Monday, October 28, 2013

Trading Week 28/10/13

Sat 2nd Nov (4.30 am)
Indices: the USDX has continued to rally and is testing the daily bear trend line.:

EURX: this has bounced up off the support of its weekly trend line for now: 

E/J: this signal gave up to 130 pips but I think that U/J strength is helping to hold this pair up a bit:

Cable: this gave a signal off my midnight candle: 

This Cable move was one that would have been better played off a break below 1.60 on the 30 min charts though:

U/J: this gave a signal off my 4 am candle:

I am on the road all day today, driving interstate and back. I won't be posting my FX Indices Review until later tonight or tomorrow.

Fri 1st Nov (8.20 pm)
No new TS signals.

This continues to be more of a Euro event. The A/U, A/J and Kiwi have not been drawn in just yet. The Cable is testing the 1.6 ahead of PMI data.

Fri 1st Nov (2.40 pm)
EURX: this has had a huge fall over the last 24 hrs and is now back below the support of the monthly 200 EMA. It is also getting down very close to the support of the major weekly/monthly chart trend line:
EURX weekly
EURX daily
EURX 4hr

USDX: price is stalling at the weekly 200 EMA.

Fri 1st Nov (6.30 am)
A/U: I notice we're still sitting at a some significant support: the 4hr 200 EMA and the 61.8% fib pull back level of the last up move. There is AUD and CNY data out later that might get this moving from here:

Fri 1st Nov (6 am)
Indices: the EURX has fallen heavily overnight and is back below the major S/R level of the monthly 200 EMA:

USDX: tracking higher but not at the S/R level of the weekly 200 EMA just yet: 

S&P500: Interestingly, stocks did not join the 'risk off' move of the EURX. They are trading higher before market close: 

U/J: this TS signal has now closed: 

E/U: fell heavily in late London trade. This late fast move would have been best captured off the 30 min charts:

E/J: this gave a new TS signal off my midnight candle but, like the E/U, was a fast late move best captured off the 30 min charts. I'm not sure how much further this may fall as there is some support just below price now: 

A/U: not as gloomy as the Euro pairs:
A/J: ditto

Cable: chopping around above the 1.60 S/R level: 

Kiwi: chopping sideways too:

Last nights action seemed more of a Euro event but that isn't to say that other instruments and pairs might not join it. Today is the first day of the new trading month and these are, more often than not, bullish for stocks and risk appetite. We shall see!

Thurs 31st Oct (4.45 pm)
Indices: EURX: this is breaking down through the support trend line and I would not be surprised to see it test the monthly 200 EMA. It is not unusual to see price test previously broken trend lines and this was a major trend line that was broken a few weeks ago:

Indices and the Ichimoku Cloud:
The USDX is pushing up through the 4hr Cloud and the EURX is pulling back to test its 4 hr Cloud. This reversal has undone the Ichimoku alignment for 'risk on across the 4hr charts:
USDX 4hr
EURX 4hr

The daily charts are still risk on and each is well away from their respective Cloud:
USDX daily:
EURX daily:

S&P500: note how a 61.8% pull back of the last bull move would bring price on this index back near the significant 1,685!

Thurs 31st Oct (4.15 pm)
No new TS signals.

Thurs 31st Oct (2.30 pm)
No new TS signals BUT the A/J is trying. I'll check on my 4 pm candle close.

Thurs 31st Oct (8.30 am)
Indices: The lack of comments from FOMC about delaying QE tapering helped to boost the USD. The EURX is still buoyant though on some positive EUR data:

U/J signal still going:
A/U: ditto

No other new TS signals here.

I am travelling again today so will update later.

Thurs 31st Oct (5.20 am)
Indices: The USDX has enjoyed FOMC and has continued to bounce off the major support level:

EURX: not as happy and testing trend line support. This index has not tested the monthly 200 EMA at all since breaking this major S/R level. This FOMC news just may give it some motivation to try this level:

S&P500: another great SPY intra day trade gone begging whilst I slept:

AUD/NZD: has bounced back of the key 1.145 level as previously discussed: 

E/U: not enjoying this news:

E/J: above 135 for now on U/J strength but it may not last.
A/U: not happy either:

A/J: holding up on U/J strength too:

Cable: I'm watching for any break of the neck line here...the 1.60 level
Kiwi: tanking too

U/J: lifted with USD strength:
Silver: pulling back:
Gold: ditto

Reaction so far is to 'risk off'.

I'm waiting fo the dust to settle a bit.

RBNZ rates data in a couple of hours.

Thurs 31st Oct (4.55 am)
E/J: I see this is above 135 still////for now at least:

Wednesday 30th Oct (9 pm)
FX has slowed down a bit ahead of FOMC.

Thus, I've updated my Stocks: Triangles page.

I do note the E/J is above the key 135 though!

Wednesday 30th Oct (8 pm)
S&P500: this index is up in pre-market and seems to be pricing in an FOMC release of 'no QE tapering this year':

Note how this index has rallied since the last bullish close above the key 1,685 level:

Note, also, how the bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross has evolved: 

USDX: Note, also, how there was NO new bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross on the daily USDX Ichimoku: 

Wednesday 30th Oct (5.30 pm)
It looks like the FX markets are gearing up for some possible USD weakness.

