Saturday 5th (6.30 am) 680 pips for the week from TS signals!
The usual correlation of 'risk on' with a falling USD returned after Fed member Bullard indicated printing will continue until employment improves. US Unemployment ticked up ever so slightly so this must have led traders to believe that the USD will continue to be devalued, in the short term at least. The USDX reversed from the lofty 80.70 resistance level:
So, for Friday it seems that we are back to a falling USD = 'risk on' = rising stocks = some positive data = optimism. More Alice in Wonderland stuff but...it's a pattern for now and I'll trade it. FX Live posted this article where some say that this pattern may not last forever!
2013 will be the year of the dollar, end of ‘risk on/off’
Written by Adam Button January 4, 2013 at 18:59 GMT
The US dollar will stop trading like a proxy for risk in 2013 and will improve with economic data, according to several analysts in this story from the FT.
“At some point in 2013, US interest rate markets will react to an improving economic outlook, and the ‘good data, weak dollar’ causality which we have been watching in recent years will fall apart,” predict analysts at Société Générale.
Friday 4th (6 pm)
The USDX is still stalling at the resistance level of 80.70:
The EURX is still trading within a channel and has bounced off the monthly pivot
I will need to see whether the USD turns or continues to rally from here before having much of an idea about the next momentum trend.
There is important USD employment data out before the US market opens tonight. I am not at all sure how the market will react to such news. Good data might send the USD falling and re-ignite typical 'risk on' moves (rising stocks, rising AUD, NZD, EUR etc). Good data might also underscore the reduced need for further Fed stimulus and, thus, send the USD higher resulting in lower stocks, lower AUD, NZD and EUR and other 'risk off' moves in currencies. Poor data, though, might signal the need for further Fed stimulus thus sending the USD lower and re-igniting 'risk on' moves with higher stocks and higher AUD, EUR etc. Clear as mud!
Friday 4th (3.30 pm)
The USD is struggling at that resistance:
Friday 4th (2 pm)
I had a TS signal to SHORT the Kiwi on my 1pm candle close:
I have adjusted trend lines here and the Kiwi is about 90 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, monthly pivot support level and daily 200 EMA:
I haven't been watching the G/U as closely this week but now see I missed a TS SHORT on my 1 am candle last night:
The E/U keeps falling but didn't ever give a clear TS signal:
I've drawn in new S/R levels on the E/U and you can see how this pair is trading in a new triangle. It is about 100 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, daily 200 EMA and a monthly pivot support level:
The A/U is falling too but has yet to give a clear TS signal
I've also adjusted trend levels for the A/U. It, too, is about 70 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, weekly pivot and daily 200 EMA:
The Swissie also is moving bu this, too, didn't produce a clear cut trend signal.
The A/J and E/J are holding up with little movement just for now.
I'm still not sure what will happen when the USD meets resistance shortly in the form of the 80.70 level:
Friday 4th (10.15 am)
Things are a bit choppy still with some pairs trading 'risk on' and others trading 'risk off'. The E/J and A/J seem to be on the march up again but other risk pairs are still trading lower after fear of reduced US easing. The USDX is marching back up to a major S/R level, and possible double top area, at the 80.70 level. This is the 50 % fib retrace from the last major swing high. This 80.70 barrier could slow down progress for the USD and, thus, slow down further 'risk off' moves on the currency pairs:
The EURX is still trading in a downward channel. The monthly pivot might help to stall its fall:
The 'H&S' I have developing on the weekly chart is being tested for sure but it is still holding for the time being. It is worth noting that the 'left shoulder' of this pattern took 5 months to evolve. The current 'right shoulder' that is printing has taken only 3 months so far so, it could still be another couple of months before this potentially completes.
So, with the major trend still rather uncertain and with divergence on the Index 'Cloud' charts I will be waiting for clearer signals.
Friday 4th (7.30 am)
This sums things up. From FX Live:
Fed feeds more risk-off; EUR/USD making fresh session lows
Written by Jamie Coleman January 3, 2013 at 20:28 GMT
Fears that the Fed might not print until the forests are stripped of trees has prompted a dip in equities, a slide in bonds and a rally in the dollar. EUR/USD has broken uptrend support at 1.3087 and has worked through bids in the 1.3065 area. Small support is seen in the low 1.3040s on the hourly charts. Sellers are seen now on rallies to the 1.3185/90 area and 1.3110/20.
