Friday 20/1/12 (5pm)
It seems as if the 'risk on with a twist' rally is going to continue. Price is just starting to move again now as European markets come on line. I'm not trading at this late stage now though. Both indices are at critical levels and, still, could move either way. I'll let the dust settle from this latest rally and join in next week if it continues. I caught some of it this week to the tune of 200 pips. A huge haul for one week!
My analysis of the technical signs was pretty good this week, you'll have to admit. I spied the potential for reversal on the weekly EURX chart. Analysis of the indices has really taken my trading to a much higher and more consistent level.
Friday 20/1/12 (10am)
Ok, so this is 'paint drying' stuff now. Price is stalling at key S/R levels all over the place whilst it decides what it's going to do next. It will probably knock off early for the w/e and do nought!
So, I'm having a retro moment here...try this guys...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Znpg9uk0j6E
Friday 20/1/12 (6am)
The USDX has continued to fall and the EURX has rallied. Both are at key levels now. The USDX is at the 4hr 200 EMA and strong S/R psychological level of 80 and the EURX at 102 and near the bear trend line. I did point out on Sunday that a reversal could be in store with the weekly inverted hammer candle on the EURX. I had also pointed out, even earlier, that any reversal could go as far as the EURX moving up to the bear trend line.
There was very mixed data out overnight and it surprises me that the rally was indeed a 'risk on' one. It was 'risk on' with a difference though. The EUR, CHF and SGD have surged against the USD, with a muted tagging along by the GBP. Not so the usual 'risk on' currencies of the CAD, NZD or AUD though, yet the AUD is up against the Yen. The CAD is often called the Loonie and, 'Loonie by name and Loonie by nature' I feel, that is why I didn't take the SHORT on this pair when I got the signal. I have found it to be rather erratic. I keep an eye on it but rarely would I be prepared to trade it! Weird also with the AUD pairs as, usually, the A/U and A/J move in tandem but the A/J has broken out and up from its triangle whereas the A/U is still trading sideways.
I have a signal to LONG the A/J, yet again, but I wouldn't take this trade unless price clears the daily 200 EMA @ 80.4.
The SHORT USD/SGD signal from earlier in the week has now moved on 200 pips. I probably should have taken this signal instead of the NZD/USD. You live and learn...next time!
I missed signals to LONG the E/U and E/J and they have also moved 200 pips or so. I was still in other trades at the time. I also missed the USD/CHF and it went on for 140 or so pips. (see chart) This is the problem with trend trading. It never rains, it pours and deciding on the best signal to take can be problematic.
For those of you who can trade the US session there was an easy 100+ pip trade on the E/J overnight. (see chart)
So, for now I'm watching the A/U and A/J for what is left of this trading week. I've made a huge pip haul already so I won't be taking any foolish risks.
Thursday 19/1/12 (5pm)
Things are delicately poised at the moment and could go either way from here. Sure, the USDX had a break, close and hold below the daily trend line on the 4 hr chart which is a bearish signal. Price has yet to close and hold below this trend line though on the daily chart. (see charts) So, price could indeed bounce back up from here. This would not surprise me given the poor data out of some countries over the last 24hrs. I'll be watching the USDX carefully to see whether the next move is 'risk on' or 'risk off'.
Thursday 19/1/12 (11.30am)
Poor NZD data resulted in me being stopped out of the other half of my N/U long trade for 62 pips. The AUD data has been mixed so I will wait to see how this is digested before taking any further trades.
My pip tally is at 202 for the week.
Thursday 19/1/12 (6am)
Some positive US data and good news concerning Greek debt has caused the EURX to rally and the USDX to fall further. The USDX has actually now just broken the daily bull trend line which is a very bearish signal. (see charts).
When I first saw this breakout on the USDX I groaned, thinking that, yet again, time zone issues would have caused me to miss most of the major moves. The interesting thing with this 'risk on' rally though is that it has moved the EUR, in pairs, far more than other 'risk on' currencies such as the AUD and CAD. I had thought that the AUD would have rocketed up in the Aussie and the A/J but, no, they're still trading within their triangles. So, too, the CAD in the Loonie; it has yet to break down.. Also, Gold and Silver have hardly moved. Curiouser and curiouser.
In Conclusion...how I'll play this latest 'risk on' rally:
So, I missed the moves and signals on the E/U, E/J and Swissie. No problem. There are other fish to catch!
~ My LONG N/U trade is now up 100 pips.
~ The SHORT USD/SGD that I flagged the other day is powering along too and up 100 pips.
~ So, for me, I'm waiting at the moment. I'm watching the A/U and the A/J closely now to try and catch this latest wave of the 'risk on' rally. There is red flag news out on the AUD at 11am Sydney time. I'll wait for that and see how that moves the AUD.
