E/U 4hr Ichimoku

E/J: this signal is up and price is sitting at a triangle breakout trend line and looking quite bullish still:

A/U: this is looking more and more like forming up into the inverse H&S on the daily chart. price is back to loitering near the key S/R level of 0.90:

A/J: price here is back to the safety of the 0.89 level:

Kiwi: this has continued to hold off the bounce from the weekly 200 EMA:

Friday 23rd Aug (7 am)
I'm back in at hospital and will update in sections.

USDX: this has stalled at the previous S/R level of 81.70. Look at the daily chart below and you can see how significant this level has been over recent times:
USDX 4 hr
USDX daily
EURX: this has managed to hold up above the weekly support:
EURX 4hr

EURX daily:

S&P500 Ichimoku: this has had a bounce of the Ichimoku daily Cloud:

S&P500 daily: the daily trend line is still in tact. I would be waiting to short here until this daily trend line and the Ichimoku Cloud is broken.

S&P500 30 min: this gave another great opportunity to trade short term off the 30 min charts. A great SPY Call trade for sure. 

Thursday 22 nd Aug (7.10 pm)
E/J: this has given a long signal on my 7pm candle:
U/J: this TS signal is still positive for now:

No other TS signals for now.

I'll be back in at the hospital early so may not update until later in the morning.

Thursday 22 nd Aug (6.35 pm)
BTW: The index charts are back aligned for 'risk on' across the 4hr and daily charts. I keep suspecting that one of these times a new trending period will arrest and take hold!

Thursday 22 nd Aug (6.30 pm)
E/J: this is looking perky and a triangle breakout is looming!

Thursday 22 nd Aug (5.30 pm)
Just home from another day in ICU. I'm back there early tomorrow as well. News releases continue to interfere with technical patterns. Some positive Chinese PMI data gave a big helping hand to the AUD. Fundamental events seem to be having much more impact on price action of late...or so it seems to me!

USDX: this is still bouncing off support:

EURX: this is still holding above the level of the weekly support trend line. Triangle breaks aren't much help here in the midst of so much 'news':

E/U: I've read that some are seeing a bearish 'double top' here on the E/U daily chart (see chart below). I can see it too BUT I'm not seeing a lot of momentum to short here just yet. I still don't have a TS signal to short here on the 4hr. That's not to say that one won'y form up later BUT it ain't there now!

E/U Ichimoku: price is still above the Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart which, for now, is still bullish. Price is nearing support on the 4hr Ichimoku though:
Cloud 4hr
Cloud daily:

A/U: the positive Chinese data has this back above the 0.90 level now.
The daily chart still looks like a bullish inverse H&S could be in the making!

EUR/AUD: the TS signal has closed off here:

Kiwi: this has bounced off the weekly 200 EMA on the Chinese data it seems too:

U/J: I see that TS signal came through on my 3pm candle. Price hasn't moved too far though yet:

A/J: this signal closed off too:

G/U: I have no idea how to read this pair at the moment!  I clearly need some of the meds from ICU to help me here!

Gold and Silver: I really think the best that can be said for these two is that they've chopped sideways pretty much this week:

S&P500: this is up in pre market

Thusrday 22 nd Aug (8.25 am)
A late update to day as I've been in at the Hospital with my son. I'm actually typing this from ICU!

Mixed signals from the Fed and some positive data had the indices, and many other instruments, spiking a bit. Trading, based on technical signals, is that much harder when news releases such as FOMC carry so much influence. We still have Jackson Hole ahead of us too!

USDX daily: has bounced off the support of that 50% fib level; the 80.70:
USDX 4hr
 EURX: note the spikes:

S&P500 30 min: this was very choppy overnight.

S&P500 Ichimoku: Price is getting down to the near the Cloud now:

S&P500 daily: the daily support trend line is still below current price and may offers some support: 

S&P500 monthly chart: still not back to the previous breakout level just yet:

E/U: has retreated from the 1.34 level on a stronger USD. Interestingly, I don't have a TS 'sell' signal here at all!

A/U: this has continued to fall after that earlier TS 'sell' signal. Price has also now fallen back below the key 0.90 level. Many traders will be shorting this from 0.90 on any pullback. Any bounce from here though could still be viewed with some bullish sentiment as a possible inverse H&S:

EUR/AUD: this TS signal is still going but not too far or fast!

Kiwi: this has taken a hit following NZD Reserve Bank news from earlier this week:

U/J: this has bounced back off the 0.97.I don't have a TS on this either:

Overall, the S&P500 is approaching support and I don't have any new momentum signals towards 'risk off'. Jackson Hole may be causing some caution still.

Wednesday 21 st Aug (4.50 pm)
USDX: this is trading below the weekly trend line but you can see from the daily and weekly charts how price has bounced off the 50 % fib level from the last major swing high. This 80.70 level has been a key level over recent months:

Wednesday 21 st Aug (6 am)
Index breakouts? the USDX has broken down below support and the EURX has bounced off support and broken through a bear trend line:

 E/U: has broken out of its triangle and above support of the psychological 1.34 level now:
Most of this action came in the London and US session:
A/U: this short signal closed off and it never broke below the 0.90 level or below the trend line anyway
A/J: signal still ok but you would be out of this if stop went to entry:
E/A: signal still open here for now

My son has surgery today. I may not update much.

