Monday, May 20, 2013

Trading Week 20/05/13

Saturday 25th may (6.10 am)
Another choppy night. To me it feels like something is building here. Just what....I'm not sure. Like I keep trend traders we just hope to tag along once it starts. 

EURX: for weeks now my w/e write up has noted that the EURX finished the week above the daily Cloud but below the key 108.5. That ain't changed! I'll be keen to see where it closes!

E/U choppy too

Stocks: 30 min chart choppy

The daily chart might be suggesting a possible bullish reversal though after two down days with Friday's pin bar reversal style candle:

I am away this w/e. It is Memorial Day holiday in the US on Monday, and a UK holiday too, so I will not update my w/e blogs until Monday (AEST time).

Friday 24th May (11.50 pm)
How non-noncommittal is this? EURX sitting right on the 108.5 and the USDX just below the 84!

Friday 24th May (3 pm)
Both indices are still trading above their Ichimoku Cloud:

Most Asian markets are trading lower again today and we are seeing some Yen strength. I've tightened my stops on my Long Calls and was stopped out for profit from F overnight. 

S&P500 daily: I've noted there has almost been a 3/7 EMA cross here and I'm on the lookout for any 7/21 EMA cross. We've has a few 3/7//21 EMA crosses over the last few months that have not had much follow through so, this is no guarantee that a significant correction is on the way. I've noted these on the chart below. It pays to be vigilant though!

S&P500 Ichimoku: This has a bit of a way to go before giving a bearish signal, even a weak on!

I do suspect that any significant continued sell off with stocks would drag the E/U, A/U, G/U and Kiwi along and down further.

I am away this w/e. It is Memorial Day holiday in the US on Monday so I will probably not update my w/e blogs until Monday (AEST time).

Friday 24th May (11.10 am)
EURX: the daily candle closed above the 108.5 level:

Not a whole lot happening.

Friday 24th May (7.10 am)
My Go Market platform is down so I'm not able to check my 7am candle for any new signals.

Friday 24th May (6.10 am)
Some positive data seems to have offset concerns about the Fed tapering of QE and this has sent the mood back to one of 'risk on'. Stocks have closed off their lows, the USD is back below the 84 level and the EURX is back above the key 108.5. Apparently, 'Super Mario's' speech has been delayed as well. So, this variable has not been thrown into the mix below just yet:

S&P500: no SPY trade possible here today!

EURX: daily
EURX 4hr

USDX daily: the interesting thing to note here is how the Cloud below current price is thinning. This means there will be reduced levels of support should price get down that far: 
USDX 4hr:

A/U: closed for a loss of -100 overnight. I'm rather pleased here as we head to the US soon and I would prefer a stronger AUD!

EUR/AUD signal has closed off too: 

E/U: the weekly support bull trend line seems to be offering strong support to price:

U/J:the monthly 200 EMA proved to be a HUGE stumbling block here for the U/J. I have noticed how powerful these particular EMA levels tend to be:

Any positive data seems to be seized upon and used as an excuse to rally. For example, the Aussie has been hit with huge problems recently, especially so yesterday with the poor Chinese data, yet it's up and running again just now. I wonder for how long? all makes me wonder though if this weekly chart bullish 'inverse Head and Shoulder' pattern might just evolve?

Thursday 23rd May (8.30 pm)
Global stocks are well down after the Fed comments and poor Chinese data. US is down in pre-market too:
USDX: has paused

EURX: is holding up surprisingly well. It's back to trading below the 108.5 but above the Cloud....ho hum. 

Some positive European PMI data is boosting the E/U, A/U and Kiwi just now it seems. All eyes will be on Super Mario later (5.30 am for me) to see what he might add to this rather odd mix.

Thursday 23rd May (11.20 am)
A/U: I have had a TS SHORT signal on the A/U with my 11 am candle. I'd be wary though in case the Chinese data comes out positive:

G/U: I HAVEN'T had a clean cut TS signal here but it is approaching a key S/R level in the 1.50. This might offer an entry point if the the mood stays bearish.  

