Monday, April 22, 2013

Trading Week 22/04/13

Sat 27th (5.45 am)
There was more poor data out of the USA but still the market just bounced along sideways:
EURX: trying to keep above the Cloud:

S&P500: bouncing around 
E/U: bouncing around above the 1.3
G/U signal up about 50
Silver up and down

A/J: gave a TS signal off my 11pm candle: 

E/J: also gave a TS signal off my 11pm candle: 

Friday 26th April (8.50 pm)
EURX: This is looking like it might fall down through its Cloud:

No new TS signals. The A/J is close though:

Friday 26th April (4.20 pm)
USDX: another bearish signal might be setting up on the USDX. A possible bearish H&S pattern with neck line at that 82.59 level:

Friday 26th April (2 pm)
Not too much happening with FX just now. I've checked over my stock charts and have updated a few charts on my Stocks: April page.

Friday 26th April (12.20 pm)
Some upbeat Chinese business sentiment data seems to be dampening the USD and boosting 'risk on':
USDX falling again...currently at that 82.59 ....again!

EURX: bouncing up off support? 

E/U: a new bullish trend channel?

A/U: setting up for a TS long?

G/U signal is up:

USD weakness is helping the Silver TS signal: 
Gold too:

Friday 26th April (8.30 am)
EURX daily Cloud: this is still trapped between the Cloud and the 108.5 S/R level. I don't think we will get any long lasting trends until the index makes a break out, either up or down, from this channel:

EURX 4hr: this 4 hr chart shows how price has just been bouncing between the 107.5 and 108.5 level now for the last 3 weeks: 

EURX 4hr Cloud: It is worth noting that the EURX has slipped below the Cloud on the 4hr chart:

Friday 26th April (5.50 am)
The EURX has failed to push above the key 108.5 level. This is holding back any possible 'risk on' momentum with the pairs. I'm not taking any 'risk on' signals until such time as there is a break and hold above this level:
EURX: between a rock and a hard place! Currently wedged between the daily Cloud and the 108.5 level:

USDX : still above its Daily Cloud:

E/U: signals closed for -50:

G/U: signal back near entry 

Oil gave another trading opportunity during the US session:

S&P500: also gave a good US session trading opportunity:

Gold has had a close above the $1,440 level. This move did not produce a clean cut TS signal though:

Silver: gave a TS signal on my 3am candle close though:

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (7.15 pm)
USDX: There is continued USD weakness:

EURX: this hasn't rallied though 

E/U: this earlier 3 pm signal was confirmed on the 7pm close

G/U: this signal formed on the 7pm candle

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (5.30 pm)
USDX: This seems to have broken down from a bearish ascending wedge BUT the major S/R level of 82.59 is just below current price. This was previous resistance but would now act as support:

EURX: this still hasn't managed to close above the 108.5 S/R level. It might manage to do so but I'm starting to wonder. The bearish signal on the S&P500 is niggling at the back of my mind. I can't see 'risk on' happening with currencies and 'risk off' with stocks. 

You can see the significance of this 108.5 level more clearly on the weekly chart below:

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (3 pm)
E/U: a very new signal on the E/U but I really need the next candle to confirm fully. 
G/U: is close to forming a signal.

NB: the bearish signal on the S&P500 has me cautious about these 'risk on' signals.

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (2.20 pm)
USDX: There has been some USD weakness today:

EURX: this has not rallied though and is still below the key S/R level of 108.5 which keeps me cautious. I'm also conscious of the bearish signal on the S&P500: 

This USD weakness is looking like it will set up some 'risk on' TS signals on the 4hr charts. For example, the E/U. I need the 3pm candle close though:

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (9 am)
S&P500 Update: The daily Ichimoku chart shows that the bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross has formed up more fully. There have only been two similar crosses in the last 12 months.These occurred last April and October and evolved into significant pull backs. It is also worth noting though that stock prices actually rallied for a few days after those initial indicator line crosses. The latest chart, and those from last April and October, are shown below:

S&P500 daily chart as of 25/04/13

S&P500 April 2012
S&P500 October 2012

S&P500 weekly chart showing the April and October 2012 pull backs:

It is a public holiday here today and I will be away from my charts for a bit.

Thursday 25th April ANZAC Day (6 am)
Some upbeat earnings were offset by poor US data meaning stocks and currencies chopped mostly sideways. This can be seen in the 4 hr chart of the USDX and EURX and the 30 min S&P500 chart:
USDX 4hr
EURX 4hr
S&P500 30 min

EURX and USDX Daily Ichimoku:  both indices are still trading above their daily Clouds. This choppiness will continue until one of them gives up their post! The EURX is still tucked just under the major 108.5 S/R level BUT with only thin supporting Cloud beneath price. So, clearly, this index has more work to do moving up than down.