Ichimoku Alignment: One final note though. The USDX and EURX index charts are aligned for 'risk on' now on the 4hr and daily Ichimoku charts. This kicked in overnight. This momentum may stall it has done a bit lately or it may be the start of new trending markets. I'm on the lookout for new TS signals aligned with this trend. 

Tuesday 20th Aug (7.05 pm)
USDX: this is currently falling through the weekly support. I need to see where this candle closes though:

EURX: still triangle bound:
EUR/AUD: this has given a new signal on the 7pm candle:
A/U: a weak signal has formed here BUT I'd prefer to wait for any short until after a close and hold below the 0.90 level. Also, if the USDX continues to fall then this might help to support the Aussie:

BTW: I'd have stop to entry on the A/J in case it reverses too!

No signals formed up on the Kiwi, U/J, Silver or Gold.

E/U: no TS signal here BUT it is testing that bear trend line again!

Tuesday 20th Aug (5.20 pm)
A/U: The bottom trend line of my Cup & handle pattern is currently under pressure.
A/U 4 hr
A/U daily: the level to watch after that if this trend line fails is the 0.90 level. This has been previous S/R. Also, any respect of this previous S/R level would see price shaping up into another bullish pattern; a bullish inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. So, some levels to watch out for! Might not be as likely of Gold/Silver keep tumbling though:

Tuesday 20th Aug (5 pm)
A/J: a sell signal formed up on my 3 pm candle:

A signal is trying to form up on the A/U but hasn't quite just yet. Ditto for the EUR/AUD and Kiwi.

U/J: there has been a trend line break but no signal yet. Clearly, there is some Yen strength tonight!
Silver and Gold: there have been trend line breaks on both and a TS signal is trying to form up on Gold:

My son has surgery tomorrow. I'll struggle to keep pace with charts then tomorrow.

Tuesday 20th Aug (2.15 pm)
S&P500: This is still trading above the Ichimoku Cloud but the cloud is actually increasing in dimension. This may, thus, offer greater support to price if the index gets down that far:

I did get a signal to SHORT this index last Friday but price is still trading above a daily support trend line for the time being. This support is roughly in line with the Ichimoku Cloud!

Tuesday 20th Aug (11.45 am)
USDX: this is still planking. I'm wondering if it will stay like this until the end of the week and the Jackson Hole meeting? Ben Bernanke isn't even going to be there, or so I have read!
Silver and Gold have closed off their TS signals BUT they both look like they could just be forming up into Bull Flags:

No new trend or TS signals just yet.

Tuesday 20th Aug (6.20 am)
I noted on the w/e how I think a big move is building. I'm still thinking this is the case. The indices are still poised right near major S/R levels. Look at the USDX! It is literally planking above the major weekly support trend line. The EURX is a little more choppy above its support:

S&P500: as I suspected and mentioned last night...this gave a great breakout trend trade off the 30 min charts during the US session: 

The open TS signals on the Kiwi, Silver and Gold have now closed off:

E/U: still chopping under a resistance trend line:

A/U: chopping in the 'handle' of my 'Cup & Handle': 

U/J: holding above support: 
E/J: that 130 level is like a magnet!
A/J: as is the 0.89 for the A/J

E/A: holding above support BUT no new TS signal to LONG here...yet!

I don't have any new momentum signals here at all just now. The ADX/DMI are low on most currencies and this is a good situation as it better allows the identification of new momentum once, and when, it eventually develops.

I'm back in at the hospital today so may not update much.

Monday 19th Aug ( 8.10 pm)
EURX: Hooley dooley....

Monday 19 th Aug ( 7.10 pm)
USDX: just a thought. Was looking back to see when this index traded down near the weekly support trend line. The other couple of times it bounced back up fairly quickly. This time it's hanging near support for much longer. 

That old song...'knock three times'....just came in to my head. Support just might struggle this time around!

Monday 19 th Aug ( 7 pm)
I'm just back from the hospital but will be in there again tomorrow.

Indices: The USDX is still planking above the weekly support trend line.
EURX: still triangle bound:
The open TS signals have kicked on some more;
Kiwi: now given up to 120 pips!  Note how it has cleared the 0.81 level too. That's a bullish least I think so!
Silver: has given 350!
Gold: up to 400!

Other points to note:
A/U: trying to break free from the 0.92 level. This might wait to see which way the S&P500 heads once the US session opens: 

S&P500: pretty flat so far in pre-market trade. This might offer up a great 30 min SPY or Futures trend trade (breakout trade) later tonight...when the US market opens.

Monday 19 th Aug ( 4 pm)
We thought our son would be coming home today but there have been some complications.  I've been in at the hospital all day and I'm still here, without my laptop......just an iPad. Thus, no trading update for now.

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