S&P500: this did close with a sort of bearish engulfing candle so might be turning. Not all recent bearish engulfing candles have resulted in extended bearish follow through though. I would certainly be waiting before taking any more 'risk on' type trades for the moment:

Thursday 23rd May (9.50 am)
My EURX daily candle closed as a reversal style pin bar candle and at 108.49, just below the key 108.5. A failure to hold above this important 108.5 level might prove to be bearish for risk appetite.

There is red flag Chinese PMI data due out at 11.45 and a poor result here might just tip the E/U, A/U and Kiwi down further. I still don't have any TS signals here on the A/U or E/U 4hr charts though. One is trying to build on the Kiwi but it is too broad based now to be valid.

Thursday 23rd May (7 am)
Still no 4hr TS signals after my 7 am candle close!

Thursday 23rd May (6.40 am)
Stocks and currencies have chopped around in a most volatile US session after conflicting sentiment concerning the tapering of US monetary easing. There was a 'risk on' mood after Mr Bernanke comments but then this shifted to 'risk off' later when the Fed minutes were released.


USDX: has broken up and out of the triangle and is now back above the key 84 level

EURX: fell back below the 108.5 but is trying to scramble back up. I'll be watching to see where the daily candle closes here: 

EUR/AUD: The only TS signal has given up to 100 pips:

A/U 15 min chart: this shows how volatile the A/U is at the moment and how susceptible this pair will be to any drop off with stocks:

I don't have any other 4 hr TS signals which isn't surprising given the volatility and lack of clear trend. 

Wednesday 22nd May (9.30 pm)
It will be pure speculation until after the US homes sales data and the Fed release.

Wednesday 22nd May (6 pm)
EURX: this bullish breakout is continuing. I've been waiting for a breakout from this trading zone for weeks!:
EURX daily: I've been waiting for price to break out either up above the 108.5 or back below the Cloud:

EURX weekly: there now seems to be a bullish 'inverse H&S' pattern forming up on the EURX. Eamonn Sheridan, from FX Live, picked me up on this earlier today:

USDX: a possible bearish H&S fits in with what seems to be building on the EURX

E/U: the bearish H&S I have been noting on the E/U has stalled, of course, as it got support from the weekly bull trend line:

Stocks: pre-market US stocks seem to be trading 'risk on' as the E/U is too. This might be a bumper night for an S&P500 or SPY trade, post 'Bernanke' of course:

Wednesday 22nd May (4 pm)
EUR/AUD: I missed this signal earlier from my 3pm candle close:

Wednesday 22nd May (3.45 pm)
I'm seeing quite a few stock charts setting up for potential bullish breakouts. This might all come undone if the USD rallies on the back of any Fed comments tonight though. I have posted a few more new stocks in my Stocks:May page. All of the stocks charted in this rather lengthy page of examples are still bullish candidates and there are HEAPS of them. 

The EURX is still holding up above the 108.5 level for now. The Fed news tonight should determine its path from here I suspect!

Wednesday 22nd May (11.30 am)
USDX 4hr: I've adjusted the triangle trend lines to reflect latest S/R:

EURX 4hr: I have mentioned, many times, that price needs to hold up above the 108.5 level. Price did break up a few days ago but didn't mange to hold above this key S/R level. It is worth noting the ADX/+DMI for both of these breakouts. I have circled these on my chart.There was not much enthusiasm from the green +DMI last time. There seems to be more positive momentum this time though. It does make you wonder whether some folk seem to know just what slant Mr Bernanke is going to put on his speech!

Wednesday 22nd May (9.30 am)
We have the situation now where both the EURX and USDX are trading above their Clouds on the daily and 4hr time frame.

The EURX has just closed above the 108.5 on the daily candle though and this is a significant and bullish move. It needs to hold above this level though obviously. It did close above the 108.5 level a few days ago but did not manage to hold this level back then. Will it do so this time? The Fed Bernanke comments later tonight will be key here. Any comments from him suggesting continued easing might send the USD down and spark a 'risk on' type rally.

