Saturday 22nd (5.40am)
Well, we're all still here. I don't know who is more upset...technical chartists or the Mayans. I have to admit that when I woke to see the USDX I thought that things would be a lot worse across the currency pairs. Surprisingly not. In fact, I don't have any TS signals on the 4hr chart of note and that tells me the markets aren't really bearish. That is for the time being at least but this will no doubt change if a Fiscal Cliff deal doesn't eventuate.
The S&P500 took a tumble when the House vote was vetoed but has held up pretty well since then:
Ditto for the Dow Jones:
The EUR/AUD signal is the only one still going and hit the 300 level overnight:
The G/U was the only pair to give a TS signal so far BUT, with a warning. This came after a large candle move and I am always cautious with these types of signals:
Friday 21st (11 pm)
The USDX isn't giving away any clues as to what it's up to:
The 'risk canary' fell off its perch, albeit briefly, but might be scrambling back up on it:
No clear TS signals anywhere. The A/U and Kiwi are down, and have been for some sessions now BUT neither of them produced a clean, well defined TS signal on the 4hr. That happens sometimes.
Friday 21st (6.20 pm)
I know we've had a bullish break up through a bear trend line BUT...the USDX 4hr chart could also be printing a Bear Flag pattern:
Asian markets were down today though and Europe is opening lower. US pre-markets are way down too.
The 'risk canary' hasn't dropped off its perch yet:
I'm waiting for a clear sign of the next new momentum and for new TS signals.
Friday 21st (5 pm)
No new TS signals so far as yet, even with this momentum shift.
The A/J or, as Dean Malone refers to it, 'the risk canary in the coal mine', has actually pulled back up to close above recent support. This is close to forming a TS signal to SHORT but hasn't quite evolved yet:
Friday 21st (4.30 pm)
The USDX has had a break above the daily trend line:
The EURX has had a flag breakdown:
Stocks have been hit hard by the Vetoed Fiscal Cliff vote. Both the Dow and S&P500 above their daily Clouds for now but, then, for how much longer? What a difference a day makes!:
Currencies have shifted to 'risk off':
E/U flag break down
E/J back below the 111 level
A/U A break below the daily bull trend line and 4hr 200 EMA:
A/J: heading for a break below recent support:
Swissie: reversing?
Kiwi: also broken below a daily bull support trend line
The E/A: fairly flat
No TS signals yet though. I'll update after the 5pm candle close.
Friday 21st (1 pm)
I think everyone is a bit rattled by this latest development or, rather, lack of development. There is talk now of Fiscal Cliff talks resuming on Dec 27th. I'll see how the ISDX and EURX index 4hr candles close to gauge any new momentum.
Friday 21st (12.20 pm)
The postponed 'Fiscal Cliff' vote has worried markets and sent them into 'risk off' momentum. Further action delayed now until after Christmas.
I'll wait and see whether this move has follow through.
Friday 21st (10 am)
Markets drifting. Fiscal Cliff Plan B being voted on in 30 min.
Friday 21st (8 am)
S&P500 closes higher with a bullish engulfing candle but still just below the key 78.6% fib retrace level of 1443:
Friday 21st (5.30 am)
Markets have been choppy amid ongoing Fiscal Cliff jitters. The USDX has been held below the trend line and the EURX now looks to be forming another flag pattern:
Stocks have been choppy too:
The E/U is trading within a flag of sorts too:
The A/U is still held by a daily bull trend line that has been in place for some time. I've removed other smaller trend lines:
A/U daily
Swissie is non-commital
Silver weekly: Silver is hitting a major support level and, if this is respected, then the cup and handle could still play out
Gold weekly: ditto for Gold
The Dow is still bullish on the daily Ichimoku chart:
The S&P500 is still bullish too but has that 78.6% fib level to hurdle yet:
The S&P500 weekly pattern is still holding bullish too:
So, for now, this choppy action has meant there are no TS signals on the 4hr charts. That is great as it has kept me out of bad whip saw action trades. I'm watching and waiting for the next round of signals though, LONG or SHORT, I'll trade with the trend!
