There weren't any major moves overnight and trade was choppy due to mixed data. NFP was ok but US sentiment was down and there has been little progress with the Fiscal Cliff. The USD has stayed up and is currently sitting near the S/R level of the monthly pivot whilst it decides on its next move:
The EURX is sitting just under my 'neck line'
Stocks continue to be choppy:
I haven't ruled out a Christmas rally just yet though:
Currencies are choppy too. Some currencies are holding up in 'risk on' mode, The Aussies, Kiwi and the Loonie, whilst the others are more 'risk off', the E/U, E/J, Swissie and Cable. This divergence adds to the that on the index Cloud charts. Strangely, with all of this concern, the VIX has traded down for the session!
The E/U is still down and also sitting just above the S/R of the monthly pivot:
The E/J is down but not much
The A/U refuses to fall
So too does the A/J:
The G/U is sitting above S/R of the weekly and monthly pivot:
The Swissie is back to just under the monthly pivot:
The Loonie is trading 'risk on' though:
The NZD/USD has held above its breakout triangle:
The EUR/AUD gave only a little overnight advantage trade:
Not much has changed on the index front. Asian stocks were mostly up today, Europe seems to be opening up higher and US pre-markets are trading up at the moment too. NFP will be the big one tonight. This comes in after midnight for ma so I'll most likely miss it, unless my son and his 3 mates keep us all awake!
Nothing new here to report. NFP and Fiscal Cliff will most likely dominate sentiment today.
Most of the new signals faded. The only signal from earlier in the week that is still going is the NZD/USD.
Some poor ECB news seems to have put an end to further 'risk on'. The Euro slumped after the news and the USD rallied:
The only TS signal that was still going was the NZD/USD. It gave a 100 pips before reversing:
The big Euro falls have generated some 'risk off' signals but I have found in the past that signals after such large candle are less reliable.
The A/U has held up ok through all of this overnight:
This action made for a great 30 min chart trade on the EUR/AUD:
We never did get the USDX emerging from the Daily Cloud. The continued divergence has gone on, as usual, to give choppy 4hr trading!
Some 'risk on' moves happening BUT no TS signals. I'm waiting.
No TS signal on the A/J. All the rest is much the same as posted earlier.
The USDX is still pulling back a bit, as is the EURX BUT they do have a bit of 'Bear' and 'Bull' flag about them, respectively that is:
The main mover today has been the NZD/USD. This TS signal is now up around 50 pips. This move takes this pair to just under the trend line of a major symmetrical triangle pattern:
The A/U is bouncing around just under its trend line too:
The A/J has broken out of its channel and is trying to form a TS signal. The 5pm candle close may provide more info here.
The Swissie is doing its own 'planking' thing:
The E/U looks, to me, like it might be forming another Bull Flag:
The daily candle still has some time until close but it has not emerged from the daily Cloud just yet. It may not do so and it may simply retrace from here. I'm keeping an eye on it still though. I'm waiting for this to close outside the Cloud before taking more 'risk on' signals. This is where patience and discipline are required:
I'm out for most of the day at my son's Speech Day ceremony.
The markets wanted to pull back but some good data and optimistic Fiscal Cliff comments have limited this. Markets were choppy with this to and from stuff as the S&P500 30 min chart shows:
The USDX has re-tested the broken weekly 200 EMA and the EURX has simply paused:
This pause is a good thing! It gives the ADX time to build some new signals whilst the markets decide which way to eventually move. The E/U has pulled back a bit and this has enabled a new signal to build here:
The previous E/J signal has faded and it is now back near entry:
Same for the A/U but it is down about 10 pips:
The G/U is still positive
The NZD/USD is also still up. there is NZD data out at 7am so I'd have stops to entry here if trading:
I'm not discounting the possibility of a continued 'risk on' rally here just yet. The weekly S&P500 is still conforming to this possibility:
The Dow is still above the 13,000 level and the S&P500 is above the 1,400 for now at least. The NASDAQ is below the 3,000 level but that is due to Apple dragging it down in the wake of some bad news.
I will wait for a new TS signal to enter the E/U again. I was stopped out of my LONG overnight for 90 pips.
Might be in for a pause or even a pull back here. I'd have stops to entry or be locking in profit here. That would make sense. The E/U has moved 100 pips without hardly looking back.
I have had a signal on the E/J with my 5pm candle close:
We are at critical levels here now. I really want to see if the USDX is going to hold below the Ichimoku Daily Cloud before getting too excited about any new 'risk on' signals. Chinese equities surged today and the the US markets are up in pre-markets but I'm still a bit wary. Remember also that Friday is NFP.
Yen easing and rumours of Chinese stimulus seem to be helping for some 'risk on'.
A Dean Malone view on the E/U: This provides a good explanation of why some are LONG the E/U at these lofty levels and why some are SHORT:
http://www.compassfx.com/video/ip/120412/120412.html?inf_contact_key=1a8d4485ee68f81f3cd4d36766909a0a547e3184f8be8224ccaae0fe1e7aa2ba
Aussie GDP a little lower but not too bad. I'm going to wait a little bit here.
Wednesday 5th (11.10 am)
My index charts have just had the daily candle close. The USDX has closed BELOW the weekly trend line. The EURX has closed right on the psychological 103 level:
I am waiting to see the AUD data in 15 mins before considering taking the A/U LONG signal from yesterday. The G/U signal is still going and the NZD/USD is limping along.
Wednesday 5th (7.30 am)
There is AUD GDP data out in 4hrs. I'll be watching these two:
A positive result may kick start these moves upwards in line with the falling USD.