EURX daily Ichimoku
EURX 4hr Ichimoku
USDX daily Ichimoku
USDX 4hr Ichimoku

EURX: price needs to hold out and above the 108.5 level:

USDX 4hr: A possible bearish H&S forming here?

Wednesday 22nd May (6.45 am)
There was a shift to 'risk on' overnight after some traditionally hawkish Fed members made some dovish comments. This has kept the lid on the USD to hold it below the key 84 level whilst the EURX has rallied to be back up near its key 108.5 level!

EURX: back up to the top of its pink zone and near the breakout 108.5 level:  

Stocks chopped upwards on this news:

E/U: seems to be in a bit of a holding pattern ....waiting for Mr Bernanke to comment:

I am open minded about the next major momentum move. I had recently started to suspect that this might be a 'risk off' move. Now, though, I'm beginning to wonder if it might just be one of 'risk on'! I'll just tag along when it starts.

BTW: what does Hawkish vs Dovish mean:

Dovish refers to an economic outlook which generally supports lower interest rates. Doves take the position that inflationary pressures are low enough for low interest rates to be desirable 

The term refers to the predatory, stern nature of the hawk. In finance, hawkish refers to a negative outlook on inflation, implying that price levels are too high. "Hawkish" is an adjective typically used to describe monetary policy which favors higher interest rates, tighter monetary controls and restrictive credit policy.

Tuesday 21st May (5.50 pm)
Still not much happening on the currency front. The EURX just won't budge.... our family would say....c'mon Dover.....

Some stocks are starting to move though. Three of note and charts posted in my Stocks:May page.

Tuesday 21st May (4.25 pm)
No new TS signals but I'm not at all surprised by this!

E/U: this has respected the weekly support trend line for now. Ben Bernanke may hold its future in his hands though!

U/J: this is still lurking just below the resistance level of the 103 level and monthly 200 EMA.

Tuesday 21st May (7 am)
No new 4 hr TS signals. I'm not sure that any decent trends will form up until after Ben Bernanke speaks on Wed.

Tuesday 21st May (6.30 am)
Stocks traded flat overnight over concerns about tapering of US QE. Currencies though traded with some 'risk appetite' as the USD slipped back below the key 84 level. The metals rallied a fair bit overnight too, possibly due to the falling USD:
USDX: has slipped below the 84: 

EURX: still in the trading channel:

EURX: Also still wedged between the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 108.5 level:

These choppy markets continue to give better trading opportunities off the 30 min charts during the US session. There were 4 such possible trades last night on the E/U, G/U, Silver and Gold:
E/U: 40 pips
G/U: 70 pips
Silver: 130! ($1.30)
Gold: 400 ($40)

Many of the 4hr charts are turning and starting to look like forming 'risk on' signals. 

Monday 20th May (8 pm)
U/J: this is struggling to get over the resistance of the monthly 200 EMA. The comments out of Japan this am might not help this move though:

USDX: this is still sitting above the support of the 84 level now:

These markets are still showing Ichimoku divergence so, as usual, I'll be keen to see whether the 30 min charts during the US session offer better trading opportunities. I'd be looking to the S&P500, E/U and Swissie first off if I was awake then.

Stocks/Options: My software was sorted this morning and I've checked over some of the stocks on my watch lists. Some have now made triangle break outs. Check these out on my Stocks:May page.

Monday 20th May (5.50 pm)
All signals from last week have closed off now except for the G/U but it looks to be closing off soon. There seems to be some USD weakness just at the moment as the USDX tests the 84 breakout level.

Monday 20th May (4.30 pm)
It is a holiday in much of Europe and Canada so I'm not expecting too much today. The Yen had some spike moves on comments made earlier this morning though. I believe the USD will still be holding the reins and directing most movements this week. It is currently pulling back a bit to test the 84 breakout level but that isn't too surprising:

The EURX is still trading between the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 108.5 level.

My stock charting software has been fixed so I'll spend some time this evening checking over my stocks and will update if there is anything that jumps out.

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