Thursday 20th (9.15 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e! Over 1700 pips from last 2 weeks!
It seems that there is a shift back to 'risk on' again at the moment:
The EUR/AUD signal is the only one still currently open:
Some new 'risk on' TS signals are trying to build. The E/U might build again during my night. I am still LONG this pair from the previous TS signal:
The Swissie might kick on again:
The E/J might fire up again too:
S&P500 is strong at the moment before US open:
There is red flag US data soon after US market open so that may impact any momentum move.
Thursday 20th (6 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e! Over 1700 pips from last 2 weeks!
I'm watching the USDX to see if it breaks up over the 4hr bear trend line:
The E/J is loitering around the 111 level but I'm not going to LONG again here until I get a new TS signal. Protracted Fiscal Cliff debate might continue the choppiness we're seeing in the markets.
TradeSpotting has delivered over 1700 pips worth of signal during the last 2 weeks. It might be choppy for a bit longer before the next wave of trends kick in but that might be determined by the progress of Fiscal Cliff discussions.
I'm still in the E/U trade...just...... with 200 pips locked in.
I'm waiting for the next round of TS signals now.
Thursday 20th (2.30 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The USDX has struggled a bit at the 4hr bear trend line. I'll be watching to see if this is breached. I've been saying that trends do not last forever and it makes sense for a pause or, if not, even a reversal.
Three of the four open signals have now closed off:
E/U: 340 pips maximum
E/J: 550 pips maximum
Swissie: 150 pips maximum
The EUR/AUD trade is still open for the time being:
We still have a situation where the USDX and EURX Index Ichimoku charts are aligned more towards 'risk on' momentum but I will look for new TS signals either way.
Dean Malone posted this vide on the A/J today:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/121912/121912.mp4?inf_contact_key=82277d2e6204e1edf60dfe845ac44953e1561dd98c02a673d07d307f3b1658b9
Thursday 20th (10 am) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The USDX continues to pull back amid 'Fiscal Cliff' fear.
The E/J has pulled back to the 111 level. Time will tell if that will hold:
Thursday 20th (5.30 am) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The open signals have moved further overnight but are now pulling back a bit. Whether this is simply another pause or the start of a reversal remains to be seen.
Stocks have been fairly flat as the markets wait for 'Fiscal Cliff' news:
I mentioned last night that the currencies might get choppy as the USDX approached the major S/R level of the weekly H&S pattern. That is what we are now seeing:
USDX weekly
USDX 4hr
EURX 4hr
Trends cam't go on for ever and these trends that my TS signals alerted to have gone on for AGES:
E/U: moved up to 340 pips
E/J: moved up to 550 pips
Swissie: moved up to 150 pips
EUR/AUD: moved up to 280 pips
I'm leaving my stops in place and looking out for the next trading opportunity. I'll keep trading with the trend. I will trade 'risk off' if we get a reversal and bounce back up off the H&S neck line but not until I see clear signs of such a reverse in momentum. I continue to trade 'what I see'.
Wednesday 19th (10 pm) Open signals up another 580 pips ...just since the w/e!
E/U: now 310, E/J now 510, Swissie now 140 and EUR/AUD now 180 pips.
It might be a good 30 min SPY trade night:
I gave lots of advance warning that we were heading into great trend trading opportunity. There were clues in the normal index charts:
There were clues when I noted the Cloud convergence on both the EURX and USDX on daily and 4hr time frames too.
Wednesday 19th (7.40 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
The USDX has experienced a lot of selling over the last two weeks. Things might get choppy though as the USD approaches the weekly H&S neck line:
I would have stops to entry, or I'd be locking in profit now, in case it does get choppy. There were major levels broken on the E/U and E/J and it is possible that these levels just might be re-tested. I've tightened my stop on my E/U trade and have stops to entry on the A/U and E/J so I'm totally 'risk free'. There is red flag EUR, GBP and JPY news over the next 24 hrs that could upend the current optimism.