The USDX has continued to slide and has dipped below the weekly bull support trend line that has been in play since mid last year. The EURX continues to climb, albeit slowly:
The USDX continues to move down through the daily Cloud. It is getting close to a situation where we will have alignment across both indices on the daily and 4hr time frames where 'risk on' is favoured. This momentum could be turned on its head in a heartbeat though if there is poor news released concerning the 'Fiscal Cliff' so caution is still needed:
The E/U continues to climb for the time being though:
The A/U is waiting for its next move:
The G/U is still trading up:
The Kiwi has paused:
The Swissie is also sitting and waiting:
Stocks have been choppy overnight amid ongoing 'Fiscal Cliff' concern:
I was stopped out at b/e from my EUR/AUD trade and I'm still LONG on the E/U. I'm waiting for now until to see whether the USDX will continue its push down but the A/U trade is very tempting.
The USDX has now had a 4hr close below the weekly 200 EMA. It is now wedged between this level and the bull support trend line from mid last year:
The E/U is still up for now:
The G/U is up too:
Strangely, the Swissie is also up but this is due to Swiss Bank news that some accounts will be penalised, hence the CHF selling:
The A/U is back up at trend line level and has given a new TS signal. I'd be waiting a bit to see the trend line break on the A/U and to see if the USDX continues to break down first though:
I've also had a signal to LONG the NZD/USD:
Look how close we are now to getting full alignment for optimum 'risk on'!!! It is getting very close to make or break time here.
The USDX is still hovering just above the weekly 200 EMA and the EURX is still above the 'neck line' of my inverse H&S pattern:
The E/U is still trying to march upwards. I do think this may re-visit the 1.3 level though:
The G/U TS signal is still going
The EUR/AUD TS signal has closed though:
No other new TS signals just yet. I think it will take a major move on the USDX, either up or down, to generate new signals.
The USDX continues to hold above the weekly 200 EMA support level:
The EURX is struggling to break higher:
The E/U is still holding above the key 1.30 level for now but I would expect this level to be tested again before any move higher:
The AUD rate cut seems certain now and they only shock might be a cut of 50 points rather than the 25 currently expected. The Government are very keen for the AUD to fall to help local businesses, exporters etc.
The A/U is getting closer to the daily support trend line and will be worth watching post RBA news:
I've adjusted the trend channel on the A/J. This looks tempting to short if the Aussie falls BUT I'm still concerned about the supporting nature of Yen easing:
The EUR/AUD is holding up though. I'm long on this and the E/U:
Some weaker than expected US data and ongoing Fiscal Cliff jitters have dragged US stocks lower today ahead of the close. The USDX is still trading down though but has just bounced off the weekly 200 EMA. I think this will be the make or break level for the USD index:
The EURX is holding up:
The signal I had on the A/J last night reversed before the 1am candle closed.....I have highlighted the ADX to show how this signal did not form up fully:
G/U: A signal has formed on the G/U though and this came through on my 1am candle with a trend line break too:
The EUR/AUD signal is continuing and is now up 95 pips:
The E/U is holding up above the 1.3 level for the time being:
I have a signal trying to form on the USD/SGD but I'll need the next candle close to confirm.
I am expecting choppy conditions to continue given that we still have Ichimoku Cloud divergence and that the USDX is at a critical support level.
AUD interest rate data is due out later today and I suspect that a rate cut has already been factored into current price on the A/U etc. The A/U might rally though if rates are not cut so keep an eye on this pair today.
I'd have stops to entry or I'd be locking in profits ASAP early with these choppy and jittery markets.
The EURX is still holding up above my inverse H&S 'neck line' and the USDX is looking bearish:
There isn't any signal just yet on the S&P500 30 min chart:
The only new signal I have this week so far is on the A/J. This is a 'risk off' signal counter to other 'risk on' signals. The Aussie is under pressure though and diverging somewhat from its 'risk on' mates:
The EUR/AUD signal from last week is holding up as well:
The G/U is trading above the key 1.6 level and above the trend line BUT has not given a new TS signal as yet:
The E/U is holding above the 1.30 level for the time being:
Not much has changed since earlier post. I'm out for a few hours.
Not a lot has changed since my 1pm post and chart update. It is worth noting the critical level that the USDX is approaching though. The USDX has been falling throughout today's Asian session and, if this index continues to fall, it will soon be approaching the key support level of the weekly 200 EMA and the bull support trend line that has been in play since mid last year. The 'neck line' of my weekly H&S pattern is a little lower at the 78.81 level:
The Cloud chart of the USDX is the one that is getting really interesting though. Price is getting very close to emerging out through the bottom of the daily Cloud:
This emergence point for the USDX here with the daily Cloud would be somewhat similar to the weekly 200 EMA and bull trend line intersection. Emergence through the bottom of the daily Cloud would then bring both indices, the USDX and EURX, into 'risk on' alignment on both the 4hr and daily chart time frames. This would set up optimum conditions for 'risk on' trading.Clearly, this has not happened yet, and may not even evolve, BUT get ready in case it does!
Asian stocks are broadly up and US pre-market data is up for now too. We may end up having another one of those 'positive 1st day of the month' days......maybe keep Mr Boehner away from any microphones today though please!
Asian stocks are broadly up and US pre-market data is up for now too. We may end up having another one of those 'positive 1st day of the month' days......maybe keep Mr Boehner away from any microphones today though please!
There have been some 'risk on' moves during the Asian session on the back of some positive Chinese data from over the w/e and this morning:
The E/U has closed above the key 1.3 level now:
The G/U is also inspired:
The Swissie has closed below the trend line that goes back to Feb this year:
Some poor AUD data this morning, even in light of the positive Chinese data, has helped the EUR/AUD signal. It has now moved up to 75 pips:
Things seem to be unfolding as thought based on the various chart patterns, for now at least.
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