E/J: lurking under 135 still

A/U: bounced off the combined 4hr 200 EMA which is also the 61.8% fib pull back level (as per this morning's post). I'd be out of the short signal now.
A/J: the short never got going:

E/A: this TS signal has closed off:

Cable: got the bounce off the daily support trend line AND the 'double top' neck line:
Kiwi: looking bullish
U/J: signal still going:

AUD/NZD: got the pull back to the key 1.145 area I suggested!

Silver: bullish move starting?

Gold: hanging out near the monthly pivot

Wednesday 30th Oct (1.45 pm)
USDX: this is ticking a little higher. Note how price has bounced off the support of the 38.2% fib level...yet again:

The 4hr chart shows this pull back a little more clearly. There was some talk suggesting this bit of a rally is due to short covering prior to FOMC. That makes sense to me as US data from overnight should have weakened USD:

EURX: this is holding up above recent trend line support though for now: 

FOMC is out later and this will most likely trigger some new momentum.

Wednesday 30th Oct (6 am)
A/U: just noticed this confluence: The 61.8% fib pull back of the last up move is near the 4hr 200 EMA! Might be a reaction zone!

Wednesday 30th Oct (5.45 am)
Indices: the USD has been putting in a bounce off the support of the 38.2% fib/neck line but the EURX is holding above its support:

S&P500: this would have been another great intra day SPY trade.

E/J: lurking under the key 135 again!

A/U: TS signal has given 40 pips:

A/J: getting a boost from the U/J. TS signal down: 

EUR/AUD: TS signal up about 50: 

Cable daily: down through support. The 1.60 region looks like a neck line region for a possible 'double top': 

U/J: I received a new TS signal on midnight candle: 

AUD/NZD: I'm looking out for a test of the 1.145 for a continuation LONG. 

Tuesday 29th Oct (4.10 pm)
EURX: holding above support for now:

Cable: getting down to near the support of the daily trend line:

Tuesday 29th Oct (12.20 pm)

AUD: there have been a couple of AUD based TS signals BUT I'm wary ahead of FOMC given the impact that this could have on the USD and, thus, the AUD/USD and AUD pairs.

A/U: this did trigger a new TS signal BUT I'm not keen unless it breaks 0.95 and down from the potential Bull Flag:

A/J: this has broken the daily support trend line on the 4hr candle BUT I'd rather see a daily close below this trend line. Price has bounced off the 4hr 200 EMA just now.

Tuesday 29th Oct (10 am)
A/U: Some weakness following RBA news. I am getting a TS signal forming up here but will need the 12 noon candle close to confirm. 

Tuesday 29th Oct (8.15 am)
A/U: this has broken below the daily support trend line on the 4hr and daily time frames BUT I don't have a TS signal. Also, there is RBA news out later today and FOMC tomorrow. So, this makes for tricky trading. I've adjusted the flag trend lines to capture recent price action:

4hr Cloud: price is trading at the bottom edge of the 4hr Cloud and this might offer some support. A breach of this would be bearish though:

Tuesday 29th Oct (6 am)
Indices: The EURX is enjoying Ichimoku alignment for the time being:
USDX: flat

AUD/NZD: this signal has now closed after giving 100 pips. I'm watching for any retrace to test the broken 1.145: 

E/U: pole dancing around the 1.38:

E/J: I'm stalking this pair. The chopping around under the 135 means, most likely, that any continued bullish momentum may not produce a new TS signal. I still see any break and hold above 135 as suggesting that 140 might be the next stop.

A/U: chopping sideways. Not surprising given FOMC looming. TS kept me out of this far. 
A/J: ditto here:
Cable: choppy:

Kiwi: chopping sideways as well. Like with the Aussie and A/J, not surprising given FOMC looming. TS kept me out of this far. 

U/J: TS signal took too long to form and, hence, was not valid. Price holding above 97 support for now. 

I really think that longer term trading is just gambling until after FOMC news. I'm not expecting much movement during the Asian session. There is one bit of Aussie red flag news and, then, nothing until much later tonight with some USD data. 

Monday 28th Oct (9.10 pm)
Many pairs are looking a bit bullish. The day light saving shift means these TS signals, if they evolve, may not form up until my midnight candle:


Stocks: I've used this down time to check over a few more Gold stocks in case Gold continues with bullish momentum. These stocks are posted in my Stocks:Oct page.

Monday 28th Oct (5.50 pm)
E/U: this signal is now closed after yielding 100 pips.
E/A: this signal is now closed after yielding 90 pips.

No other new signals yet.

Monday 28th Oct (2.30 pm)
Indices: these haven't moved too far, and with FOMC on Wednesday, I wouldn't expect too much until then:

E/U: chopping around above the 1.38 support:

E/J: a TS signal trying to form here. Remember, I'm looking for any bullish move above 135 to possibly head to 140: 

A/U: might be a bullish wedge break and the daily support trend line is holding. A TS signal is trying to form:
A/J: same here: might be the bullish wedge break and the daily support trend line is holding. A TS signal is trying to form:

U/J: need the 4 pm candle to confirm a TS signal here:

Monday 28th Oct (8.30 am)
TS Signals: these are all fine for the moment:
E/U: holding above the 1.38 for now:

U/J: no TS signal here just yet but one is trying to form. The 97 seems to have held:

NB: I have to travel interstate today so won't be able to update again until this afternoon.

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