Wednesday 19th (6.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
EUR/AUD: I mentioned in my 3.30pm update that the EUR/AUD might struggle at the trend line. Check it out now:
E/J: I'm not sure if the E/J will make it back again to the 111 level. It was a hugely significant break so it may well do. The Yen pairs might get choppy ahead of tomorrows important BoJ meeting.
A/U: I mentioned earlier that whilst the A/U was trending down I didn't have a signal to go SHORT. I still don't have any signal but it has bounced up somewhat since then and I now have it trading within a bullish wedge of sorts. This pair is struggling just under the major trend line of a bull flag pattern:
Wednesday 19th (5.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
Nothing new to report.
Wednesday 19th (3.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
EUR/AUD update: The E/A signal is now up 200 pips. This pair is now butting up against a major trend line on the monthly chart. It is butting up against the upper trend line of what looks to be a bullish descending wedge pattern:
There may be some resistance at this trend line barrier and that may enable another entry signal and thus trade opportunity. This trade would certainly kick on if the AUD fails to join any continued 'risk on' rally.
Wednesday 19th (2 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
You might recall I mentioned that I consider the USD/SGD to be 'erratic' of late. Well, we've a falling USD but check it out. Clearly some 'manipulation' happening here! I won't be trading this pair any time soon that's for sure:
The A/U, Kiwi, Silver and Gold have all been trending down BUT it is well worth noting that I have not received a TS signal to SHORT any of these. Thus, I'm not sure this trend will be sustained. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Gold, and thus Silver,A/U & Kiwi, take off if/when the USDX breaks down through the H&S neck line. That ain't too far away now:
Wednesday 19th (10.50 am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
I've updated my Stocks:Dec page
Wednesday 19th (10.30 am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
You would be up about 50 + pips if you got in on the E/J as it broke the 111 level!. It's still going:
Wednesday 19th (8am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
And....maybe not.....
Wednesday 19th (7am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
PS: we might get some resistance here: S&P500 at a key resistance level:
Wednesday 19th (6am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
I mentioned in my posts over the w/e that the charts were all aligned and pointing to more 'risk on' momentum. I noted how the USDX and EURX index charts were all aligned on the Ichimoku charts for 'risk on' across the daily and 4hr time frames. Well, we've got it in spades! Some traders have been waiting for pullbacks that they believe should happen. The pips have been falling from heaven in simple trend trades whilst they wait though! The USD looks like it actually wants to get down to the H&S neck line:
The EURX seems to have broken out and up from the flag pattern
Other flag patterns on the E/U and E/J have broken to the upside too:
E/U: now up 270 pips
E/J: now up 420 pips
The Swissie is now up 120 pips
The EUR/AUD is now up 170 pips
Stocks have joined the 'risk on' party too:
Dow Jones 30
S&P500
S&P500 weekly
I discussed that I'd want to see Gold hold above the weekly pivot. That didn't happen and Gold has actually tumbled. This has held the Aussie pairs and the Kiwi back from this recent rally.
Having said that though, the A/J is trting to break out and up. No TS signal here yet though:
The USD/SGD is worth mentioning here. It has been flat for ages but is now looking like it is getting ready to join the 'risk on' party too. A major weekly support trend line is being tested. I've had a TS signal to SHORT. I won't be taking this signal as I'm in other trades that I prefer and I find this pair to be a bit erratic of late BUT I'll keep an eye on it:
Trends don't last forever so I'll be watching for signs of pullbacks but, until they appear, I'm trading with the trend!
Tuesday 18th (9.30 pm)
The USDX is coming under some pressure:
The E/U seems to be waking up
Tuesday 18th (5 pm)
Not much has changed. I have had a TS signal to LONG Gold though which I'm keeping my eye on:
I would want this to hold above the weekly pivot though.
