Monday, June 10, 2013

Trading Week 10/03/13

Friday 14th June (8 pm) SPY trade possible 75% ROIC!
The E/U and G/U signals have now closed off:

Interestingly I don't have SELL signals on these just yet. The G/U has had a trend line break though and the E/U looks to working towards one as well. I'll keep an eye out for TS signals here just the same.

Friday 14th June (6 pm) SPY trade possible 75% ROIC!
It seems like 'do or die' time for the indices. The USDX is trading just above the weekly support trend line and the EURX continues to hover near the key 108.5 level:

Gold: looks interesting as it forms up into a symmetrical triangle

I am still being open minded here about which way momentum could move from this point. The Ichimoku charts are currently not aligned but are 'line ball'  and could flip either way, to 'risk on' or 'risk off', from this point. I'm waiting for the next alignment and, then, to see if this alignment will hold and develop into a move with some conviction. The alignment has chopped in and out this week without a clear and decisive break either way. 

Friday 14th June (10 am) SPY trade possible 75% ROIC!
A/U: does that look like a possible bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern on the A/U? Neck line at the 0.96?

Friday 14th June (7.10 am) SPY trade possible 75% ROIC!
The indices are back to being in a 'risk on' alignment and stocks had a huge rally overnight:

USDX weekly: Hooley dooley...check out where this index is now!! Price is almost back to the major support trend line on the weekly chart. I would expect some big reaction here for sure. Price could rocket either way from here:

USDX monthly chart: this chart shows that there is plenty of room to fall IF the weekly trend line is breached:


S&P500: still in a flag pattern and conforming to a possible Bull Flag:
S&P500 Ichimoku: still trading above the Cloud

S&P500 30 min chart: this gave a straightforward signal at market open last night. A TS signal came through when the S&P500 was at 1,610. Thus, I would look to buy the June $161 Call option: 

This option opened at $2.08 and closed at $3.60. This is an increase of $1.58:

SPY Trade ROIC: the ROIC for this trade was an impressive 75%!
ROIC = ($1.58/$2.08) x 100 = 75%

A/U: Elsewhere the A/U has given a new signal: 

Price has now broken out of a descending trading channel and this pair is well overdue for some pull back. I see parity being a possible target as it is near the 50% fib pull back level:

The Ichimoku chart shows how the Aussie has now broken above the 4hr Cloud: 

 Kiwi: the Kiwi has also given a channel break and new TS signal:

E/U: this TS signal is now up 120 pips:

G/U: this signal is up 50 pips

E/J: check out the reversal style candle on the daily chart!

We have been in very choppy markets for over 4 months now. The saying is that the longer the choppy markets then the greater the momentum of the following eventual breakout. The USDX weekly trend line and the S&P500 flag trend lines might help us to assess which way this breakout will be!

Thursday 13th June (5.30 pm)
It has been a strange week. The USDX and the EURX have both chopped downwards:

The USDX seems to have been dragged down by the U/J and Japanese stocks have been pummeled this week. This is impacting on broader market sentiment keeping a lid on any risk appetite.

S&P500: this is now down trading close to the daily support trend line:

This support trend line is also in the region of the Ichimoku Cloud.

A breach of this daily support trend line and Ichimoku Cloud would be quite a bearish signal and would suggest of further falls. In that event, I would then expect the E/U, G/U, A/U and Kiwi etc to fall too.

Thursday 13th June (7.30 am)
The indices are still aligned for 'risk on' BUT only just. The USDX chopped lower but the EURX chopped all over:

Stocks fell overnight and the S&P500 gave a great SPY trade opportunity:

S&P500 daily: this is still trading within the flag pattern but getting down close to the daily support trend line: 

S&P500 daily Ichimoku: price is getting down close to the Cloud too:

E/U: this signal is up but I would be locking in profit here. Any continued sell off in stocks might drag this back down:

G/U: ditto here

GBP/AUD: this has closed off now after giving 800 pips:

AUD/NZD: this gave 100 pips overnight on a triangle break trade

The markets seems even extra choppy and unpredictable at the moment, if that is at all possible! I'm wondering if a big move is ahead and I'm now wondering if this might be a 'risk off' type of move. The action with stocks makes me suspect this and, also, the fact that the Ichimoku Cloud alignment could flip to 'risk off' quite quickly.

Wednesday 12th June (7.50 pm)
E/U: There is some EURX weakness creeping in and this is putting the E/U under pressure. The daily trend line is getting tested:

The indices may flip back into being divergent again. The EURX is back very close to its Cloud:

Wednesday 12th June (7 pm)
G/U: I've had a signal on the G/U:

Wednesday 12th June (5.30 pm)
The Index charts are still aligned for 'risk on'. There seems to be some general momentum in that direction building across a number of the pairs. This might be the start of the next move. I've got some other TS signals building.

