Monday, January 21, 2013

Trading Week 21/01/13

Monday 28/1 (2.30 pm) TS signals deliver 790 pips from last Thursday!
Just home and rather annoyed. I've missed moves from my TS signals totaling, so far, 790 pips!

E/J 290 pips
A/U 100 pips 
EUR/AUD 260 pips 
U/J 140 pips 

This is another amazing haul from my TradeSpotting system.

I'm going to go over the charts and do some analysis before posting a new thread for this coming week.

Saturday 26th Australia Day

My TS signals have delivered hundreds of pips! This is another amazing haul!

I can't see levels exactly but it seems the following have been achieved:

EUR /AUD up over 200, E/J up over 200 and  U/J up over 100! The A/U is up too and I'm sure the E/U would have kicked in too.

This is great for my TS system as a whole but a little frustrating for me. I didn't enter these signals as I'm away without my laptop and was not in a position to mange or even view these trades.

This was all on my mind whilst trying to line dance at 7 am this morning! A least that was my reason for my poor performance.

I'm back in Sydney
 on Monday

Friday 25th (6 am) TS manages 160 pips in a choppy week!
Well, it should be do as I say not do as I do! The two signals from yesterday have yielded 160 pips between them.
A/U 50+ pips:
EUR/AUD 110 pips

I have had new signals overnight on my 1am candles on  the E/J and U/J:

The E/U has closed above the weekly 200 EMA but I don't have a signal there just yet but one is trying to form: 

The USDX continues to chop sideways 

The EURX is up: 

I am away until Monday.

Thursday 24th (9.40 pm)
The signal on the A/U is still going but I'd have stop to entry here ASAP. I have had a new TS signal on the EUR/AUD. The only problem here, though, is that this pair has already moved more than yesterday's range and almost as much as the range over the recent 5 and 10 days. This is not a good position to enter a new trade from. Also, the lack of move on the E/U concerns me and I am heading off early tomorrow morning. All in all, not a great set up for my liking but, time will tell!

This week has been choppy which hasn't surprised me given we slipped back into Ichimoku divergence. 

Thursday 24th (5 pm)
The EURX has closed back above the weekly 200 EMA which I consider bullish for further 'risk on'. Interestingly though, the USDX is rising too. 'Alice in Wonderland' stuff here for sure:

The only new TS signal that I have on my 5pm candle close is a 'risk off' SHORT on the A/U. I'm loathe to take this though given the lack of clear market direction and, also, the fact that I am still seeing Ichimoku divergence on the indices and on the A/U itself. Gold has been falling a bit lately and might be dragging the Aussie down with it. Gold is now sitting near the monthly pivot and daily 200 EMA. These may act to help stall the slide in Gold and, thus, the fall in the A/U.

I'm looking at the EUR/AUD and I don't have a signal there yet either:

I will wait, patiently, until there is a clear new market direction.

BTW: I am away for the Australia Day long w/e. I leave tomorrow morning, Friday, and won't be back until Monday (Public Holiday). I will update my blog on my return.
Thursday 24th (1.10 pm)
The indices are still flat. The Chinese PMI data was good so I'm not sure that the Apple negative contagion will infect currencies. The A/U is down BUT no TS SHORT signal there at the moment.

Thursday 24th (9.30 am)
Apple is getting hammered in after hours trading. It is in free fall and currently down $50 to  $464.

No new trends just yet but I'm waiting to see Chinese red flag data at 12.45 pm.

Thursday 24th (7.40 am)
The EURX is making another push up towards the weekly 200 EMA. I would see a close back above this level as bullish for 'risk on':

Apple reports in under an hour and I'll be watching to see if any positive news from there feeds into  'risk on'.

Thursday 24th (6.20 am)
The Cable is looking vulnerable again:

Thursday 24th (5.50 am)
Not much happening. Maybe they're all waiting to see how Apple went:

E/U: continues to chop sideways
MCD: My bought $95 Call @ $1.80 can now be sold for $1.94. Doesn't sound like much of a again but that is a 7.77% gain in just one trading session!

DEL: Bought Call now up 226%:     May $11@ 0.69. Now @ $2.25
MGM: Bought Call now up 46%:     June $11 @ $1.60. Now @ $2.35
AMAT: Bought call now up 92%:     July $12 @ 0.60. Now @ $1.15

AVP: Last night also sold Feb $17 Call @ 0.50 cents.

Wednesday 23rd (9 pm)
The indices are seeing some 'risk on' movement but I'd want to see the EURX close back above the weekly 200 EMA first before getting too excited:


Cable: There has been some positive GBP data tonight so this is giving the cable a boost off the 1.58 support level:

MCD: This has had a bullish breakout recently. I've put an order in to buy the June $95 Call @ $1.80
MCD weekly
MCD daily

The Low VIX and volatility has meant that Option selling premium hasn't been that lucrative lately. The upside to this though is that Call options are, in some cases, a little cheaper to buy. Not so for Caterpillar Calls though; they were too dear for my liking:

Wednesday 23rd (5 pm)
There is some Yen strength appearing BUT I didn't get clean TS signals to SHORT any of these. I'm not really prepared to SHORT Yen pairs at the moment still anyway:

There is still no clear trend to be gleaned from the indices. Both seem under pressure as I type:

The broader markets were pretty happy with earnings from Google and IBM but they might be waiting to see how Apple fares with its earnings after US market close on Wednesday.