Tuesday 18th (12 noon)
Dean Malone, from Compass FX, posted this analysis about the USD/JPY. I'm not a fan of this pair but watched it rather with the E/J and A/J in mind:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/121712/121712.html?inf_contact_key=e4c0f24b4119f26d69fdc526e80760058b32a695f8295607fd48630f5303eab5
E/J: This pair has had a huge run of late and, on looking back at my charts, I can't understand why I didn't just go LONG on a TS signal when I saw the major triangle breakout some weeks back:
The current TS signal from last week is still valid and has moved up to 400 pips. Price is currently sitting just under the MAJOR support/resistance level of 111. It looks to be forming a 'Bull Flag' to me at the moment.
I will be looking to LONG this pair if 'risk on' continues and if the E/J closes and holds above the 111 level.
The A/J is a similar story. I had been writing for ages to look out for a triangle break on the A/J. It did so earlier this year but then reversed. This break now, which is up around 200 pips, may have the follow through finally. I had also been writing for ages to look for a break, close and hold above the 84 level. The move since that point is now up around 500 pips. Why didn't I just go LONG from then?
The A/J also looks to be forming a Bull Flag pattern and might give a new TS signal here. I'll look out for it:
Tuesday 18th (9.15 am)
It's all starting to come together...a confluence of 'risk on' patterns across the broader markets. The major stocks closed up above their daily Ichimoku Clouds which is a rather bullish signal:
That Christmas Rally may just have started:
The USDX continues to hold below the weekly trend line and 200 EMA:
The USDX also continues to be wedged between the resistance of the weekly 200 EMA and trend line and the support of the H&S neck line though. Now, this is when our family would chime in with Eliza Doolittle and cheer....."Dover......move your bloomin' arse":
The EURX is still forming what looks like a Bull Flag:
This isn't the only 'Bull Flag' pattern I can see though. Check them out on the E/U, E/J, A/U, A/J and Kiwi:
E/U
E/J
A/U
A/J
Kiwi
Nothing is guaranteed with technical trading but things look more geared to 'risk on' than 'risk off' for sure.
Tuesday 18th (5.30 am)
Positive sentiment about Fiscal Cliff talks have led stocks higher overnight. The Dow and S&P500 might even break free of their Clouds:
The USDX is edging down
It does seem to be between a rock and a hard place though as it chops around between the broken weekly trend line and weekly 200 EMA and the H&S pattern neckline:
The EURX still seems to be bouncing around within a bull flag...for now at least:
The open TS signals are still going but just bouncing along sideways: E/U, E/J, A/J, Swissie and EUR/AUD.
Monday 17th (9 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
No real change yet as the indices still basically bounce around. The USDX is struggling in its attempt to move back up over the broken weekly trend line and 200 EMA. I want to see a clear new trend here; either a continuation down and through the H&S neck line OR a reversal and move back up above the weekly trend line and 200 EMA:
Is the EURX forming yet another flag pattern in a line of 4 such possible patterns?
Monday 17th (5 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
The USDX has not moved back above the broken trend line or the weekly 200 EMA. These will prove to be resistance from this point on:
There have only been narrow range moves across most pairs during the Asian session. Asian stocks were mixed but pre-market data has US stocks trading up at the moment.
Monday 17th (1.30 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
The USDX is pulling a back a bit which is no surprise. The big move last Friday had the 4hr candles well outside the Bollinger bands. I will keep watching to see if this is simply a bit or a re-trace before more 'risk on' or the start of a reversal:
Monday 17th (10.30 am) 240 more pips since w/e close!
There is some talk about delays with further Yen easing. This may pause the move on the Yen pairs and give some pullbacks. I was hoping for a pullback on the A/J to the 87 level, the triangle breakout level.
Monday 17th (10 am) 240 more pips since w/e close!
Well, we're all still here. I don't know who is more upset...technical chartists or the Mayans. I have to admit that when I woke to see the USDX I thought that things would be a lot worse across the currency pairs. Surprisingly not. In fact, I don't have any TS signals on the 4hr chart of note and that tells me the markets aren't really bearish. That is for the time being at least but this will no doubt change if a Fiscal Cliff deal doesn't eventuate.
