Monday, October 3, 2011

Trading Week 3/10/2011

End of week tally: 519 pips!

Trade Management Issues.

I've had a great week using my TS system to trade FX. With better money/trade management though it could have been a fantastic week. I need to work on trade management. This is as much a matter of psychology as anything else though!

For example, at the moment I trade 2 parcels on each lot. I set a 100 pip profit target on one parcel and leave the other parcel to run. Well, that’s the idea! What I have been finding myself doing though is closing the trades out once the first profit target is reached or when there is a healthy profit. This week I have done this again and, in doing so, compromised myself of many extra pips.

For example. The following trades I took are currently up to the following pip profits:

A/U: 160 A/J: 100 GBP/AUD: 250! GBP/CAD: 140

Like I said, I need to work on my trade management! Well, this is a ‘work in progress’.

Friday 7/10/11
TS results from yesterday:
Long A/U: 100 pips
Long A/J: 19 pips
Short U/CAD: - 40 pips
Short GBP/AUD: 175 pips
Short GBP/CAD: 25 pips
TOTAL: 279 pips Another fantastic TradeSpotting week!

Thursday 6/10/11
I have woken this morning to see signals to go LONG on the A/U, A/J and SHORT on the USD/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/CAD. Of course, these trades are highly correlated. I will track these trades in the interest of testing my TS system. It is worth noting here too that the A/U, A/J and, for the last month, the U/C and G/A trades are counter trend trades. I am still assessing whether signals on my TS system should only be taken in the direction of the current trend.

Wednesday 5/10/11
There has been a reversal in trend for the USD and EUR over the last few hours. The USD is dropping like a rock whilst I write this update! US debt default talk may have contributed to this but this result also conforms to the technical evidence as well. The USDX has stalled at the strong S/R level of 79/80 which is also the daily pivot, weekly 200 EMA and weekly pivot R1 level. Thus, lots of reasons for at least a pause or even reversal in price action on this index. As mentioned earlier this week, I will be very cautious with trading at these levels and at this time of the week. NFP is out this Friday, so, with this and all the volatility, I will preserve my pips for the week. Also, the ADX on many of the pairs has stalled and started to turn back down. It might take a couple of sessions for this to return to the water level (20 level) or to a point where new signals can be easily observed thus, another reason to watch and wait.

Tuesday 4/10/11
Results from Monday's TS signals:
A/U short: closed out for 156 pips
G/U short: closed out for 84 pips.
Total gain: 240 pips!

Further bad news overnight about problem Greek debt helped to continue the prevailing trend of a strengthening USD and a weakening EUR. Thus, my TS trade signals delivered plenty of pips. My system is based on technicals so fundamental impact, by way of news and announcements etc, is always a threat to this, and any, technical trading system.

No new signals just now. Some signals are still running from late last week though, on Friday, when I did not trade: short on E/U, long on USD/SGD and a short on NZD/USD. Two signals came overnight but I missed these as well: shorts on A/J and E/J. These two trades are fairly correlated with the short on the A/U though.

So, more than two weeks worth of pips in just one night using TradeSpotting!

NB: I am watching silver, XAGUSD, with interest though as the ADX is well below the waterline on this pair. A perfect scenario for being able to easily spot the next trend using TS.

The USDX looks to be stalling and a bearish candle pattern is forming on the 4 hr chart.

Monday 3/10/11
Monday has been a public holiday in Aussie land so my review is a bit delayed. As I write, the USDX is currently struggling in its move upwards against strong resistance at the 79/80 level which is also the weekly 200 EMA. I will be cautious trading with the index at this level. It could retrace somewhat after last months huge up move. It is also Non Farm Payroll this Friday which requires caution too. Also,I will be very cautious shorting any JPY pairs as there could be intervention by the BOJ at the current low levels.
Signals: I have signals to SHORT the AUD/USD and the GBP/USD. I am not going to take these trades just yet though due to the USDX butting up against the key resistance level. Time will tell whether I should have taken these though! I did take these in my simulated account though so as to assess results.

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