Wednesday 23rd (1 pm)
The AUD data was worse than expected so I didn't take the LONG. 

Both indices are stuck around their weekly pivot/weekly 200 EMA:

I'm still waiting for a clear new trend to emerge. You can't surf without waves and you can't trend trade without a trend!

Cable: The G/U is holding some interest for me. The G/U is struggling with a few issues; weak economy and rumour/talk of a possible EU exit. The Cable is currently sitting just above a major S/R level in that of 1.58. A breach of this level would have the next stop, possibly, around 100 + pips away at the monthly bull trend line. I'm watching this pair for a new TS SHORT and break of the 1.58 level:

Wednesday 23rd (8.50 am)
The markets liked the Google and IBM earnings data and this has helped the Aussie and Kiwi. I'm waiting for red flag AUD data, that is due out at 11.30, before deciding to trade the A/U LONG signal.

Wednesday 23rd (6.15 am)
The USDX has chopped sideways around the weekly pivot but the EURX has slipped below the weekly 200 EMA. US stocks are up but waiting for some big companies to report after market close:

The USDX choppiness has put the 4hr chart back into the Cloud. Thus, the charts are back to being divergent.  It won't take much of a move to put the charts back into alignment for 'risk on' though.

The currencies have been fairly choppy as well. The A/U and Kiwi TS signals are both sitting near entry. I'd hang off from these for the time being.

A/U: hanging near the safety of the monthly trend line and upper trend line of the trading channel:

E/U: hanging just under the weekly 200 EMA

E/J: stuck in a trading channel

U/J: looking a bit bearish. Has broken below the trading channel and under the daily support trend line

Google and IBM are just two that report after market close today. Their results could set the mood for future trading. Apple reports tomorrow.

I'm waiting for a clearer trading path. Patience!

BTW: I'm glad I don't live in Japan! Check this out.....From Forex Live:

Japanese finance minister won’t win the elderly vote next time
Written by Adam Button    January 22, 2013 at 19:04 GMT 
Former Prime Minister and current Fin Min Taro Aso (who is 72-years-old) had some downright nasty comments directed at the elderly today:
“I would wake up feeling increasingly bad knowing that [treatment] was all being paid for by the government,” he said, noting the “several tens of millions of yen” care for the dying costs a month per patient.
“The problem won’t be solved unless you let them hurry up and die.”
Japan is a demographic disaster.

Tuesday 22nd (9.15 pm)
There has been some choppy action on the indices over the last 2 hours. I do have very new signals on the A/U and Kiwi though.

I'd really like to see where the next EURX 4hr candle is going to close though. This is a while away;

Tuesday 22nd (7 pm)
My index charts have just had their 4hr candle update. These charts are from Admiral Markets and are different from my currency pair charts. The Index charts now show that we have Ichimoku alignment across BOTH the USDX and EURX on the 4hr and daily time frames that provide optimum conditions for 'risk on'. 

I will be watching my currency charts at 9pm for their 4hr candle close to assess for any new TS signals.

Tuesday 22nd (5.30 pm)
YEN article: This is worth reading:
This puts today's lack of any rally into context.

Tuesday 22nd (5 pm)
The USDX is pushing down but I don't have any TS signals just yet:

Gold is very close to forming a signal though.
Tuesday 22nd (1 pm)
No new TS signals. No real BoJ impact yet.

Tuesday 22nd (11.15 am)
Back from the beach but still not a whole lot happening. Waiting on possible BoJ inspired moves.

Tuesday 22nd (6 am)
The indices haven't done too much but that was to be expected given the US holiday:

This pause has been GREAT as it it has given some pullback enabling new signals a chance to form. I don't have any TS signals yet but the following pairs are setting up nicely, for the time being at least. There may be the confluence of trend line breaks as well. Also, the longer the EURX sits and holds above the weekly 200 EMA then the more likely it will be to keep holding on from there:

A/U: in a trading channel and just under the major monthly bear trend line: 

Monday 21st (9 pm)
The indices are still supporting 'risk on' for the time being. I don't have any new TS signals though just yet:

Monday 21st (4.40 pm)
No TS signals. I'm out at a Charting meeting for the next few hours.

Monday 21st (12.10 pm)
The indices are not giving away too many clues just yet but the EURX is still holding above the weekly 200 EMA for now:

The Yen pairs are down meaning the TS signals from last week will most likely close off when the 1pm candle updates.

Monday 21st (6.50 am)
I'll be playing things very carefully to start the week. There is a holiday in the US today and there is also more press surrounding David Cameron's supposed speech concerning the future of Britain within the EU. This uncertainty will possibly feed 'risk off' for Euro and GBP pairs. The E/U and G/U early quotes have them opening the week lower. There are also Eurogroup meetings scheduled  for Monday. Given how Juncker spooked the Euro last week I'm thinking I might wait until at least Tuesday before taking any further trades..

From Forex Live:

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