The S&P500 took a tumble when the House vote was vetoed but has held up pretty well since then:
Ditto for the Dow Jones:
The EUR/AUD signal is the only one still going and hit the 300 level overnight:
The G/U was the only pair to give a TS signal so far BUT, with a warning. This came after a large candle move and I am always cautious with these types of signals:
The USDX isn't giving away any clues as to what it's up to:
The 'risk canary' fell off its perch, albeit briefly, but might be scrambling back up on it:
No clear TS signals anywhere. The A/U and Kiwi are down, and have been for some sessions now BUT neither of them produced a clean, well defined TS signal on the 4hr. That happens sometimes.
Friday 21st (6.20 pm)
I know we've had a bullish break up through a bear trend line BUT...the USDX 4hr chart could also be printing a Bear Flag pattern:
Asian markets were down today though and Europe is opening lower. US pre-markets are way down too.
The 'risk canary' hasn't dropped off its perch yet:
I'm waiting for a clear sign of the next new momentum and for new TS signals.
Friday 21st (5 pm)
No new TS signals so far as yet, even with this momentum shift.
The A/J or, as Dean Malone refers to it, 'the risk canary in the coal mine', has actually pulled back up to close above recent support. This is close to forming a TS signal to SHORT but hasn't quite evolved yet:
Friday 21st (4.30 pm)
The USDX has had a break above the daily trend line:
The EURX has had a flag breakdown:
Stocks have been hit hard by the Vetoed Fiscal Cliff vote. Both the Dow and S&P500 above their daily Clouds for now but, then, for how much longer? What a difference a day makes!:
Currencies have shifted to 'risk off':
E/U flag break down
E/J back below the 111 level
A/U A break below the daily bull trend line and 4hr 200 EMA:
A/J: heading for a break below recent support:
Kiwi: also broken below a daily bull support trend line
The E/A: fairly flat
No TS signals yet though. I'll update after the 5pm candle close.
Friday 21st (1 pm)
I think everyone is a bit rattled by this latest development or, rather, lack of development. There is talk now of Fiscal Cliff talks resuming on Dec 27th. I'll see how the ISDX and EURX index 4hr candles close to gauge any new momentum.
Friday 21st (12.20 pm)
The postponed 'Fiscal Cliff' vote has worried markets and sent them into 'risk off' momentum. Further action delayed now until after Christmas.
I'll wait and see whether this move has follow through.
Friday 21st (10 am)
Markets drifting. Fiscal Cliff Plan B being voted on in 30 min.
Friday 21st (8 am)
S&P500 closes higher with a bullish engulfing candle but still just below the key 78.6% fib retrace level of 1443:
Friday 21st (5.30 am)
Markets have been choppy amid ongoing Fiscal Cliff jitters. The USDX has been held below the trend line and the EURX now looks to be forming another flag pattern:
Stocks have been choppy too:
The E/U is trading within a flag of sorts too:
The E/J as well:
The A/U is still held by a daily bull trend line that has been in place for some time. I've removed other smaller trend lines:
A/U daily
A/U 4hr
The G/U is flag like too
Swissie is non-commital
The E/A is still holding above the major trend line I noted earlier in the week:
Silver weekly: Silver is hitting a major support level and, if this is respected, then the cup and handle could still play out
Gold weekly: ditto for Gold
The Dow is still bullish on the daily Ichimoku chart:
The S&P500 is still bullish too but has that 78.6% fib level to hurdle yet:
The S&P500 weekly pattern is still holding bullish too:
So, for now, this choppy action has meant there are no TS signals on the 4hr charts. That is great as it has kept me out of bad whip saw action trades. I'm watching and waiting for the next round of signals though, LONG or SHORT, I'll trade with the trend!
Thursday 20th (9.15 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e! Over 1700 pips from last 2 weeks!