Oil: This was the only decent trade last night off 30 min charts during the US session:

Currencies:  The Kiwi has rallied a bit since its triangle break out but hasn't given a new TS signal. The most noteworthy fact is that there is little momentum evident anywhere. It is like they are all waiting for something to trigger the next big move. Look at the ADX on all of the pairs. This is down near or below the 20 or 'watermark' level indicating little to no momentum with any directional move. This isn't a bad thing though as it enables traders to see, quite easily, when the next momentum move starts.

Gold: no TS signal here

Wednesday 24th April (8.15 pm)
USDX: I'm watching for any bearish pull back here on the USDX. This would be bearish for 'risk off BUT bullish for 'risk on'. Price seems to be trading within a bearish ascending wedge on the 4hr chart:

Wednesday 24th April (4.15 pm)
EURX: is still above its Cloud and lurking just below the 108.5 S/R level. Any break and hold above this level would be quite bullish for 'risk on':

USDX: Still bullish for now BUT it also might be making for a bearish double top. The 84 level is just above price and is also the monthly 200 EMA. This might prove to be too much resistance:

I do have that bearish signal on the S&P500 daily Ichimoku chart at the back of my mind though and I'll be looking to see if this changes at all: 

GOLD: is trying to form a LONG signal but I need the 7 pm candle close to confirm:

Currencies: I am feeling a little excited though...FX wise that is! Nearly every pair has the ADX, and even many DMIs, below the 20 level. This makes it super easy to see when a new trend kicks in. This is feeling a little reminiscent of just prior to previous big moves with the currencies into trending markets. I have no idea what the next momentum move will be. I'm simply gonna try and catch it after it starts.

Wednesday 24th April (2.30 pm)
Not much new to report. Some weak AUD data holding back the A/U. The E/U hanging in near 1.3.

Wednesday 24th April (8.30 am)
Nothing new to report. I'm away for a few hours (Doctor checks).

Wednesday 24th April (7.15 am)
S&P500: My daily stock charts have just closed here. There has been a development on the Ichimoku chart that is worth noting. I mentioned during my w/e updates that I was on the lookout for a few signals to alert me of any possible pullback. These notes can be viewed here.

One of these signals has evolved as of today. The signal is:
  • A cross of the Tenakn-sen line BELOW the Kijun-sen line for the daily Cloud Ichimoku chart:
S&P500 April 2013

Two previous crosses, like this one above, evolved last April and October into significant pull backs. It is also worth noting that stock prices rallied for a few days even after the initial indicator line cross:
S&P500 April 2012

S&P500 October 2012 

Wednesday 24th April (6.30 am)
Some positive US data has dragged stocks up and this halted the slide into further 'risk off' for currencies. Yet again, the US session has been the one to dictate direction during these Ichimoku divergent markets! Apple has just reported better than expected earnings and revenue and this might evolve into some form of tonic for 'risk' appetite. This impact cannot be underestimated in assessing trading sentiment with both stocks AND currencies.

S&P500 30 min chart: note the great possible trade during the US session. The spike was due to a fake tweet suggesting the White House was bombed.

FTSE: this also gave some great trading opportunities during the London and US session:

EURX: This is still trading above the Cloud on both the daily and 4hr charts. I don't believe you will see any significant 'risk off' with stocks or currencies, if at all, until these trade BELOW the Cloud:

USDX: still trading above the Cloud on both time frames too:

Currencies: have chopped around, as expected. The TS signals did not evolve:

E/U:Still in a bullish descending wedge:


A/U: also still in a bullish descending wedge: 

Tuesday 23rd April (9 pm)
E/U: this is still trading within the wedge pattern for the time being:

Another thing bothering me is that stocks are not joining any 'risk off' run just yet:

The FTSE is currently up:

The S&P500 is not falling just yet either: 

Yet again, I think it will take the US session to get some momentum happening. This is a strong feature of Ichimoku divergence!

Tuesday 23rd April (7.05 pm)
New TS signals: there seem to be very new TS signals to short the E/U, E/J, A/J and U/J. They are very borderline at this stage though so I would prefer to see them form up more clearly or, even, to wait for the next candle close to confirm.

There is still Ichimoku Cloud divergence also so, I continue to expect choppiness:
USDX: above the Cloud on daily and 4hr time frame:

EURX: still trading above the Cloud on the daily and 4hr time frame BUT looking vulnerable! 

Tuesday 23rd April (6.10 pm)
Watching these two:

Strangely, the FTSE is up!