The irony is, of course, that easing is being cut back as economic conditions are deemed to be improving. Thus, one would think that 'risk on' would be the trading play.
Friday 4ht (6.30 am)
The Fed have announced that bond buying (monetary easing) is expected to end in 2013. This is sending the USD up further.
Friday 4ht (5.45 am)
Still seeing choppy action with the USD up but US stocks and the Aussie up but with the Euro trading down.
Dow and S&P500 still above their daily Ichimoku Cloud which is bullish
A/J hanging on to the 91.5 level
E/U bearish overnight
E/J slipping under the weekly 200 EMA
I'm still waiting for a clear and consistent trend to emerge.
Thursday 3rd (9.30 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
USDX back to rallying and EURX falling:
The E/J has broken below the weekly 200 EMA but hasn't given a TS signal yet. It might do by the 1am candle.
The E/U and Swissie are trading 'risk off' but the A/U, A/J, Kiwi and Gold are holding up for the time being. We are back to seeing Cloud divergence with the Indices on the 4hr and daily time frames. Price is 'in the Ichimoku Cloud' for the EURX on the 4hr chart and for the USDX on the daily. Divergence like this in the past has given choppy markets and conflicting signals across currencies. This is just what we're seeing now. I've made good pips this week and I'm going to wait until the markets settle back down into a more consistent pattern.
Thursday 3rd (5.30 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
We are starting to see a bit of 'risk on' creeping back into currencies as Europe comes on-line. China and Japan were on bank holiday today so that probably kept the Yen pairs a bit quiet. Asian stock markets rallied though.
The A/J is back above the 91.5 level again now:
The E/J is still above the weekly 200 EMA. The longer it stays above this support level then the more likely I think that price will hold up and continue onward:
The TS signals that are still open and running: A/J, A/U and Gold.
Thursday 3rd (3.15 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The USDX is rallying quite strongly. It has closed back up above the monthly pivot and weekly 200 EMA and is still going:
The E/J signal has now closed after giving 150 pips. It is still clinging on to the weekly 200 EMA for the time being:
The A/J has slipped back a bit to be just below the key level of 91.5
So, currencies are trading 'risk off' whereas most markets are trading 'risk on'. Weird! Weird spells be cautious!
The E/U has had a channel break down but no TS signal yet:
Gold is holding up for the time being:
The EUR/AUD channel break down without TS signal has now given 150 pips!
I want to see a more consistent momentum move across the trading instruments before taking further trades. I'd be locking in profit here now. I have locked in 200 pips on new moves this week and have a LONG E/J (300 pips locked in) and A/J (115 pips locked in) still going. I'm not going to risk these profit pips trying to guess the next market trend direction. I'll wait for charting confirmation.
Thursday 3rd (12.15 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The USD is trying to continue its rally. I'd be locking in profit in case of a reversal here.
BTW: I have updated my Stocks:Jan page.
Thursday 3rd (10.30 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The stocks I noted on my page, Stocks: Jan, have enjoyed quite a boost. US Steel was up over $2 and 8% overnight! http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=x&ql=1
I would not be surprised to stocks and currencies meander until the end of the week now though following on from such big moves. Keep an eye on your trading calendar for 'red flag' news items. The US has a few with manufacturing and employment data.
Thursday 3rd (9.20 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
A/J: The A/J is sitting just above a major S/R level now. The 91.5 level has been a significant S/R level going back for a number of years. I'd be locking in profit here as this may become choppy, or it could even reverse, from this point. Note the impact of 91.5 on the monthly chart posted below:
Thursday 3rd (9 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The A/J signal has moved on another 20 pips to total now 180 pips:
The E/J has closed the day above the weekly 200 EMA and also above the psychological 115 whole number level:
Thursday 3rd (6 am) TS gives 590 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
A little strange overnight with US stocks rallying but also the USD too:
The S&P500 and Dow Jones are back above their daily Ichimoku Clouds which is deemed bullish:
The S&P500 30 min chart LONG signal from the other day has simply continued and has now given up to 500 'pips':
The currencies have stalled as suspected after their big moves from yesterday's Asian session. Some have reversed.
