Sunday, September 18, 2011

Using Indices to plan for week 19/9/2011

The US dollar index is looking a bit bullish to me.

On the daily chart: it has had a bullish breakout from a symmetrical triangle and looks to be pausing before another 'up' run. It retraced a bit to the daily 200 EMA which was also a strong S/R level of 76 and also a fib level retrace of 38.2%. It finished last week by resting at the weekly pivot. (PS: click on charts to enlarge them for viewing.)
On the 4 hr chart: it looks like a bull flag to me and it remains to be seen whether it breaks out and up this week.

The Euro dollar index is giving mixed signals.
On the daily chart: It is forming a symmetrical triangle within a larger symmetrical triangle. Last week it bounced up off the lower trend line of the larger symm triangle, hit the 50% retrace level from the Aug high which was also near the Weekly R1 level and finished the week off by pausing at the Monthly pivot S1.
On the 4 hr chart: It is getting close to the apex of the symm triangle and could break out up or down. You will need to watch this index from the beginning of the week to see which way it moves.

The USDX looks bullish so I'll keep a close watch on this at the start of the week to see which way it moves. A bullish USDX points one towards going long on the USD in the pairs. Each pair then has to be assessed for potential trades though, the index just give added confirmation, if needed.
I'll be watching which way the EURX breaks before taking and EUR dollar trades. If the index breaks out and up that would suggest to me to look for potential long EUR trades. If it breaks down though, then I'd look for opportunities or set ups to short the EUR.

PS: I continue to be grateful to Pierre Du Plessis, from FX Mentor Pro, for teaching me the value of tracking the indices to assist with trading the FX pairs.

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