Tuesday 23rd April (5.30 pm)
The EUR data was worse than expected sending pairs back into 'risk off'. This may set up some signals on the next 4 hr candle close at 7 pm.

Tuesday 23rd April (5.25 pm)
A/U: bullish descending wedge still in play on the A/U, for the time being at least! The next EUR data might change things though:

Tuesday 23rd April (5 pm)
Further to what I was saying at the 4pm update: Some reasonable EUR news has sent the pairs back towards a bit of 'risk on' whilst the dire Chinese data, from, earlier didn't cause that much of a shift. There is more red flag EUR news at 5.30 pm:

Tuesday 23rd April (4 pm)
I am open minded about the next market momentum move and direction. I just want to see signs of this first, as explained here in my w/e update.

EURX and USDX: Both of these indices are trading above their daily Cloud and, hence, there is currently no clear new major momentum on any move. I want to draw your attention the thickness of the Cloud (Kumo) though for each index. The Cloud supporting the USDX is thicker than that supporting the EURX. This implies that there is more support below the USDX than for the EURX. 

A fall below the Cloud for the EURX might result in a return top a 'risk off' alignment. (That is, price below the Cloud for EURX and above the Cloud for USDX on both daily and 4hr charts). Such an alignment did occur at the end of March/beginning of April and I have noted this on the charts shown below. There was great reluctance from most of the pairs to trade with much enthusiasm in a 'risk off' manner back then though. Such periods are generally associated with major and lengthy trends. Any new shift back to a 'risk off alignment may result in more enthusiastic trends though:

I suspect that the 'Bernanke Put' was responsible for much of this earlier support but that seems to have faded from trading debate lately.

BTW: there is some red flag EUR data at 5pm.

Tuesday 23rd April (3.55 pm)
E/U: just to let you know that any new 4hr TS signal here is a long way off:

Tuesday 23rd April (3.45 pm)
Very interesting. Falls on the Chinese PMI for many pairs BUT no new TS signals on the 4hr charts! The London or US session might change this though.

Even the A/U bullish wedge is still intact...I did relax the bottom trend line a tad to cover all of the shadows:

Tuesday 23rd April (12 pm)
Aussie: The poor Chinese PMI seems to have put an end to the descending wedge on the A/U.  I thought it would fall further and faster. I'm a bit cautious with this pair as the 1.02 level is just below current price and might act to support price:

Tuesday 23rd April (10.40 am)
Chinese PMI data, due out in an hour, might shift the pairs a bit, esp the A/U.

Tuesday 23rd April (10 am)
A/U monthly: The A/U is sitting on some support of a monthly trend line ...of sorts:

A/U 4hr: A bullish descending wedge pattern seems to have jumped out just now though:
 A/U: daily


Stocks: The daily Ichimoku Cloud for the S&P500 is still not hinting at a correction just yet:

Tuesday 23rd April (6.30 am)
It appears that gains in some stock sectors helped drag stocks higher after the poor US housing data. This also seems to have rolled into some slight 'risk on' with currencies. Note the similarity in the 30 min E/U chart with the S&P500:

EURX: this is still above its daily Cloud but below another key S/R level of 108.5. A failure to get up and over this next hurdle might see a return to 'risk off'. A breach though would suggest the opposite:

USDX: This is also above its daily Cloud but also above key support of 82.59, albeit only just. A hold above this level would seem to support a further rise in the USD which might see a return to 'risk off': 

Most currencies seem to be in holding patterns:

E/U: Trading in a triangle and bounced up off the 4hr and daily 200 EMA:

E/J: TS signal now closed after giving up to 80 pips: 

A/U: chopping around on the bottom triangle trend line: 

A/J: Chopping around. I've redrawn new trend lines for a triangle here:

G/U: bouncing up off the support trend line:

U/J: TS signal now closed after giving up to 70 pips: 

Gold: still holding but is under the $1,440 S/R level: 

Monday 22nd April (8.30 pm)
Stocks: These are up in pre-market trade. US home sales data at US market open might help to direct sentiment:

Gold: Seems to be pulling back to the S/R level of $1,440 

The Gold monthly candle is pulling back too: 

E/U: I'm thinking these trend lines look better!

Monday 22nd April (6.30 pm)
There seems to be a shift back to 'risk off'.
E/U: keeping an eye on the 1.3

E/J: I'd have stop to entry here ASAP

A/U: watching the 1.02 level: 

U/J: I'd have stop to entry here soon too:

Monday 22nd April (3.30 pm)
Not much to report from the Asian session. The EURX is struggling at the 108.5 S/R level:

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