~The Loonie is also worth watching for a trend line break as confirmation of any new trend there.
~ Metals: I'd be very cautious. A falling USD often causes a rally with these. But, a falling USD because fear has gone can also cause money to move out of these and into other riskier things. Thus, the metals would then fall in value. So, I'd want lots of confluence of technicals before playing trades on the metals.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (6pm)
The USDX is still at 81 and the EURX at 101. Ho hum! I'm still waiting to see how the USDX moves with respect to the daily trend line given that this is lurking so close. There is some red flag news out of the US overnight (12.30 and 1am Sydney time) which might kick start some momentum movement.
I have updated my blog site over recent weeks and I'm sure that you would have noticed. There are now pages to tab that you can read to get more details about how I trade and how this blog is structured. I updated the "TS Outline' page a bit today which might be of help to some of you. I'm out to dinner tonight and will check in again if there is anything to report.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (2.30pm)
The USDX is currently trending down and has dipped below the 81 level with the EURX trending up just above the 101 level. I was prepared to short the USD yesterday without a trend line break on the daily USDX as there was plenty of room for this index to move down befor hitting the trend line. Now that the index is trading so close to the trend line I will wait to see how price reacts at this level. It could bounce off and up, generating a 'risk off' rally, or it could break down, generating a continued 'risk on' rally.
My A/J short was stopped out at b/e. I'm still in the other half of my Long N/U trade.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (6.30am)
I have to admit that I had trouble getting to sleep last night after such a successful first day back trading. 173 pips locked in is fantastic by anyone's standards.
As suspected, the risk on rally did stall as the USDX moved back to the key resistance/support area of 81. Price is actually stuck there as I write. The ascent of the EURX paused as well and it is back at the key 101 level (see charts). They both seem to be more creatures of habit than even I am! Maybe that's why I'm so good at reading them!
Thus, my caution last night in locking in early profit on my trades seems justified. My second half of the Gold trade was stopped out at b/e back at its trend line. The A/J and N/U rose overnight but have now retreated to where they were when I left them. They have stops at b/e so I will just leave them for now.
I am going to wait and see how the indices move from their current key levels, and see whether the 'risk on' rally picks up again, before further trading. This is the supreme beauty of trend trading. You just trade what you see, Long or Short, raw price action and the charts will 'tell' you how to trade.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (9pm)
I've arrived home from the movies to see my trades in some nice profit. I am aware that there is not a lot of scheduled red flag news overnight and, what has been out, has been good. Although this augers well for the current 'risk on' rally, I am conscious of the USDX approaching the daily trend line. This could stall further trend movement. For this reason I have locked in early profit on the A/J and N/U. I had forgotten to mention earlier that I had also taken a LONG on Gold and this reached profit on half the trade already.
Results so far: A/J: 40 pips N/U: 33pips Gold: 100 pips TOTAL = 173 pips.
The remaining half of these trades are running now at b/e so I can sleep easy for my first night back trading after many weeks off.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (5pm)
I have an extra signal to LONG the G/U. Interestingly, no signal to LONG the E/U or E/J. I suspect issues when the USDX falls further to hit the 81 level. Time will tell whether I should have waited, as I said I would, to short the USD until after the breach of the trend line on this index! But, having not traded for some weeks I had slightly itchy fingers. It may yet cost me! We'll see.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (1.30pm)
Good data out of China has triggered a 'risk on' rally.
I have noted TS signals to LONG the A/U, A/J, Gold, Silver and NZD/USD and to SHORT the USD/SGD. I would expect other pairs to trigger signals after the next candle close too if this 'risk on' approach keeps up.
I can not trade all of these obviously as it would exceed my risk management rules. I have taken the A/J and the N/U. Why the A/J over the A/U? The A/J was breaking out of a triangle pattern whereas the A/U was heading up into a triangle trend line.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (7.45am)
As suspected with the US holiday, not much happened overnight. The USDX and EURX have both drifted sideways. (see charts below). There is some significant data out of China today during the Asian session. This may trigger some moves so I'll look again then @ 1pm Sydney time.
Gold has to do something soon though....surely?
Monday 16/1/12 (9.30pm)
Nothing much has happened. It looks like the market gap has filled though. I'll wait until tomorrow given the US holiday.
Please make sure you read through the Indices Analysis and the post below to see what I'm looking out for this week.
Monday 16/1/12 (10am)
There were some gaps at market open with the USDX gapping up and the EURX gapping down. This is hardly surprising given the news releases concerning the S&P downgrades of 9 Euro zone countries.