E/U: this did not give a signal yesterday and has retraced within its trading channel
E/J: this has retraced to test the weekly 200 EMA, as I suspected, after giving 150 pips. I'll be watching to see if this level holds:
A/U: Gave up to 50 pips after the signal that came on the back of a large move. Still above entry.
A/J: is simply marking time after giving 160 pips
G/U: Gave 130 before reversing. Signal closed now
Swissie: no TS signal here at all and not much happening..... just yet at least
Kiwi: a signal that failed after a large candle. This signal closed at -50 pips.
Gold has given up to 150 pips
My main focus is still the E/J. I'm looking for a POSSIBLE continuation move from the weekly 200 EMA after the break and re-test.
Wednesday 2nd (9 pm)
My Index charts have just opened back up:
We are almost back to the situation where we have alignment across the 4hr and daily charts on both the EURX and USDX Ichimoku charts for optimum 'risk on' trading.
Wednesday 2nd (7 pm)
There have been such huge moves on many pairs during today's Asian session that I would not be surprised to see them 'tread water' now until the next trading day. I'll be asleep for much of this though!
Oil: This is starting to look quite bullish and interesting too.
Wednesday 2nd (6.40 pm)
I'm starting to get a TS signal forming up on the E/U. I note though that the weekly 200 EMA is now just a bit above current price and will be a major level for price to negotiate:
Wednesday 2nd (5.20 pm)
There have been a few more signals: Long A/U, Gold & Kiwi. The A/U and Kiwi have come after large candles though so I'm cautious of these signals:
The signal on Gold might help the signal on the A/U though:
Thus, the TS signals so far are: E/J, A/J, G/U, A/U, Kiwi and Gold.
Warning: many of the pairs have moved more than their average daily range already. Thus, some re-tracement is possible.
Wednesday 2nd (2.55 pm)
What a way to start the year...woo hoo!
A/J
E/J: I'm in this twice now
Even the Cable has delivered:
Wednesday 2nd (12.40 pm)
I've got stops to entry on my A/J and E/J trades. They're in profit but things could turn quickly if the House vetoes the Fiscal Cliff bill.
The E/U, A/U, and Kiwi have taken off too:
The G/U too gave a signal earlier too but I missed it as I'm not keen on this pair or trading it this week:
Wednesday 2nd (9.30 am)
We are still waiting for news of whether the Fiscal Cliff deal will be passed by the House. In the meantime, I've been looking over the EUR/AUD in light of possible 'risk on' movement if a deal is indeed reached. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see both the E/U and A/U rally on positive 'Fiscal Deal' news. Thus, this might put the EUR/AUD back into 'planking' mode (that is...flat lining). I've got the EUR/AUD trading in a flag pattern and both the E/U and A/U in trading channels:
My preferred pairs still remain the E/J, A/J, E/U, A/U, EUR/AUD and, maybe the Swissie.
I have the TS signal on the A/J from the other day and I now have a new TS signal on the E/J. I think it would be wise to wait for Fiscal Cliff news to be sorted first.... although I am in both trades already. Failure of the deal to be passed could send these two risk pairs tumbling!
Wednesday 2nd (7am)
The markets aren't open here yet. I'll be interested to see what impact all of the 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations have on the USD:
Tuesday 1st (7.30 pm)
I have posted a new Stocks: Jan page.
Tuesday 1st (7.40 am)
Look at the TS signal on the S&P500 and possible SPY trade now! You can see why I find time zones frustrating!
Tuesday 1st (6.15 am)
There has been some 'risk on' movement as hopes for a deal to avert the 'Fiscal Cliff' remain high:
I've had a new signal on the A/J:
A signal is trying to form on the E/J and there has been a trend line break.
A signal is trying to form on the G/U:
The A/U looks like it's getting ready to move:
So too does the Kiwi
As does Gold
The S&P500 also gave a great SPY opportunity overnight:
Monday 31st (10.30 pm)
No changes here. No new TS signals yet.