It seems that there is a shift back to 'risk on' again at the moment:
The EUR/AUD signal is the only one still currently open:
Some new 'risk on' TS signals are trying to build. The E/U might build again during my night. I am still LONG this pair from the previous TS signal:
The Swissie might kick on again:
S&P500 is strong at the moment before US open:
There is red flag US data soon after US market open so that may impact any momentum move.
Thursday 20th (6 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e! Over 1700 pips from last 2 weeks!
I'm watching the USDX to see if it breaks up over the 4hr bear trend line:
The E/J is loitering around the 111 level but I'm not going to LONG again here until I get a new TS signal. Protracted Fiscal Cliff debate might continue the choppiness we're seeing in the markets.
TradeSpotting has delivered over 1700 pips worth of signal during the last 2 weeks. It might be choppy for a bit longer before the next wave of trends kick in but that might be determined by the progress of Fiscal Cliff discussions.
I'm still in the E/U trade...just...... with 200 pips locked in.
I'm waiting for the next round of TS signals now.
Thursday 20th (2.30 pm) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The USDX has struggled a bit at the 4hr bear trend line. I'll be watching to see if this is breached. I've been saying that trends do not last forever and it makes sense for a pause or, if not, even a reversal.
Three of the four open signals have now closed off:
E/U: 340 pips maximum
Swissie: 150 pips maximum
The EUR/AUD trade is still open for the time being:
We still have a situation where the USDX and EURX Index Ichimoku charts are aligned more towards 'risk on' momentum but I will look for new TS signals either way.
Dean Malone posted this vide on the A/J today:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/121912/121912.mp4?inf_contact_key=82277d2e6204e1edf60dfe845ac44953e1561dd98c02a673d07d307f3b1658b9
Thursday 20th (10 am) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The USDX continues to pull back amid 'Fiscal Cliff' fear.
The E/J has pulled back to the 111 level. Time will tell if that will hold:
Thursday 20th (5.30 am) Open signals now up an extra 710 pips since w/e!
The open signals have moved further overnight but are now pulling back a bit. Whether this is simply another pause or the start of a reversal remains to be seen.
Stocks have been fairly flat as the markets wait for 'Fiscal Cliff' news:
I mentioned last night that the currencies might get choppy as the USDX approached the major S/R level of the weekly H&S pattern. That is what we are now seeing:
USDX weekly
Trends cam't go on for ever and these trends that my TS signals alerted to have gone on for AGES:
E/U: moved up to 340 pips
E/J: moved up to 550 pips
Swissie: moved up to 150 pips
EUR/AUD: moved up to 280 pips
I'm leaving my stops in place and looking out for the next trading opportunity. I'll keep trading with the trend. I will trade 'risk off' if we get a reversal and bounce back up off the H&S neck line but not until I see clear signs of such a reverse in momentum. I continue to trade 'what I see'.
Wednesday 19th (10 pm) Open signals up another 580 pips ...just since the w/e!
E/U: now 310, E/J now 510, Swissie now 140 and EUR/AUD now 180 pips.
It might be a good 30 min SPY trade night:
I gave lots of advance warning that we were heading into great trend trading opportunity. There were clues in the normal index charts:
There were clues when I noted the Cloud convergence on both the EURX and USDX on daily and 4hr time frames too.
Wednesday 19th (7.40 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
The USDX has experienced a lot of selling over the last two weeks. Things might get choppy though as the USD approaches the weekly H&S neck line:
I would have stops to entry, or I'd be locking in profit now, in case it does get choppy. There were major levels broken on the E/U and E/J and it is possible that these levels just might be re-tested. I've tightened my stop on my E/U trade and have stops to entry on the A/U and E/J so I'm totally 'risk free'. There is red flag EUR, GBP and JPY news over the next 24 hrs that could upend the current optimism.