It seems as if the 'risk on with a twist' rally is going to continue. Price is just starting to move again now as European markets come on line. I'm not trading at this late stage now though. Both indices are at critical levels and, still, could move either way. I'll let the dust settle from this latest rally and join in next week if it continues. I caught some of it this week to the tune of 200 pips. A huge haul for one week!
My analysis of the technical signs was pretty good this week, you'll have to admit. I spied the potential for reversal on the weekly EURX chart. Analysis of the indices has really taken my trading to a much higher and more consistent level.
Friday 20/1/12 (10am)
Ok, so this is 'paint drying' stuff now. Price is stalling at key S/R levels all over the place whilst it decides what it's going to do next. It will probably knock off early for the w/e and do nought!
So, I'm having a retro moment here...try this guys...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Znpg9uk0j6E
Friday 20/1/12 (6am)
The USDX has continued to fall and the EURX has rallied. Both are at key levels now. The USDX is at the 4hr 200 EMA and strong S/R psychological level of 80 and the EURX at 102 and near the bear trend line. I did point out on Sunday that a reversal could be in store with the weekly inverted hammer candle on the EURX. I had also pointed out, even earlier, that any reversal could go as far as the EURX moving up to the bear trend line.
There was very mixed data out overnight and it surprises me that the rally was indeed a 'risk on' one. It was 'risk on' with a difference though. The EUR, CHF and SGD have surged against the USD, with a muted tagging along by the GBP. Not so the usual 'risk on' currencies of the CAD, NZD or AUD though, yet the AUD is up against the Yen. The CAD is often called the Loonie and, 'Loonie by name and Loonie by nature' I feel, that is why I didn't take the SHORT on this pair when I got the signal. I have found it to be rather erratic. I keep an eye on it but rarely would I be prepared to trade it! Weird also with the AUD pairs as, usually, the A/U and A/J move in tandem but the A/J has broken out and up from its triangle whereas the A/U is still trading sideways.
I have a signal to LONG the A/J, yet again, but I wouldn't take this trade unless price clears the daily 200 EMA @ 80.4.
The SHORT USD/SGD signal from earlier in the week has now moved on 200 pips. I probably should have taken this signal instead of the NZD/USD. You live and learn...next time!
I missed signals to LONG the E/U and E/J and they have also moved 200 pips or so. I was still in other trades at the time. I also missed the USD/CHF and it went on for 140 or so pips. (see chart) This is the problem with trend trading. It never rains, it pours and deciding on the best signal to take can be problematic.
For those of you who can trade the US session there was an easy 100+ pip trade on the E/J overnight. (see chart)
So, for now I'm watching the A/U and A/J for what is left of this trading week. I've made a huge pip haul already so I won't be taking any foolish risks.
Thursday 19/1/12 (5pm)
Things are delicately poised at the moment and could go either way from here. Sure, the USDX had a break, close and hold below the daily trend line on the 4 hr chart which is a bearish signal. Price has yet to close and hold below this trend line though on the daily chart. (see charts) So, price could indeed bounce back up from here. This would not surprise me given the poor data out of some countries over the last 24hrs. I'll be watching the USDX carefully to see whether the next move is 'risk on' or 'risk off'.
Thursday 19/1/12 (11.30am)
Poor NZD data resulted in me being stopped out of the other half of my N/U long trade for 62 pips. The AUD data has been mixed so I will wait to see how this is digested before taking any further trades.
My pip tally is at 202 for the week.
Thursday 19/1/12 (6am)
Some positive US data and good news concerning Greek debt has caused the EURX to rally and the USDX to fall further. The USDX has actually now just broken the daily bull trend line which is a very bearish signal. (see charts).
In Conclusion...how I'll play this latest 'risk on' rally:
So, I missed the moves and signals on the E/U, E/J and Swissie. No problem. There are other fish to catch!
~ My LONG N/U trade is now up 100 pips.
~ The SHORT USD/SGD that I flagged the other day is powering along too and up 100 pips.
~ So, for me, I'm waiting at the moment. I'm watching the A/U and the A/J closely now to try and catch this latest wave of the 'risk on' rally. There is red flag news out on the AUD at 11am Sydney time. I'll wait for that and see how that moves the AUD.
~The Loonie is also worth watching for a trend line break as confirmation of any new trend there.
~ Metals: I'd be very cautious. A falling USD often causes a rally with these. But, a falling USD because fear has gone can also cause money to move out of these and into other riskier things. Thus, the metals would then fall in value. So, I'd want lots of confluence of technicals before playing trades on the metals.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (6pm)
The USDX is still at 81 and the EURX at 101. Ho hum! I'm still waiting to see how the USDX moves with respect to the daily trend line given that this is lurking so close. There is some red flag news out of the US overnight (12.30 and 1am Sydney time) which might kick start some momentum movement.