Monday 31st (8.15 pm)
Chart updates. No new TS signals yet but optimum signal conditions building. The ADX and DMI levels heading to below 20 thus enabling easy new signal ID. I have tweaked trend lines a bit to reflect latest S/R levels:
E/U
E/J
A/U
A/J
Swissie
Kiwi
Silver daily
Gold daily
The Dow and S&P500 are at least back to trading within their daily Ichimoku Clouds for the time being at least so, there is some slim hope of possible further 'risk on':
Please also check out my new page '2012 Review'.
Now, come on, join me......start belting this out.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Monday 31st (8 pm)
The weekly 200 EMA is still proving to be a challenge for the USDX:
Now, I'm singing down here but I can't hear you....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Chart updates coming shortly....
Monday 31st (7 pm)
This song seemed kind of appropriate today as much of the world waits for the 'Fiscal Cliff' matter to be resolved: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Monday 31st (5.20 pm)
2012 has been my first full year applying my TradeSpotting system to trading currencies, Stocks and Options. My trading success has improved as the year progressed and this improvement has been due to a few things:
• Becoming more familiar with the nuances of trading in general.
• Becoming more familiar with the nuances of individual trading pairs.
• Developing greater trading patience and discipline. This is still a work in progress though.
• Applying the Ichimoku Cloud to my technical analysis.
Forex 2013
My TradeSpotting pip tally for 2012 amounts to an impressive 17,867 pips for all posted TS signals. The average Return on Risk for the 12 months this year is 81% which is truly encouraging to say the least. All of these TS signals were posted in real time on my blog-site Some months were much better than others and I have been able to review and assess reasons for this variation when I look back over the charts through the prism of the Ichimoku Cloud. I continue to focus mostly on the most liquid pairs in my trading.
My goal for next year is to continue applying my TS system to currencies and to focus more on developing greater patience and discipline with my trading.
Stocks/Options 2013
My stocks/options trading account has seen more modest growth of 7.5% over 6 months since starting to trade back in June. The ROIC would be much higher than this though as I have not been fully invested during this period. I have been ‘testing the water’ so to speak. I have made a number of errors of judgement with stock selection and the choice of trades this year and this will be high on my mind as I move into trading next year. I will focus more on trading Cash Secured Naked Puts (CSNP) over Covered Calls (Buy-Writes) in 2013.
My goal for next year is to continue applying my TS system to trading of Stocks and Options. I will continue to trade mostly naked Puts with some directional Put/Call trading on stocks/ETFs in my watch lists.
SPY trading 2013
One of my trading frustrations is the inability to trade the SPY ETF off 30 min charts during US market hours. I have been tracking this TS strategy throughout the year and it has proven to be highly consistent and very successful.
My goal for next year is to continue to track the trading of this SPY ETF during the US market.
TradeSpotting web site 2013
I am in the process of creating a new TradeSpotting web site. The reason for this is that the new site gives me greater functionality for posting my trading blog updates and new trading threads. I will be able to post my four main weekly blog updates on 4 separate pages which has me greatly excited down here!
I am repeatedly asked about plans for revealing my TradeSpotting algorithm. I am not able to secure this algorithm through Intellectual Property Law and this makes matters very complex for me. I will continue to use my TradeSpotting blog site as a record of all of my trades and to post my TS Forex signals.
Final words for 2012
2012 has been a challenging year for me personally as I battled two further cancer scares and the recent loss of my Father. I have taken some strength from the fact that I have still managed to develop and improve my trading and develop my TradeSpotting blog site. I look further to an even better year next year!
I wish you all a Happy New Year and would like to thank those of you who have been following me on my trading journey and offering me words of encouragement.
Monday 31st (1 pm)
Nothing new to report. No new TS signals.
Monday 31st (11.30 am)
The indices are trading 'risk on' at the moment:
Monday 31st (11.25 am)
Not sure what prompted this move. Early release of some AUD data?
Monday 31st (10.30 am)
The usual correlation of 'risk on' with a falling USD returned after Fed member Bullard indicated printing will continue until employment improves. US Unemployment ticked up ever so slightly so this must have led traders to believe that the USD will continue to be devalued, in the short term at least. The USDX reversed from the lofty 80.70 resistance level:
So, for Friday it seems that we are back to a falling USD = 'risk on' = rising stocks = some positive data = optimism. More Alice in Wonderland stuff but...it's a pattern for now and I'll trade it. FX Live posted this article where some say that this pattern may not last forever!