Wednesday 19th (6.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
EUR/AUD: I mentioned in my 3.30pm update that the EUR/AUD might struggle at the trend line. Check it out now:
E/J: I'm not sure if the E/J will make it back again to the 111 level. It was a hugely significant break so it may well do. The Yen pairs might get choppy ahead of tomorrows important BoJ meeting.
A/U: I mentioned earlier that whilst the A/U was trending down I didn't have a signal to go SHORT. I still don't have any signal but it has bounced up somewhat since then and I now have it trading within a bullish wedge of sorts. This pair is struggling just under the major trend line of a bull flag pattern:
Wednesday 19th (5.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
Nothing new to report.
Wednesday 19th (3.30 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
EUR/AUD update: The E/A signal is now up 200 pips. This pair is now butting up against a major trend line on the monthly chart. It is butting up against the upper trend line of what looks to be a bullish descending wedge pattern:
There may be some resistance at this trend line barrier and that may enable another entry signal and thus trade opportunity. This trade would certainly kick on if the AUD fails to join any continued 'risk on' rally.
Wednesday 19th (2 pm) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
You might recall I mentioned that I consider the USD/SGD to be 'erratic' of late. Well, we've a falling USD but check it out. Clearly some 'manipulation' happening here! I won't be trading this pair any time soon that's for sure:
The A/U, Kiwi, Silver and Gold have all been trending down BUT it is well worth noting that I have not received a TS signal to SHORT any of these. Thus, I'm not sure this trend will be sustained. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Gold, and thus Silver,A/U & Kiwi, take off if/when the USDX breaks down through the H&S neck line. That ain't too far away now:
Wednesday 19th (10.50 am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
I've updated my Stocks:Dec page
Wednesday 19th (10.30 am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
You would be up about 50 + pips if you got in on the E/J as it broke the 111 level!. It's still going:
Wednesday 19th (8am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
And....maybe not.....
Wednesday 19th (7am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
PS: we might get some resistance here: S&P500 at a key resistance level:
Wednesday 19th (6am) Open signals up another 270 pips from w/e!
I mentioned in my posts over the w/e that the charts were all aligned and pointing to more 'risk on' momentum. I noted how the USDX and EURX index charts were all aligned on the Ichimoku charts for 'risk on' across the daily and 4hr time frames. Well, we've got it in spades! Some traders have been waiting for pullbacks that they believe should happen. The pips have been falling from heaven in simple trend trades whilst they wait though! The USD looks like it actually wants to get down to the H&S neck line:
The EURX seems to have broken out and up from the flag pattern
Other flag patterns on the E/U and E/J have broken to the upside too:
E/U: now up 270 pips
E/J: now up 420 pips
The Swissie is now up 120 pips
The EUR/AUD is now up 170 pips
Stocks have joined the 'risk on' party too:
Dow Jones 30
I discussed that I'd want to see Gold hold above the weekly pivot. That didn't happen and Gold has actually tumbled. This has held the Aussie pairs and the Kiwi back from this recent rally.
Having said that though, the A/J is trting to break out and up. No TS signal here yet though:
The USD/SGD is worth mentioning here. It has been flat for ages but is now looking like it is getting ready to join the 'risk on' party too. A major weekly support trend line is being tested. I've had a TS signal to SHORT. I won't be taking this signal as I'm in other trades that I prefer and I find this pair to be a bit erratic of late BUT I'll keep an eye on it:
Trends don't last forever so I'll be watching for signs of pullbacks but, until they appear, I'm trading with the trend!
Tuesday 18th (9.30 pm)
The USDX is coming under some pressure:
The E/U seems to be waking up
Tuesday 18th (5 pm)
Not much has changed. I have had a TS signal to LONG Gold though which I'm keeping my eye on:
I would want this to hold above the weekly pivot though.