Wednesday 12th June (6.30 am)
The USDX has continued to fall:

The EURX pulled back though too: 

Stocks: have been choppy:

The S&P500 daily candle has yet to close on my platform but it currently looks like this with no clear break, either way, out of the flag pattern:

The current TS signals stand as:
E/U: up about 40+
E/J: closed at -100
GBP/AUD: 800

A/U: check out the daily candle forming up on the A/U!

AUD/NZD: is this a trend reversal or just a pause and bear flag forming? I'll be watching the trend lines on the 4hr chart to try and work this out:

Tuesday 11th June (5.50 pm)
AUD: The A/U and A/J are tanking but, most strangely, I don't have a TS signal yet. I suspect it might form up on the 7pm candle but, still, I find it odd.

E/U: I'm not very confident here but, 'plan the trade and trade the plan'.

Tuesday 11th June (4.20 pm)
E/U: I have just arrived home after travelling from interstate to see a new, but weak, signal on the E/U:

There is some resistance in its path for sure in the form of the weekly 200 EMA and a lot of people will SHORT it there. I still see a bullish break up and out on the EURX though:

I also see the E/U trading above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 4hr and daily chart. Confluence BUT no guarantees! I've taken this trade. I'm looking to the G/U for a new signal too.

The GBP/AUD signal from last week is now at the 700 pip level:

E/J: this signal is still open but price pulled back to test the 130 level:

Tuesday 11th June (7.10 am)
S&P500: I have been noting in my w/e blog updates about how I am looking for signals on the S&P500 index to warn me about any possible, looming price correction. One such signal has evolved and, so, I'll be on the lookout for further signals. The signal that has evolved is that of a bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross above the Ichimoku Kumo (Cloud). These are considered a 'weak' signal by Ichimoku standards though. This cross can be seen on the latest daily chart below:

There have been 3 such bearish Tenkan /Kijun crosses in the last 14 months BUT only 2 of these 3 crosses have resulted in significant bearish follow through. Bearish follow through was noted after the crosses last April and October but not in the most recent cross from April of this year. In fact, the recent bearish April cross was soon followed by a more bullish signal cross just a few weeks later! It bears watching though. This latest cross may prove to be just another consolidation phase before the next bull move or it could be a warning of some deeper pull back. I'll be watching this signal to see how it evolves from here and also looking out for further warning signals. The daily bull trend line is still intact and there has not been a clear breakout, either way, from the flag pattern:

Tuesday 11th June (6.30 am)
Risk on alignment still holding:


No new TS signals yet but the pairs look to be starting to move.

Tuesday 11th June (3 am.....yep!)
I was awake so I thought I'd check for any moves. No new 4 hr TS signals yet. 

I'm keeping an open mind here. The current index bias is still for 'risk on' but I'm watching for momentum to move either way.

Monday 10th June (9 pm)
S&P500: The 'risk on' alignment might spill over into stocks too:

I'm a bit concerned I'm going to miss some TS signals tonight :-(

Monday 10th June (8.30 pm)
EURX: This seems to be taking off:

E/J: a new TS signal and channel break here:

Monday 10th June (3 pm)
USDX: this is pulling back a bit but that is no surprise given the falls from last week.

EURX: still above the Cloud and above the 108.5

I think we need some direction from either Europe or the US session to see how the w/e Chinese data is going to be read. It is worth noting that Asian stocks are up on some good JPY data and even Hong Kong markets are currently up 4% and quoted as 'shrugging off' the poor w/e data!

E/U: no signal yet BUT the good news for me is that a new EMA cross can now generate a TS signal.

A/U: This latest down move didn't generate a 4hr signal. The 0.94 is holding price for the time being:

Monday 10th June (11.25 am)
The markets opened with a bit of a gap up for the USD. This is most likely on the back of the batch of weak Chinese data released over the w/e. 

Ichimoku Alignment:The charts are still aligned for 'risk on' at the moment. It is a Chinese and AUD bank holiday today so liquidity may be lighter until Europe opens. I'm still on the lookout for TS signals in line with this current momentum. 

I'll be keen to see how the weak Chinese data impacts the USD though, especially when the US session opens. I'm not sure how this news will impact US traders. I see two possibilities:
  1. Global markets thought to be a bit soft still (understatement you may say here!) so worries about QE tapering reduced and USD continues to track down. Alignment for 'risk on' continues.
  2. Global markets thought to be a bit soft still (understatement you may say here!) BUT a bit of fear creeps back in so, the USD rallies, stocks fall, VIX rises and a return to general 'risk off'.
TS signals: I don't have any just yet and I really would rather wait for at least the European session.

E/U: no signal yet
G/U: no signal yet


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