2013 will be the year of the dollar, end of ‘risk on/off’
Written by Adam Button January 4, 2013 at 18:59 GMT
The US dollar will stop trading like a proxy for risk in 2013 and will improve with economic data, according to several analysts in this story from the FT.
“At some point in 2013, US interest rate markets will react to an improving economic outlook, and the ‘good data, weak dollar’ causality which we have been watching in recent years will fall apart,” predict analysts at Société Générale.
Friday 4th (6 pm)
The USDX is still stalling at the resistance level of 80.70:
The EURX is still trading within a channel and has bounced off the monthly pivot
I will need to see whether the USD turns or continues to rally from here before having much of an idea about the next momentum trend.
There is important USD employment data out before the US market opens tonight. I am not at all sure how the market will react to such news. Good data might send the USD falling and re-ignite typical 'risk on' moves (rising stocks, rising AUD, NZD, EUR etc). Good data might also underscore the reduced need for further Fed stimulus and, thus, send the USD higher resulting in lower stocks, lower AUD, NZD and EUR and other 'risk off' moves in currencies. Poor data, though, might signal the need for further Fed stimulus thus sending the USD lower and re-igniting 'risk on' moves with higher stocks and higher AUD, EUR etc. Clear as mud!
Friday 4th (3.30 pm)
The USD is struggling at that resistance:
Friday 4th (2 pm)
I had a TS signal to SHORT the Kiwi on my 1pm candle close:
I have adjusted trend lines here and the Kiwi is about 90 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, monthly pivot support level and daily 200 EMA:
I haven't been watching the G/U as closely this week but now see I missed a TS SHORT on my 1 am candle last night:
The E/U keeps falling but didn't ever give a clear TS signal:
I've drawn in new S/R levels on the E/U and you can see how this pair is trading in a new triangle. It is about 100 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, daily 200 EMA and a monthly pivot support level:
The A/U is falling too but has yet to give a clear TS signal
I've also adjusted trend levels for the A/U. It, too, is about 70 pips away from major support in the form of a weekly trend line, weekly pivot and daily 200 EMA:
The Swissie also is moving bu this, too, didn't produce a clear cut trend signal.
The A/J and E/J are holding up with little movement just for now.
I'm still not sure what will happen when the USD meets resistance shortly in the form of the 80.70 level:
Friday 4th (10.15 am)
Things are a bit choppy still with some pairs trading 'risk on' and others trading 'risk off'. The E/J and A/J seem to be on the march up again but other risk pairs are still trading lower after fear of reduced US easing. The USDX is marching back up to a major S/R level, and possible double top area, at the 80.70 level. This is the 50 % fib retrace from the last major swing high. This 80.70 barrier could slow down progress for the USD and, thus, slow down further 'risk off' moves on the currency pairs:
The EURX is still trading in a downward channel. The monthly pivot might help to stall its fall:
The 'H&S' I have developing on the weekly chart is being tested for sure but it is still holding for the time being. It is worth noting that the 'left shoulder' of this pattern took 5 months to evolve. The current 'right shoulder' that is printing has taken only 3 months so far so, it could still be another couple of months before this potentially completes.
So, with the major trend still rather uncertain and with divergence on the Index 'Cloud' charts I will be waiting for clearer signals.
Friday 4th (7.30 am)
This sums things up. From FX Live:
Fed feeds more risk-off; EUR/USD making fresh session lows
Written by Jamie Coleman January 3, 2013 at 20:28 GMT
Fears that the Fed might not print until the forests are stripped of trees has prompted a dip in equities, a slide in bonds and a rally in the dollar. EUR/USD has broken uptrend support at 1.3087 and has worked through bids in the 1.3065 area. Small support is seen in the low 1.3040s on the hourly charts. Sellers are seen now on rallies to the 1.3185/90 area and 1.3110/20.
The irony is, of course, that easing is being cut back as economic conditions are deemed to be improving. Thus, one would think that 'risk on' would be the trading play.
Friday 4ht (6.30 am)
The Fed have announced that bond buying (monetary easing) is expected to end in 2013. This is sending the USD up further.