Tuesday 18th (12 noon)
Dean Malone, from Compass FX, posted this analysis about the USD/JPY. I'm not a fan of this pair but watched it rather with the E/J and A/J in mind:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/121712/121712.html?inf_contact_key=e4c0f24b4119f26d69fdc526e80760058b32a695f8295607fd48630f5303eab5
E/J: This pair has had a huge run of late and, on looking back at my charts, I can't understand why I didn't just go LONG on a TS signal when I saw the major triangle breakout some weeks back:
The current TS signal from last week is still valid and has moved up to 400 pips. Price is currently sitting just under the MAJOR support/resistance level of 111. It looks to be forming a 'Bull Flag' to me at the moment.
I will be looking to LONG this pair if 'risk on' continues and if the E/J closes and holds above the 111 level.
The A/J is a similar story. I had been writing for ages to look out for a triangle break on the A/J. It did so earlier this year but then reversed. This break now, which is up around 200 pips, may have the follow through finally. I had also been writing for ages to look for a break, close and hold above the 84 level. The move since that point is now up around 500 pips. Why didn't I just go LONG from then?
The A/J also looks to be forming a Bull Flag pattern and might give a new TS signal here. I'll look out for it:
Tuesday 18th (9.15 am)
It's all starting to come together...a confluence of 'risk on' patterns across the broader markets. The major stocks closed up above their daily Ichimoku Clouds which is a rather bullish signal:
That Christmas Rally may just have started:
The USDX continues to hold below the weekly trend line and 200 EMA:
The USDX also continues to be wedged between the resistance of the weekly 200 EMA and trend line and the support of the H&S neck line though. Now, this is when our family would chime in with Eliza Doolittle and cheer....."Dover......move your bloomin' arse":
The EURX is still forming what looks like a Bull Flag:
This isn't the only 'Bull Flag' pattern I can see though. Check them out on the E/U, E/J, A/U, A/J and Kiwi:
E/U
Nothing is guaranteed with technical trading but things look more geared to 'risk on' than 'risk off' for sure.
Tuesday 18th (5.30 am)
Positive sentiment about Fiscal Cliff talks have led stocks higher overnight. The Dow and S&P500 might even break free of their Clouds:
The USDX is edging down
It does seem to be between a rock and a hard place though as it chops around between the broken weekly trend line and weekly 200 EMA and the H&S pattern neckline:
The open TS signals are still going but just bouncing along sideways: E/U, E/J, A/J, Swissie and EUR/AUD.
Monday 17th (9 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
No real change yet as the indices still basically bounce around. The USDX is struggling in its attempt to move back up over the broken weekly trend line and 200 EMA. I want to see a clear new trend here; either a continuation down and through the H&S neck line OR a reversal and move back up above the weekly trend line and 200 EMA:
Is the EURX forming yet another flag pattern in a line of 4 such possible patterns?
Monday 17th (5 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
The USDX has not moved back above the broken trend line or the weekly 200 EMA. These will prove to be resistance from this point on:
There have only been narrow range moves across most pairs during the Asian session. Asian stocks were mixed but pre-market data has US stocks trading up at the moment.
Monday 17th (1.30 pm) 240 more pips since w/e close!
The USDX is pulling a back a bit which is no surprise. The big move last Friday had the 4hr candles well outside the Bollinger bands. I will keep watching to see if this is simply a bit or a re-trace before more 'risk on' or the start of a reversal:
Monday 17th (10.30 am) 240 more pips since w/e close!
There is some talk about delays with further Yen easing. This may pause the move on the Yen pairs and give some pullbacks. I was hoping for a pullback on the A/J to the 87 level, the triangle breakout level.
Monday 17th (10 am) 240 more pips since w/e close!
It seems that 'risk on' is still favoured at the moment. I do have to laugh though. I've had a few commentaries coming in through my Inbox claiming...'Euro set to rally' and 'Euro context is now up'. Seems a little late!
The open TS signals from last week have had big moves in their favour:
E/U now up 210
E/J move up 400!
The E/J is now at a hugely significant level at 111. This is a major S/R level going back for years. A close and hold above this level might prove a good entry for those of us who missed the move on this pair!
A/J now up 220
Swissie up 90
EUR/AUD up 100
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