It was a fairly quiet night with currencies but stocks rallied a little. I'm still watching to see if stocks can break above a possible 'double top' area though:
USDX flat
S&P500 30 min: stocks up overnight
S&P500 daily: double top still possible though
A/U bouncing but back under the 0.key 92
G/U flat
EUR/AUD daily: still flag bound
Gold: flat
Stocks: I've had some bullish signals with the S&P500 but I'm also conscious of a possible bearish 'double top' forming:
Thursday 18th July (3 pm)
A/U: signal now closed:
There were no major moves following Ben Bernanke's testimony overnight. The USD is pretty flat but the EURX slipped back below the triangle trend line:
USDX
E/U: TS signal closed out for no gain
A/U: still above 0.92
G/U chopping upwards:
E/A: down but stop reached at -100
Kiwi: chopping upwards:
U/J: still flat
Gold: pretty flat too:
Wednesday 17th July (6 am)
Ichimoku Alignment: The USD and EUR index charts have been flipping in and out of alignment over recent weeks as various global markets negotiate new highs. They have currently just flipped back into a 'risk on' alignment but I will be watching to see if there is any follow through this time around. The markets have been choppy for months and, sooner or later, trend will re-emerge. As a trend trader I'm waiting, patiently, for that new period.
The USDX has drifted lower overnight and the EURX has broken out of the bullish ascending triangle pattern. I need to see this hold out of that triangle though:
E/U: gave anew TS signal on my 11 pm candle
A/U: up around 80 pips now
A/U: looks like it will close out of the channel on the daily candle close:
E/A: choppy...as suspected
Kiwi: gave a TS signal on my 11 pm candle:
G/U: trying to form a signal
U/J: trying to form a TS short
Gold: still loitering just under the $1,300 level:
S&P500 weekly: I'd like to see this break the trend line. Stocks slipped back from news high overnight as caution set in ahead of tomorrows Bernanke testimony.
EURX: this index is trying to break up and out from the bullish ascending triangle pattern:
EURX daily
AUD/USD: this signal is now up 50 pips:
Kiwi: a signal is trying to form up here too:
EUR/AUD: this also gave a TS signal but I'm not keen to short this:
A/U: I've had a long signal on my TS system. Looking out for signal on the Ichimoku and a trading channel break on the daily:
E/U: a long signal building here too:
Aussie: The A/U is looking a bit bullish. It is trying to break out of the trading channel but I would want to see this break and hold out of this channel on the daily chart:
A/U daily
A/U 4 hr : A TS signal is trying to form up here on the 4hr chart:
A/U Ichimoku 4hr: A/U looking bullish here too. I'm watching to see if price can break and hold above the Cloud and, then, I'll be looking for any bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross above the Cloud to dovetail in with any TS signal. Confluence!
Q: Targets if price breaks up and out of trading channel?
A: I've put fibs in on the daily chart. A 61.8% pull back would put price back at around parity. A 38.2% pull back would see around the 0.96 level. Interesting times here when we're so oversold.
E/U: check out the Bollinger bands on the E/U 4 hr chart! A bit of a 'pressure cooker' setup?
Some weaker than expected US data has helped to keep a lid on the USD. his, syrangely enough, has helped lift the EURX and stocks:
S&P500: This would have been a nice low risk day trade
What I'd like to see with the indices:
USDX: a clear break, up from the 84 or down below the weekly trend line
EURX: a clear break out from the ascending triangle:
E/U: signal now closed for over 200 pip gain
A/U daily: waiting for a break up out of the channel or down below the 90:
G/U: signal now closed for over 200 pip gain
EUR/AUD 4 hr: signal now closed for over 250 pip gain
EUR/AUD: looks like a bull flag has evolved here with price testing the broken trend line:
U/J daily: undecided so hanging near the safety of the 100 level:
Gold: undecided so hanging near the safety of the $1,300 level:
There isn't much movement yet. The indices are just bouncing sideways for the time being:
USDX
E/U: not up to much just yet
A/U: this is trading up above the 0.90 level still and seemed to like 'today's 'as expected' data out of China
Gold: is loitering just under the key $1,300 level. I think that a break, close and hold above this would be quite bullish:
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