Friday 4ht (5.45 am)
Still seeing choppy action with the USD up but US stocks and the Aussie up but with the Euro trading down.
Dow and S&P500 still above their daily Ichimoku Cloud which is bullish
A/J hanging on to the 91.5 level
E/U bearish overnight
E/J slipping under the weekly 200 EMA
I'm still waiting for a clear and consistent trend to emerge.
Thursday 3rd (9.30 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
USDX back to rallying and EURX falling:
The E/J has broken below the weekly 200 EMA but hasn't given a TS signal yet. It might do by the 1am candle.
The E/U and Swissie are trading 'risk off' but the A/U, A/J, Kiwi and Gold are holding up for the time being. We are back to seeing Cloud divergence with the Indices on the 4hr and daily time frames. Price is 'in the Ichimoku Cloud' for the EURX on the 4hr chart and for the USDX on the daily. Divergence like this in the past has given choppy markets and conflicting signals across currencies. This is just what we're seeing now. I've made good pips this week and I'm going to wait until the markets settle back down into a more consistent pattern.
Thursday 3rd (5.30 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
We are starting to see a bit of 'risk on' creeping back into currencies as Europe comes on-line. China and Japan were on bank holiday today so that probably kept the Yen pairs a bit quiet. Asian stock markets rallied though.
The A/J is back above the 91.5 level again now:
The E/J is still above the weekly 200 EMA. The longer it stays above this support level then the more likely I think that price will hold up and continue onward:
The TS signals that are still open and running: A/J, A/U and Gold.
Thursday 3rd (3.15 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The USDX is rallying quite strongly. It has closed back up above the monthly pivot and weekly 200 EMA and is still going:
The E/J signal has now closed after giving 150 pips. It is still clinging on to the weekly 200 EMA for the time being:
The A/J has slipped back a bit to be just below the key level of 91.5
So, currencies are trading 'risk off' whereas most markets are trading 'risk on'. Weird! Weird spells be cautious!
The E/U has had a channel break down but no TS signal yet:
Gold is holding up for the time being:
The EUR/AUD channel break down without TS signal has now given 150 pips!
I want to see a more consistent momentum move across the trading instruments before taking further trades. I'd be locking in profit here now. I have locked in 200 pips on new moves this week and have a LONG E/J (300 pips locked in) and A/J (115 pips locked in) still going. I'm not going to risk these profit pips trying to guess the next market trend direction. I'll wait for charting confirmation.
Thursday 3rd (12.15 pm) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The USD is trying to continue its rally. I'd be locking in profit in case of a reversal here.
BTW: I have updated my Stocks:Jan page.
Thursday 3rd (10.30 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The stocks I noted on my page, Stocks: Jan, have enjoyed quite a boost. US Steel was up over $2 and 8% overnight! http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=x&ql=1
I would not be surprised to stocks and currencies meander until the end of the week now though following on from such big moves. Keep an eye on your trading calendar for 'red flag' news items. The US has a few with manufacturing and employment data.
Thursday 3rd (9.20 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
A/J: The A/J is sitting just above a major S/R level now. The 91.5 level has been a significant S/R level going back for a number of years. I'd be locking in profit here as this may become choppy, or it could even reverse, from this point. Note the impact of 91.5 on the monthly chart posted below:
Thursday 3rd (9 am) TS gives 610 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
The A/J signal has moved on another 20 pips to total now 180 pips:
The E/J has closed the day above the weekly 200 EMA and also above the psychological 115 whole number level:
Thursday 3rd (6 am) TS gives 590 pips and it is only the 3rd Jan!
A little strange overnight with US stocks rallying but also the USD too:
The S&P500 and Dow Jones are back above their daily Ichimoku Clouds which is deemed bullish:
The S&P500 30 min chart LONG signal from the other day has simply continued and has now given up to 500 'pips':
The currencies have stalled as suspected after their big moves from yesterday's Asian session. Some have reversed.
E/U: this did not give a signal yesterday and has retraced within its trading channel
E/J: this has retraced to test the weekly 200 EMA, as I suspected, after giving 150 pips. I'll be watching to see if this level holds:
A/U: Gave up to 50 pips after the signal that came on the back of a large move. Still above entry.
