Monday, August 5, 2013

Trading Week 05/08/13

Friday 9th Aug (8.45 pm)
A/U: gives 140 pips. This might stall or even turn at the 4hr 200 EMA:

A/J: not going too far:

E/A: The H&S has given 140 pips so far: 

Friday 9th Aug (5.20 pm)
Two currency TS signals are open: A/U and A/J:
A/U: has yielded 120 pips:

A/J: up about 50 pips. It might be on target to strike at the 89 level: 

Friday 9th Aug (3 pm)
USDX: struggling at the major weekly support trend line:

GBP/AUD: a new 'Flag' pattern:

AUD/NZD: channel still holding on the daily chart: 

Friday 9th Aug (1.40 pm)
EURX: I've been reviewing my trend lines here and have adjusted them to reflect latest S/R levels. Price is starting to get squeezed here!
EURX 4hr
EURX daily

EURX weekly: price action is getting squeezed between the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA and the support of the weekly support trend line. I'm keeping an open mind here and watching for a break out, either up or down!

U/J: price has tested the 97 level and bounced back down: 

A/J: might be getting dragged down by the sentiment on the U/J. The E/J is down too: 

Friday 9th Aug (7.30 am)
USDX: this index closed right on top of the major support trend line!

I'll be keen to see where the weekly candle closes: 

Friday 9th Aug (7.30 am)
USDX: this has drifted to be just below the major support trend line but the daily candle has yet to close here on Admiral platform:
EURX:  drifting higher:

S&P500: no signal evolved on market open so that is why it is worth waiting without a forward order! 

A/J: I have a new signal here:

Silver: this gave a new TS signal on my 11 pm candle

Gold:  this gave a new TS signal on my 3 am candle

A/U: this TS signal has given 100 pips: 

U/J: this triangle break trade gave 190 pips. The 0.97 is a major level and price seems to be drifitng back to test this:
U/J 4hr:
U/J daily:

E/U: drifting higher
E/A: not much happening

Kiwi: back above the 0.80 now 

Kiwi daily: this is still looking like a bullish set up:

G/A: just watching it:

Thursday 8th Aug (9.15 pm)
SPY Trade: It looks like it could be setting up for a good night for a SPY trade! I'd want to see how the US markets open though:

The $170 Aug Call is @ 0.70 cents. 
Thursday 8th Aug (5.25 pm)
USDX: The USDX is back down testing a major, weekly support trend line that has been in play since Aug 2011. A failure of this support trend line to hold the USD might lead to a significant 'risk on' style rally. Respect of this level though would most likely see 'risk off'. 

USDX weekly
USDX daily
USDX 4hr

Currently, the S&P500 seems to be bouncing off the 1,685 level, the E/U off the weekly 200 EMA and the Aussie off the 0.90 level. These are levels to watch in the coming sessions.

Thursday 8th Aug (5.10 pm)
E/U: The triangle break has held an a TS signal is starting to form up here:

Thursday 8th Aug (2.20 pm)
A/U: the signal has held through the data:
E/A: a H&S pattern evolving here?

S&P500 daily: the 1,685 has now been tested. Where to from here?

S&P500 monthly : this 'top' still looks bullish to me. The previous highs of 2000 and 2007 were at the 1,577 area. I would have expected this region to be tested again too perhaps.

Thursday 8th Aug (10.20 am)
A/J: this signal has closed off:

A/U: I have a new TS signal on the A/U but I'd be wary around the AUD and CNY data releases today: 

Thursday 8th Aug (10 am)
E/U: You will be aware that I have had a bullish 'inverse Head and Shoulder' pattern forming up on my monthly charts for some time now. It is starting to look more interesting as time passes:

Thursday 8th Aug (8 am)
AUD Employment and Chinese trade balance data might get the Aussie moving. Due out in a few hours:

Thursday 8th Aug (7.50 am)
I'm tethering through my phone....again!
USDX: slipping
EURX: hanging near the monthly pivot
S&P500 30 min: choppy

S&P500 daily: I was expecting the 1,685 level to be tested. This happened last night. What next? 

E/U: triangle break but no TS signal
E/J: triangle break has given over 100 pips
A/U: the slide with the USD has helped boost the Aussie
A/J: stalling
E/A: flag break BUT no TS signal
G/U: no TS signal here
Kiwi 4 hr: weaker USD has helped this too

Kiwi daily: I do find it ironic that the NZ 'milk scare' foiled my 'Cup and Handle' pattern! A close back above 0.80 would be bullish though: 

U/J: the triangle break alone has given over 170 pips! 

G/A: flag break BUT no TS signal

Silver: boosted by weaker USD
Gold: ditto!

Thursday 8th Aug (7.30 am)
I'm having wifi trouble with weak signal so I'm not able to load charts. The USD has continued to slide though. I'll try to sort and load charts later.