I have updated my blog site over recent weeks and I'm sure that you would have noticed. There are now pages to tab that you can read to get more details about how I trade and how this blog is structured. I updated the "TS Outline' page a bit today which might be of help to some of you. I'm out to dinner tonight and will check in again if there is anything to report.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (2.30pm)
The USDX is currently trending down and has dipped below the 81 level with the EURX trending up just above the 101 level. I was prepared to short the USD yesterday without a trend line break on the daily USDX as there was plenty of room for this index to move down befor hitting the trend line. Now that the index is trading so close to the trend line I will wait to see how price reacts at this level. It could bounce off and up, generating a 'risk off' rally, or it could break down, generating a continued 'risk on' rally.
My A/J short was stopped out at b/e. I'm still in the other half of my Long N/U trade.
Wednesday 18/1/12 (6.30am)
I have to admit that I had trouble getting to sleep last night after such a successful first day back trading. 173 pips locked in is fantastic by anyone's standards.
As suspected, the risk on rally did stall as the USDX moved back to the key resistance/support area of 81. Price is actually stuck there as I write. The ascent of the EURX paused as well and it is back at the key 101 level (see charts). They both seem to be more creatures of habit than even I am! Maybe that's why I'm so good at reading them!
Thus, my caution last night in locking in early profit on my trades seems justified. My second half of the Gold trade was stopped out at b/e back at its trend line. The A/J and N/U rose overnight but have now retreated to where they were when I left them. They have stops at b/e so I will just leave them for now.
I am going to wait and see how the indices move from their current key levels, and see whether the 'risk on' rally picks up again, before further trading. This is the supreme beauty of trend trading. You just trade what you see, Long or Short, raw price action and the charts will 'tell' you how to trade.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (9pm)
I've arrived home from the movies to see my trades in some nice profit. I am aware that there is not a lot of scheduled red flag news overnight and, what has been out, has been good. Although this augers well for the current 'risk on' rally, I am conscious of the USDX approaching the daily trend line. This could stall further trend movement. For this reason I have locked in early profit on the A/J and N/U. I had forgotten to mention earlier that I had also taken a LONG on Gold and this reached profit on half the trade already.
Results so far: A/J: 40 pips N/U: 33pips Gold: 100 pips TOTAL = 173 pips.
The remaining half of these trades are running now at b/e so I can sleep easy for my first night back trading after many weeks off.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (5pm)
I have an extra signal to LONG the G/U. Interestingly, no signal to LONG the E/U or E/J. I suspect issues when the USDX falls further to hit the 81 level. Time will tell whether I should have waited, as I said I would, to short the USD until after the breach of the trend line on this index! But, having not traded for some weeks I had slightly itchy fingers. It may yet cost me! We'll see.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (1.30pm)
Good data out of China has triggered a 'risk on' rally.
I have noted TS signals to LONG the A/U, A/J, Gold, Silver and NZD/USD and to SHORT the USD/SGD. I would expect other pairs to trigger signals after the next candle close too if this 'risk on' approach keeps up.
I can not trade all of these obviously as it would exceed my risk management rules. I have taken the A/J and the N/U. Why the A/J over the A/U? The A/J was breaking out of a triangle pattern whereas the A/U was heading up into a triangle trend line.
Tuesday 17/1/12 (7.45am)
As suspected with the US holiday, not much happened overnight. The USDX and EURX have both drifted sideways. (see charts below). There is some significant data out of China today during the Asian session. This may trigger some moves so I'll look again then @ 1pm Sydney time.
Monday 16/1/12 (9.30pm)
Nothing much has happened. It looks like the market gap has filled though. I'll wait until tomorrow given the US holiday.
Please make sure you read through the Indices Analysis and the post below to see what I'm looking out for this week.
Monday 16/1/12 (10am)
There were some gaps at market open with the USDX gapping up and the EURX gapping down. This is hardly surprising given the news releases concerning the S&P downgrades of 9 Euro zone countries.
There is a public holiday in the USA for Monday 16th so caution is needed as the markets may be a bit quiet. I have my eye on a few charts though in light of my analysis of the indices (posted over weekend). I have posted these 4 hr charts below and I'll be looking for reactions at current price levels, either up or down, based on how the USD and EUR continue to move. I obviously won't be taking all of these trades but I'll be watching to see which one of them, if any, sets up best and first.
AUD/USD: near a bottom trend line.
AUD/JPY
GBP/USD: esp if it breaks below 1.525...a significant new low.
USD/CAD
NZD/USD: near a bottom trend line.
Gold: near a bottom trend line.
USD/SGD: near a bottom trend line and a good ADX set up.
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