A/J: is simply marking time after giving 160 pips
G/U: Gave 130 before reversing. Signal closed now
Swissie: no TS signal here at all and not much happening..... just yet at least
Kiwi: a signal that failed after a large candle. This signal closed at -50 pips.
Gold has given up to 150 pips
The EUR/AUD has had a triangle breakdown but the TS signal took too long to form so was invalid. This move from the triangle break has given 130 pips though!
My main focus is still the E/J. I'm looking for a POSSIBLE continuation move from the weekly 200 EMA after the break and re-test.
Wednesday 2nd (9 pm)
My Index charts have just opened back up:
We are almost back to the situation where we have alignment across the 4hr and daily charts on both the EURX and USDX Ichimoku charts for optimum 'risk on' trading.
Wednesday 2nd (7 pm)
There have been such huge moves on many pairs during today's Asian session that I would not be surprised to see them 'tread water' now until the next trading day. I'll be asleep for much of this though!
Oil: This is starting to look quite bullish and interesting too.
Wednesday 2nd (6.40 pm)
I'm starting to get a TS signal forming up on the E/U. I note though that the weekly 200 EMA is now just a bit above current price and will be a major level for price to negotiate:
Wednesday 2nd (5.20 pm)
There have been a few more signals: Long A/U, Gold & Kiwi. The A/U and Kiwi have come after large candles though so I'm cautious of these signals:
The signal on Gold might help the signal on the A/U though:
Thus, the TS signals so far are: E/J, A/J, G/U, A/U, Kiwi and Gold.
Warning: many of the pairs have moved more than their average daily range already. Thus, some re-tracement is possible.
Wednesday 2nd (2.55 pm)
What a way to start the year...woo hoo!
A/J
E/J: I'm in this twice now
Even the Cable has delivered:
Wednesday 2nd (12.40 pm)
I've got stops to entry on my A/J and E/J trades. They're in profit but things could turn quickly if the House vetoes the Fiscal Cliff bill.
The E/U, A/U, and Kiwi have taken off too:
The G/U too gave a signal earlier too but I missed it as I'm not keen on this pair or trading it this week:
Wednesday 2nd (9.30 am)
We are still waiting for news of whether the Fiscal Cliff deal will be passed by the House. In the meantime, I've been looking over the EUR/AUD in light of possible 'risk on' movement if a deal is indeed reached. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see both the E/U and A/U rally on positive 'Fiscal Deal' news. Thus, this might put the EUR/AUD back into 'planking' mode (that is...flat lining). I've got the EUR/AUD trading in a flag pattern and both the E/U and A/U in trading channels:
My preferred pairs still remain the E/J, A/J, E/U, A/U, EUR/AUD and, maybe the Swissie.
I have the TS signal on the A/J from the other day and I now have a new TS signal on the E/J. I think it would be wise to wait for Fiscal Cliff news to be sorted first.... although I am in both trades already. Failure of the deal to be passed could send these two risk pairs tumbling!
Wednesday 2nd (7am)
The markets aren't open here yet. I'll be interested to see what impact all of the 'Fiscal Cliff' negotiations have on the USD:
Tuesday 1st (7.30 pm)
I have posted a new Stocks: Jan page.
Tuesday 1st (7.40 am)
Look at the TS signal on the S&P500 and possible SPY trade now! You can see why I find time zones frustrating!
Tuesday 1st (6.15 am)
There has been some 'risk on' movement as hopes for a deal to avert the 'Fiscal Cliff' remain high:
I've had a new signal on the A/J:
A signal is trying to form on the E/J and there has been a trend line break.
A signal is trying to form on the G/U:
The A/U looks like it's getting ready to move:
So too does the Kiwi
As does Gold
The S&P500 also gave a great SPY opportunity overnight:
Monday 31st (10.30 pm)
No changes here. No new TS signals yet.
Monday 31st (8.15 pm)
Chart updates. No new TS signals yet but optimum signal conditions building. The ADX and DMI levels heading to below 20 thus enabling easy new signal ID. I have tweaked trend lines a bit to reflect latest S/R levels:
E/U
The Dow and S&P500 are at least back to trading within their daily Ichimoku Clouds for the time being at least so, there is some slim hope of possible further 'risk on':
Please also check out my new page '2012 Review'.