Wednesday 7th Aug (7.40 pm)
E/U: a new triangle
E/J: triangle break alone has given 100 pips 
A/U: rejected the 0.90

A/J: triangle break and TS signal have given 90 pips 
E/A: flag break but no TS signal yet:

G/U: a TS signal trying to form up. Might tale the 11pm candle 

U/J: triangle break has given over 100 pips 
GBP/AUD: still in the flag pattern:

Silver: a new triangle break down 
Gold: decline continues: 

Wednesday 7th Aug (3.50 pm)
YEN: it has been all Yen action today and triangle break downs:

A/J: this gave a TS signal as well as a triangle break:

USDX: still failing to get back up over the 81.70 though....even with all the tapering talk!

Wednesday 7th Aug (12.50 pm)
A/U: another form of a 'bear flag'?
E/A: bull flag starting?

U/J: This has had a triangle break but the 97 is offering some support:

Gold: triangle break continues:

Silver: testing triangle support: 

Wednesday 7th Aug (12.40 pm)
A/U: This TS signal didn't get going as price has so far failed to close above the 0.90 level:

Wednesday 7th Aug (11 am)
Aussie Stocks: I have reviewed the two main Aussie stock indices on my Aussie Stocks page.

A/J: I have a new sell signal here as well as a triangle break. There seems to be a bit of Yen strength about:

Wednesday 7th Aug (7.30 am)
A/J: triangle or 'Bear Flag'?

Wednesday 7th Aug (7 am)
It seems like another case of good news being bad news last night. Positive US data has resumed worries about an exit from QE and this sent stocks lower overnight. Regardless of the 'whys and wherefores' I am expecting the 1,685, and even the 1,600, to be tested on the S&P500 before any continued upmove:
S&P500 30 min:
S&P500 daily:

USDX: I find it odd that even with QE exit fears that the USD hasn't moved much higher. Price is now back below the key S/R level of 81.70 :

EURX: this is ticking back up too

E/U: has broken above the weekly 200 EMA. No TS signal yet though but price is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the hourly, 4hr and daily chart:

A/U: has not closed above the 0.90. The weekly pivot is here now too:

EUR/AUD: this TS signal hasn't gone too far and it may end up being another 'bull flag' forming! Look out for trend line breaks then:

GBP/AUD: same here....another 'bull flag' forming?
U/J: triangle break:
Silver: drifting lower

Gold: Tapering chatter hurting Gold and this has now had a triangle break and is back below the $1,300 level: 

Kiwi: important data out here in just over one hour. Price is struggling at the 4hr 200 EMA and monthly pivot:
E/J daily: triangle trading:

Tuesday 6th Aug (8.40 pm)
A/U: This did end up forming a long TS signal BUT I'd be waiting to see if it can close above the 0.90 level first:

E/A: this has given a new TS short: 

I was at a talk tonight where the presenter uses the Ichimoku BUT on the 1hr and even lower charts. Well, just FYI, I do note that the EUR/AUD is now below its hourly Cloud! We shall see how this evolves!

E/U: knockin' on heaven's door? NB: Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud on the hourly, 4hr and daily time frame! Confluence!

Tuesday 6th Aug (3.50 pm)
A/U: This is trying to form a LONG signal. I will miss the 7pm candle update though as I'm at a trading meeting. The 0.90 level will be huge resistance and a lot of traders will be planning to short from there:

Stocks: Aug: I have updated my Stocks:Aug page.

Tuesday 6th Aug (12.50 pm)
Stocks: Aug: I have updated my Stocks:Aug page.

AUD: I am wondering if the surprise might be that the RBA keeps interest rates on hold! There is a flag in play on the 4hr and, if interest rates are dropped then, this might evolve into another 'Bear Flag'!

E/U: not doing too much at all!

Tuesday 6th Aug (10.30 am)
S&P500: I've been looking over my various charts for this index. Price is still trading above some key levels and I would expect a test of two of these. I would expect a test of:
  • the psychological level of 1,600.
  • the previous high at around the 1,685 level.
Price is also still trading well above the Ichimoku Cloud BUT the Cloud is rather thin below price action and would not offer a whole of support if tested:

S&P500 weekly:
S&P500 daily: 
S&P500 Ichimoku Daily:

Tuesday 6th Aug (7.15 am)
There hasn't been much action overnight. the USDX has been pretty flat but the EURX has slipped a bit. There is AUD trade balance and interest rate news out later today which could see some movement with these pairs so, be careful:
S&P500: pretty flat 

GBP/AUD: is the only TS signal that is still open. It has yielded up to 400 pips! 

A/U: TS signal closed after giving up to 350 pips! 

EUR/AUD:  TS signal closed after giving up to 500 pips! 

E/U: still loitering under the weekly 200 EMA. I've adjusted support trend lines here. It looks to me like it might be forming up into a bullish ascending triangle. Trend line breaks, either way, will be some guide here though:
U/J: still triangle trading 

Kiwi: trying to recover after the 'milk' saga: 

Silver and Gold are still triangle bound. I've relaxed trend lines here too to capture all the 4hr movements: 

Gold: this is back to hovering above the major support of $1,300: 

Monday 5th Aug (5 pm)
The NZ milk scare has ruined the potential 'Cup and Handle' pattern:
The USDX hasn't moved too far yet:
EURX is testing the broken trading channel
E/U: still loitering just under the weekly 200 EMA:
U/J: still bound by the triangle for now:
AUD/NZD: I had adjusted this chart over the w/e but didn't post it. It looks better now though!

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