Now, come on, join me......start belting this out.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Monday 31st (8 pm)
The weekly 200 EMA is still proving to be a challenge for the USDX:
Now, I'm singing down here but I can't hear you....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Chart updates coming shortly....
Monday 31st (7 pm)
This song seemed kind of appropriate today as much of the world waits for the 'Fiscal Cliff' matter to be resolved: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_BoAXopS54
Monday 31st (5.20 pm)
End of 2012
It is New Year’s Eve here on a hot and windy day in Sydney whilst it seems that much of the world waits on some Fiscal Cliff deal news. I have closed the trades for December 2012. The tally is a most impressive 2625 pips from 19 signals giving a return on risk of 138%! That is an amazing trading performance. This prompted me to spend some time today reviewing the full 2012 trading year.2012 has been my first full year applying my TradeSpotting system to trading currencies, Stocks and Options. My trading success has improved as the year progressed and this improvement has been due to a few things:
• Becoming more familiar with the nuances of trading in general.
• Becoming more familiar with the nuances of individual trading pairs.
• Developing greater trading patience and discipline. This is still a work in progress though.
• Applying the Ichimoku Cloud to my technical analysis.
Forex 2013
My TradeSpotting pip tally for 2012 amounts to an impressive 17,867 pips for all posted TS signals. The average Return on Risk for the 12 months this year is 81% which is truly encouraging to say the least. All of these TS signals were posted in real time on my blog-site Some months were much better than others and I have been able to review and assess reasons for this variation when I look back over the charts through the prism of the Ichimoku Cloud. I continue to focus mostly on the most liquid pairs in my trading.
My goal for next year is to continue applying my TS system to currencies and to focus more on developing greater patience and discipline with my trading.
Stocks/Options 2013
My stocks/options trading account has seen more modest growth of 7.5% over 6 months since starting to trade back in June. The ROIC would be much higher than this though as I have not been fully invested during this period. I have been ‘testing the water’ so to speak. I have made a number of errors of judgement with stock selection and the choice of trades this year and this will be high on my mind as I move into trading next year. I will focus more on trading Cash Secured Naked Puts (CSNP) over Covered Calls (Buy-Writes) in 2013.
My goal for next year is to continue applying my TS system to trading of Stocks and Options. I will continue to trade mostly naked Puts with some directional Put/Call trading on stocks/ETFs in my watch lists.
SPY trading 2013
One of my trading frustrations is the inability to trade the SPY ETF off 30 min charts during US market hours. I have been tracking this TS strategy throughout the year and it has proven to be highly consistent and very successful.
My goal for next year is to continue to track the trading of this SPY ETF during the US market.
TradeSpotting web site 2013
I am in the process of creating a new TradeSpotting web site. The reason for this is that the new site gives me greater functionality for posting my trading blog updates and new trading threads. I will be able to post my four main weekly blog updates on 4 separate pages which has me greatly excited down here!
I am repeatedly asked about plans for revealing my TradeSpotting algorithm. I am not able to secure this algorithm through Intellectual Property Law and this makes matters very complex for me. I will continue to use my TradeSpotting blog site as a record of all of my trades and to post my TS Forex signals.
Final words for 2012
2012 has been a challenging year for me personally as I battled two further cancer scares and the recent loss of my Father. I have taken some strength from the fact that I have still managed to develop and improve my trading and develop my TradeSpotting blog site. I look further to an even better year next year!
I wish you all a Happy New Year and would like to thank those of you who have been following me on my trading journey and offering me words of encouragement.
Nothing new to report. No new TS signals.
Monday 31st (11.30 am)
The indices are trading 'risk on' at the moment:
Monday 31st (11.25 am)
Not sure what prompted this move. Early release of some AUD data?
Monday 31st (10.30 am)
No real shift just yet as the markets still wait for some Fiscal Cliff resolution:
E/U
EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD weekly chart: I am currently looking at the 1.28 level for trades on the 4hr chart. The weekly chart seems to be printing an 'inverse H&S' pattern like the EURX and the E/U. The necline for this pattern on the EUR/AUD seems to be the 1.3 level:
